NFL rivalries are usually about long-term hate, but the jaguars and texans game this past November was about something else entirely. It was about a collapse. A total, "how did that just happen" meltdown that basically rewrote the record books for all the wrong reasons if you're a fan in Jacksonville. You've probably seen the highlights of the fourth quarter, but the box score doesn't really capture the sheer panic that set in at NRG Stadium.
Honestly, the Jaguars had this. They were up 29-10. It’s the kind of lead where you start checking other scores on your phone and thinking about the post-game meal. Then, the wheels didn't just come off—they disintegrated.
The 19-Point Melt: What Really Happened
Before this specific jaguars and texans game, Jacksonville was 53-0 in franchise history when leading by 19 or more points. They were the only team left in the NFL that had never blown a lead that big. That streak is dead now.
Houston scored 26 points in the fourth quarter. Read that again. Twenty-six.
- Davis Mills was the guy under center because C.J. Stroud was out with a concussion.
- The Texans defense, led by Will Anderson Jr., turned into a brick wall.
- Jacksonville managed only 11 total yards in the final 15 minutes.
It was ugly. The Jaguars' offense went three-and-out twice in a row while the stadium was shaking. You could feel the momentum shifting like a physical weight. Mills, who most people figured would just be a "hold the fort" backup, ended up scrambling 14 yards for the go-ahead score with only 31 seconds left.
Why the Defense Couldn't Get a Stop
Jaguars coach Liam Coen was pretty blunt afterward. He basically said they just needed one stop. One. But the Texans' offensive line, which had been shaky earlier in the season, suddenly started opening lanes for 14-play drives. Nico Collins was a nightmare for the Jags' secondary, racking up 136 yards. It felt like every time the Texans needed a third-down conversion, Collins was just... there.
Then there was the ending. Trevor Lawrence actually got them into Houston territory with 21 seconds left. There was a glimmer of hope for kicker Cam Little—who had already hit a legendary 68-yarder earlier in the season—to save the day. But Will Anderson Jr. strip-sacked Lawrence, and Sheldon Rankins rumbled 32 yards for a "fumble-six" as time expired. 36-29. Game over.
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Breaking Down the Lawrence vs. Stroud Rivalry
Even though Stroud missed the November meeting, the jaguars and texans game is now defined by these two quarterbacks. Since 2023, the AFC South has essentially become their personal playground.
| Quarterback | Head-to-Head Record | Vibe Check |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 1-4 vs Stroud/Texans recently | High ceiling, but the "clutch" factor is still being debated after that November fumble. |
| C.J. Stroud | 3-1 against Lawrence | Already has two division titles under his belt and seems to have the Jags' number. |
The stats between them are surprisingly close if you look at the 2025 season totals. Lawrence actually led in passing touchdowns for a good chunk of the year, but Stroud’s efficiency and the way DeMeco Ryans has built that Houston defense around him makes the Texans feel like the more complete "unit."
When they met in Week 3, the Jaguars actually won 17-10. That game was a defensive slugfest where the Jags' pass rush finally looked like the elite group everyone expected. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker were all over Stroud. It’s wild how the same two teams can play two games in one season that look like they belong to different sports.
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The Playoff Picture Aftermath
That November loss nearly ruined the Jaguars' season. They fell to 5-4 while the Colts were surging. But if you look at how the regular season finished up this January, both teams actually made it.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4): Won the division on an 8-game winning streak.
- Houston Texans (12-5): Secured the No. 5 seed with a 9-game winning streak of their own.
It's rare to see two teams in the same division get that hot at the same time. The Texans just finished beating the Steelers 30-6 in the Wild Card round, and they're heading to New England next. Meanwhile, the Jags are coming off a heartbreaking 27-24 loss to the Bills. The gap between these two teams is basically razor-thin right now.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're betting on or just following the next jaguars and texans game, keep these specific trends in mind. The "narrative" is usually wrong, but the data from 2025 tells a very specific story about how these matchups go.
- Watch the Fourth Quarter Yardage: In their last three meetings, the team that wins the "time of possession" in the 4th quarter has won the game. Jacksonville's inability to run the ball late with Travis Etienne Jr. cost them the November game.
- The "Home Field" Myth: Interestingly, the road team has performed remarkably well in this rivalry lately. Don't assume a game in Jacksonville is an automatic edge for the Jags; the Texans seem to love the grass at EverBank.
- Kicker Impact: Cam Little is a weapon. If the game is within 60 yards, he's a threat. Houston's strategy has been to force Lawrence into "hero ball" situations to avoid letting Little win it with his leg.
The rivalry has shifted from a one-sided Houston dominance to a high-stakes chess match. Jacksonville has the talent, but Houston has the "finish." Until the Jags prove they can hold a lead against a DeMeco Ryans-led squad, the mental edge stays in Texas.
Follow the injury reports for the next meeting closely, specifically the left guard spot for Jacksonville. In the 36-29 loss, the absence of Ezra Cleveland was the quietest reason why the pocket collapsed on those final drives. Protecting Lawrence isn't just a goal; it's the only way they beat the Texans' front four.