Football history is littered with games that look like blowouts on paper but tell a completely different story if you actually watched the tape. The Jaguars vs New England matchup is exactly that. Most folks just see the final score—like that 32-16 win for Jacksonville at Wembley Stadium in late 2024—and assume it was a one-sided beatdown from the jump.
It wasn't. Honestly, for about twenty minutes, it looked like the Patriots were going to run the Jaguars out of London and maybe even out of the league.
New England jumped to a 10-0 lead. Drake Maye, a rookie at the time, was slicing through the Jags' defense like a veteran. Then, the wheels fell off for the Pats and everything clicked for the Jags. It’s these weird, momentum-shifting swings that define this matchup. When these two teams meet, you aren’t just watching a game; you’re watching two franchises trying to find their identity in a post-dynasty, post-rebuild world.
The London Pivot That Changed Everything
If you want to understand where these teams stand right now, you have to look at October 2024. The atmosphere at Wembley was tense.
Jacksonville was sitting at 1-5. People were calling for Doug Pederson’s job. On the other side, New England was struggling with its own 1-5 start, desperate to see if Drake Maye was truly "the guy." For the first quarter, he was. Maye led an 11-play opening drive that resulted in a touchdown to JaMycal Hasty. The Patriots were dominating time of possession, holding the ball for nearly 13 minutes while the Jaguars barely touched it.
Then came the second quarter. Everything changed in a span of about ten minutes.
- The Lawrence-to-Thomas Connection: Trevor Lawrence found Brian Thomas Jr. for a 58-yard bomb.
- The Ground Game: Tank Bigsby started punishing the New England front seven, eventually racking up 118 yards and two touchdowns.
- The Special Teams Dagger: Parker Washington returned a punt 96 yards for a touchdown. It was the longest in Jaguars history.
Just like that, 22 unanswered points. The game was effectively over by halftime. This specific game serves as a microcosm of the Jaguars vs New England rivalry: one team usually starts hot, but the team that can actually run the ball and limit turnovers wins the day. Jacksonville outrushed New England 171 to 38 in that contest. You can’t win in the NFL if you can’t run, and New England found that out the hard way.
Drake Maye vs. Trevor Lawrence: The Statistical Reality
People love to compare these two. It makes sense. Both were high draft picks. Both carry the weight of an entire city on their shoulders. But when you look at the 2025 season stats, the gap is narrower than the "Lawrence is a bust" crowd wants to admit.
In 2025, Drake Maye actually put up monster numbers for a young quarterback. We’re talking 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns. He’s efficient, too, completing 72% of his passes. Lawrence, by comparison, had 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns with a 60.9% completion rate.
Wait.
Why did the Jaguars win the 2025 AFC South? Because Lawrence turned into a red-zone rushing threat, tallying 9 rushing touchdowns. He’s learned to use his legs when the pocket collapses, something Maye is still figuring out despite having decent mobility.
Breaking Down the Numbers
- Passing Yards: Maye (4,394) vs. Lawrence (4,007)
- Passing TDs: Maye (31) vs. Lawrence (29)
- Rushing TDs: Lawrence (9) vs. Maye (4)
- Interceptions: Lawrence (12) vs. Maye (8)
Maye is the better pure passer right now. He’s more accurate. However, Lawrence has that "clutch" factor that helped Jacksonville finish 13-5 in 2025. He’s playing winning football, even if the stats aren't as "pretty" as the fantasy football community wants them to be.
Why the 2026 Matchup Matters
Looking ahead to the 2026 season, the NFL has already set the stage. The Jaguars vs New England game will take place at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. This isn't just another game on the calendar. New England is coming off a 14-3 season in 2025 where they won the AFC East. Jacksonville is the defending AFC South champ.
This is a heavyweight fight between two teams that have finally completed their rebuilds.
The Patriots’ defense, led by a unit that ranked #1 in total yards against last season, is a nightmare. They play a suffocating style of man-to-man coverage. But the Jaguars have Travis Hunter now. Having a guy who can play both sides of the ball—wide receiver and cornerback—gives Jacksonville a tactical advantage that most teams can't match. If Hunter can lock down New England's top threat and then flip over to catch a 40-yarder from Lawrence, the Patriots' defensive schemes might just fall apart.
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Misconceptions About the Rivalry
Most fans think the Patriots still own the Jaguars because of the Brady era.
Remember the 2017 AFC Championship? Myles Jack wasn't down. That game still haunts North Florida. But that was a lifetime ago in football years. The modern reality is that the Jaguars have won the last two meetings. They aren't scared of the Flying Elvis logo anymore.
Another misconception is that the Patriots are a "boring" defensive team. Under the current coaching staff, they’ve opened up the playbook for Maye. They’re aggressive. They take shots downfield. If you're expecting a 13-10 slog, you’re probably going to be disappointed. These teams are built to score.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you are tracking the next Jaguars vs New England game, there are three specific things you need to watch to predict the winner:
- Third-Down Conversion Rates: In their last meeting, New England struggled to stay on the field because they couldn't convert on 3rd and long. Watch if they’ve improved their short-yardage packages.
- The Turnover Margin: Jacksonville’s defense in 2025 was elite at forcing fumbles (9) and interceptions (22). If Lawrence protects the ball, Jacksonville usually wins.
- Home Field Humidity: Jacksonville in early autumn is a swamp. If the NFL schedules this game in September or October, the "heat factor" heavily favors the Jags. New England players often struggle with the cramping and exhaustion that comes with Florida humidity.
Keep an eye on the injury reports leading up to the 2026 season opener. With the Jaguars adding pieces like Travis Hunter and New England solidifying their offensive line, the depth charts will look vastly different than they did during that London game in 2024. The era of New England dominance is over, but the era of Maye vs. Lawrence is just getting started.