Jags and Colts Game: Why Jacksonville Finally Owns This Rivalry

Honestly, if you've been following the AFC South for the last decade, you know the script. The Indianapolis Colts usually show up with high expectations, and the Jacksonville Jaguars find a way to make things weird. But something shifted recently. It isn't just about a fluke win anymore; it's about a fundamental change in how these two teams match up on the grass.

The most recent jags and colts game on December 28, 2025, proved that the "Jacksonville Jinx" is a very real thing for Indy. The Jaguars walked into Lucas Oil Stadium and ground out a 23-17 victory, moving them within a single win of a division title. It wasn't the prettiest game. In fact, it was kind of a mess. Trevor Lawrence ran for two touchdowns, but the Jags also coughed up two turnovers in the red zone. Despite the mistakes, Jacksonville found a way to win—a trait they didn't have a few years back.

The 2025 Season: A Shift in Power

Jacksonville didn't just win that December game; they swept the Colts in 2025. Earlier in the year, specifically on December 7, they absolutely dismantled Indianapolis 36-19 at EverBank Stadium. That game was a statement. Travis Etienne Jr. went off for two touchdowns, and the defense made life miserable for the Colts' quarterbacks.

It’s wild to think that the Colts haven't won a game in Jacksonville since 2014. That is an absurd stat in a league designed for parity.

Basically, the Jaguars have figured out the formula. They stop the run—holding Jonathan Taylor to just 74 yards in that December meeting—and they force the Colts into passing situations where their young secondary can feast. Cornerback Jarrian Jones has become a bit of a nightmare for Indy’s receivers, grabbing a crucial fourth-quarter interception in the latest match to seal the deal.

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The Heart-Stopper in 2024

We can't talk about the jags and colts game without mentioning the 37-34 thriller back in October 2024. That was "Throwback Sunday" for Jacksonville, and they played like a vintage squad. Trevor Lawrence threw for 371 yards, and Brian Thomas Jr. looked like a superstar in the making with an 85-yard touchdown catch.

The game was a roller coaster. Joe Flacco, who seems to play forever, rallied the Colts from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to tie it at 34-34. It felt like Jacksonville was going to choke. Then, rookie kicker Cam Little stepped up and nailed a 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds left.

That win was massive. It snapped an 0-4 start for the Jaguars and arguably saved Doug Pederson’s job at the time. It also highlighted a major weakness for the Colts: they simply cannot stop the big play when the Jaguars are clicking.

Breaking Down the Numbers

If you look at the all-time series, the Colts still lead 28-22. But that's a legacy stat.

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Since 2016, the Jaguars are actually 13-7 against Indianapolis. That is a significant sample size. It tells us that the "Little Brother" in the AFC South has grown up.

What’s interesting is how the games are won. The Jaguars tend to dominate at home with a physical defense—averaging nearly three sacks per game against Indy over the last few years—while the games in Indianapolis are usually much tighter affairs. The Colts managed to steal a 26-23 overtime win in the 2024 season finale, but even that felt like a struggle.

Key Factors for Future Matchups

1. The Jonathan Taylor Effect: When Taylor goes over 100 yards, the Colts usually win. When the Jags keep him under 80, they almost always win. It’s that simple.
2. Trevor Lawrence’s Growth: Lawrence has become much more comfortable against Gus Bradley’s defensive scheme. He’s stopped forcing the ball into tight windows and started taking what the "Cover 3" look gives him.
3. Kicking Matters: Cam Little has been a weapon for Jacksonville. In a rivalry where so many games are decided by three points or fewer, having a guy who can hit from 50+ is a luxury Indy hasn't always matched.

The Colts are currently in a bit of a tailspin, having lost six consecutive games toward the end of the 2025 season. They’re a good football team on paper, but they lack the "clutch" factor that Lawrence and the Jags have developed.

What to Watch for Next

If you're betting on the next jags and colts game, keep an eye on the injury report regarding the trenches. Jacksonville’s offensive line has been hit or miss, and when Laiatu Latu or Zaire Franklin get pressure, Lawrence can get rattled. However, the Jaguars' defensive front, led by Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, is currently one of the most productive units in the AFC.

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The rivalry has moved past the Peyton Manning era of Indy dominance. It’s now a gritty, defensive-led battle where the Jaguars often have the psychological edge.

To stay ahead of the next matchup, analyze the Jaguars' rushing defense rankings. If they remain in the top five, it’s going to be another long day for the Indianapolis backfield. Also, watch the development of Brian Thomas Jr.; his ability to take the top off the defense is what opens up the underneath routes that Lawrence loves.

Check the official NFL schedule for the 2026 dates, but expect the Jacksonville home game to be the one where the streak likely continues.