Fantasy football is basically a giant game of "who can find the diamond in the dumpster." Every year, we look for that late-round flyer who ends up winning leagues. Honestly, after what we saw in 2025, the Jacory Croskey-Merritt ADP conversation is getting pretty heated as we head into the 2026 drafts.
He was a seventh-round pick out of Arizona who most people hadn't even heard of because of some weird NCAA eligibility drama. But then he showed up in Washington. And then Brian Robinson Jr. got traded. And then Austin Ekeler went down with a torn Achilles.
Suddenly, JCM wasn't just a roster filler; he was a league-winner.
The Reality of Jacory Croskey-Merritt ADP Right Now
If you're looking at current data, the market is a bit split. On platforms like Sleeper, his ADP is hovering around #136 overall (RB42), but if you're in high-stakes leagues or more "sharp" rooms like NFFC, you'll see him going as high as #85 overall (RB30).
Why the massive gap?
It’s the "rookie wall" effect. Late last season, Chris Rodriguez Jr. started poaching a lot of the early-down work, which cooled off the JCM hype. People have short memories. They forget he led all rookies with 8 rushing touchdowns in 2025. They forget he put up 150 yards and two scores against the Chargers in Week 5.
Basically, you’ve got one group of drafters who see him as a flash in the pan and another group who sees a 24-year-old with fresh legs and home-run speed.
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He finished the year with 805 rushing yards and a 4.6 average. Those aren't just "lucky" numbers. That’s production.
What the Experts are Actually Saying
Drafting him isn't a slam dunk, though.
Experts like Field Yates have called him a "moldable player," which is scout-speak for "he's got the talent but needs to stop missing blocks." That’s the catch. If JCM can’t protect Jayden Daniels, he won't be on the field for third downs. That caps his ceiling in PPR leagues.
Why the Market is Sleeping on the Commanders Backfield
Washington is in a weird spot. David Blough is the new offensive coordinator, and there’s a lot of chatter about them bringing in a veteran via free agency—maybe someone like Javonte Williams or even a reunion with a veteran presence.
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If they don't? JCM becomes the most valuable late-round asset in the draft.
Think about it. He’s 5'11", 208 lbs, and runs a 4.41. He’s got the "one-cut" ability that works perfectly in a zone-read system with a mobile QB. When the defense has to freeze because they're terrified of Jayden Daniels keeping the ball, JCM is gone.
His 72-yard touchdown against the Cowboys on Christmas Day was a perfect example. He hit the hole, made one guy miss, and then nobody touched him. That’s the explosive upside that justifies a higher Jacory Croskey-Merritt ADP than what the "casual" rankings suggest.
Breaking Down the 2025 Season splits
- Weeks 1-9: JCM was the man. High volume, high efficiency.
- Weeks 10-14: The slump. Teams figured out the Washington run game, and the offensive line struggled.
- Weeks 15-18: The resurgence. He popped off for two 100-yard games in the final three weeks.
This tells us he’s resilient. He didn't just fade away when things got tough. He fought back and took the job back from Rodriguez when it mattered for the Commanders' pride.
The "Age" Concern is a Myth
People keep pointing out that he’s 24 years old. "He's too old for a second-year back," they say.
Who cares?
Running backs have a shelf life anyway. We aren't looking for a ten-year career in fantasy. We’re looking for a two-to-three-year window where they produce. JCM has very low mileage because he only played one game in his final year at Arizona. His legs are essentially "younger" than a 21-year-old who carried the ball 300 times in the SEC.
Actionable Strategy for Your Draft
If you are sitting in a draft and it's the 8th or 9th round, and you see Jacory Croskey-Merritt still on the board, you take him. Every time.
The path to him being a top-15 RB is much clearer than people want to admit. If Washington focuses on the draft for their defense and offensive line—which they should—this backfield is JCM's to lose.
Don't let the "7th round draft capital" scare you off. The Commanders traded their starter to make room for him. That’s the only vote of confidence you need.
Next Steps for Your Draft Prep:
- Monitor the Commanders Free Agency: If they sign a big-name RB, JCM's value drops to a "handicap" tier. If they sign a "jag" (just a guy), JCM is the clear RB1.
- Check Training Camp Reports: Specifically, look for mentions of his "pass protection." If he's improved there, he's a three-down back.
- Target him in the Round 8-10 range: Don't reach into the 5th, but don't wait until the 12th because he won't be there.
The Jacory Croskey-Merritt ADP is currently a bargain. By August, it probably won't be. Grab the discount while you can.