Football is weird. Seriously. You can have the best roster in the world, a Hall of Fame quarterback, and a legendary coach, but if you step into the wrong stadium on the wrong Sunday, everything falls apart. That is the essence of the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts rivalry. If you’ve followed the AFC South for more than five minutes, you know exactly what I’m talking about. There is a specific, inexplicable brand of chaos that happens when these two teams meet, especially when the Colts have to travel south.
Think about the 2025 season we just witnessed. The Jaguars basically owned the division, finishing 13-4 and clinching their third AFC South title in nine years. But look at how they did it. They didn't just stumble into it; they had to break the Colts' spirit twice in the final month of the year. On a cold, rainy December afternoon at EverBank Stadium—where the Colts haven't won since 2014, by the way—the Jaguars absolutely dismantled them 36-19. Trevor Lawrence looked every bit the $275 million man, throwing two touchdowns and even scrambling for more, while the Jags' defense turned Jonathan Taylor into a non-factor.
The Curse of EverBank and the Luck of the Jags
Let’s talk about that home-field advantage because it’s honestly one of the most bizarre stats in professional sports. The Indianapolis Colts have a massive lead in the all-time series—28-22 at the end of 2025—but they cannot win in Jacksonville. It’s been over a decade. Since 2014, every time the Colts fly into Duval County, things go sideways.
Remember Week 14 this past December? The Colts came in at 8-5, still very much in the hunt for the division. They left with their third straight loss and a season that was rapidly spiraling. It wasn't just the score; it was the way it happened. Daniel Jones, who had been serviceable for Indy after Anthony Richardson's struggles and various QB carousels, went down with an Achilles injury in the first half. Suddenly, rookie Riley Leonard is thrust into the fire. The Jags’ defense, ranked number one against the run at the time, held the NFL's leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, to just 74 yards.
✨ Don't miss: When Was the MLS Founded? The Chaotic Truth About American Soccer's Rebirth
When you look at the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts history, these are the moments that define it. It’s not always about who has the better record. It’s about who can survive the weirdness of the AFC South.
The Trevor Lawrence Leap
For years, people questioned if Trevor Lawrence was actually "The Generational Prospect" he was hyped up to be. In 2025, he shut everyone up. He finished the regular season with over 3,600 yards and 20 passing touchdowns, but more importantly, he became a winner in the "tricky, difficult stuff" as Head Coach Liam Coen calls it.
In Week 17, the Jags went to Lucas Oil Stadium. Now, usually, that’s where the Colts get their revenge. For a while, it looked like they would. Indy jumped out to a 10-0 lead. The stadium was rocking. But Lawrence didn't blink. He ran for two touchdowns himself, clawing the Jags back into a game they had no business winning. They were sick, too—half the roster was dealing with a bug that week. They scraped out a 23-17 win because Cam Little, their young kicker, nailed a 53-yarder with 18 seconds left. That’s the kind of grit that was missing in Jacksonville for a long time.
🔗 Read more: Navy Notre Dame Football: Why This Rivalry Still Hits Different
Why the Rivalry is Changing in 2026
We are entering a new era. The Peyton Manning days where the Colts just rolled over everyone are long gone. Even the Andrew Luck era feels like a lifetime ago. Right now, the AFC South is arguably the most competitive it’s been since the mid-2000s. You have C.J. Stroud in Houston, who is a legit superstar, and you have the Jags who just finished an eight-game win streak to end the 2025 regular season.
Where does that leave the Colts? Honestly, in a tough spot. They finished 8-9 last year, missing the playoffs while the Jags and Texans both looked like Super Bowl contenders. The Colts have pieces. Michael Pittman Jr. is a stud. Josh Downs is an underrated weapon. But the quarterback situation has been a revolving door. Whether it's the injury to Daniel Jones or the development of Riley Leonard, they need stability if they want to stop being the Jaguars' stepping stone.
Key Factors for Future Matchups
- The Rushing Battle: When the Jags stop Jonathan Taylor, they win. Period. In that 36-19 blowout, the Jags’ front seven, led by Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, lived in the backfield.
- Cam Little’s Leg: Don't sleep on the kicker. In close divisional games, Little has been the difference-maker. His 53-yarder in Indy effectively ended the Colts' season.
- The Coaching Edge: Liam Coen has brought a level of offensive creativity to Jacksonville that Doug Pederson started but couldn't quite sustain toward the end of his tenure. Coen’s ability to use Travis Etienne in the passing game has made this offense multi-dimensional.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
Most national media outlets treat Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts like a secondary game. They focus on the Cowboys or the Chiefs. But if you want to see pure, unadulterated "clutch" football, this is where it is. People think the Colts are still the "big brother" in this relationship because of the Manning years. They aren't. Since 2023, the Jags have won four of the last five meetings.
💡 You might also like: LeBron James Without Beard: Why the King Rarely Goes Clean Shaven Anymore
The power dynamic has shifted.
Jacksonville is no longer the "expansion team" that gets bullied. They are the bullies now. They hit hard, they play fast, and they have a quarterback who finally looks like he owns the division. The Colts are the ones trying to find an identity. They’re trying to figure out if they’re a power-running team or a vertical passing team, and while they figure that out, the Jags are busy hanging division banners.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you're betting on or analyzing the next Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts game, look at three things:
- Location: If it's in Jacksonville, take the Jags. The "Curse of Duval" is a real psychological hurdle for Indy. They haven't won there since the Obama administration.
- Third Down Efficiency: In the 2025 Week 14 game, Brian Thomas Jr. made a one-handed 39-yard catch on 3rd-and-5 that completely broke the Colts' momentum. The Jags’ ability to convert in high-pressure moments is currently superior.
- Turnover Margin: The Jaguars forced 3 turnovers in their big December win. The Colts' defense, while aggressive (shoutout to Zaire Franklin and Kenny Moore II), hasn't been as consistent at creating the short fields that their offense desperately needs.
The 2026 season is going to be a bloodbath in the AFC South. The Jaguars are the hunted now, and the Colts are desperate to prove they aren't irrelevant. Keep an eye on the injury reports for the secondary, especially with guys like Sauce Gardner (who had a brief stint/rumor mill connection) or Greg Newsome II making plays. The air attack in this rivalry is only getting more explosive.
Watch the line of scrimmage. That's where these games are decided. The Jaguars' defensive line has found a way to neutralize the Colts' expensive offensive line, and until Shane Steichen finds a counter-move, the results are likely to stay the same.