It was one of those weird, late-summer nights where the stats didn't make any sense until they suddenly did. August 12, 2025. The Tampa Bay Rays were in town, and honestly, they probably expected to handle a guy they had traded away just months earlier. Instead, Jacob Lopez went out and absolutely carved them up. It wasn't just a win; it was a statement from a 26th-round pick who had spent years bouncing around the Rays' own system before they shipped him off to the Athletics.
Lopez tossed seven scoreless innings. He struck out nine. Zero walks.
When you look at the Jacob Lopez vs Rays matchup from that night, it feels like a classic "revenge game" scenario, but the reality is more technical than just emotional. Lopez isn't a flame-thrower. He’s a 6-foot-4 lefty who lives in the high 80s and low 90s, basically winning with deception and a slider that moves like it’s falling off a table. The Rays, a team famous for finding these exact types of "diamond in the rough" pitchers, got a taste of their own medicine.
The Trade That Changed Everything
Baseball is a business of margins. In 2019, the San Francisco Giants traded Jacob Lopez to the Rays for Joe McCarthy. Fast forward a few years, and after a stint with Tommy John surgery in 2022, Lopez finally broke into the bigs with Tampa in 2023. He was okay. Nothing spectacular. He had a 4.38 ERA in very limited action and mostly played the role of the "shuttle guy"—the player who goes back and forth between Triple-A Durham and the majors more times than he can count.
But then the Athletics entered the picture. They saw something in his horizontal movement and his low three-quarters arm slot. By the time 2025 rolled around, Lopez was wearing an A's uniform and pitching with a chip on his shoulder.
The Breakdown of the August 12 Masterclass
If you saw the game, you've probably noticed how uncomfortable the Rays hitters looked. They weren't just missing; they were guessing. Lopez relied heavily on his four-seam fastball which, despite having average velocity (around 91 mph), generates an elite number of swings and misses because of the "rise" it appears to have from his specific release point.
- Innings 1-3: He retired the side with ease, using the slider to keep Brandon Lowe and the rest of the lefties off-balance.
- The Fourth Inning: This was the turning point. The Athletics put up three runs, and Lopez came back out and struck out the side. He didn't let the long rest on the bench cool him down.
- The Finale: By the seventh, he was at 96 pitches. Most managers would have pulled him. He stayed in and finished strong, leaving the Rays with just four hits and a lot of questions.
Why Jacob Lopez vs Rays Still Matters for 2026
We're sitting here in early 2026, and the fallout from that performance is still being felt in fantasy circles and scouting reports. Lopez finished his 2025 season with a 7-7 record and a 4.08 ERA. Those aren't "Cy Young" numbers, but they are "solid mid-rotation starter" numbers. The biggest hurdle for him right now is health.
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Shortly after that dominant start against Tampa, Lopez landed on the 15-day IL with a left elbow flexor strain. It was a huge bummer. He had been on a tear, including a 17-pitch battle with Nathaniel Lowe in a different game where he finally froze him for a strikeout. That’s the kind of "dog" he is on the mound. He doesn't give up.
Dealing with the Splits
One thing most people get wrong about Lopez is assuming he's just a lefty specialist. He's actually surprisingly effective against right-handed hitters because his sinker has about 18 inches of horizontal run. It’s gross. But there is a weird statistical anomaly: he’s way better at home.
- Home ERA (2025): 2.64
- Road ERA (2025): 5.40
If you're looking at Jacob Lopez vs Rays as a preview for his 2026 campaign, you have to wonder if he can find that same magic outside of his home ballpark. The stuff is clearly there. His slider sits in the 97th percentile of PLV (Pitch Level Value), meaning it’s objectively one of the hardest pitches in the league to track and hit.
What to Watch for Next
Jacob Lopez is currently recovering and "making good progress," according to team reports from late December. He's pre-arbitration eligible this year, which means the Athletics have every incentive to keep him in the rotation if his elbow holds up. He isn't the next Randy Johnson, but he might be the next Ryan Yarbrough—a crafty lefty who can give you 150 innings of high-level deception.
If he starts against the Rays again this season, keep an eye on his velocity. If he’s sitting at 91-92 mph, he’s dangerous. If it dips to 88, he becomes a lot more human. Either way, that shutout in August proved that the Rays might have let a good one get away.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
- Watch the Slider: Check the horizontal break in the first two innings. If it's sweeping wide, he’s going to have a long night of strikeouts.
- Monitor the Elbow: Since he ended 2025 on the IL, his first three starts in 2026 will be the "litmus test" for his season-long durability.
- Leverage the Splits: If you're a fantasy player, only start him when he's pitching at home until he proves he can handle the road.
- The Rays Factor: Tampa Bay's hitting coaches are some of the best at identifying "deception" pitchers. If they figure him out in the next matchup, it might be time to worry about his long-term viability against elite lineups.
Jacob Lopez has gone from a 26th-round afterthought to a legitimate MLB starter. Whether he can stay there depends on that left arm and whether he can keep hitters guessing with that "funky" delivery.