When you think of a football rivalry between Italy and Portugal, your mind probably jumps straight to the men’s side. You think of World Cup qualifiers, tactical chess matches, and maybe a bit of heartbreak. But honestly? The real drama lately has been shifted over to the women’s game. If you missed the clash at the UEFA Women's Euro 2025, you missed one of the most chaotic, tactically weird, and emotionally draining 90 minutes of the tournament.
People keep underestimating Portugal. They see Italy's historical dominance—the Azzurre have won 10 of the 13 all-time meetings—and assume it's a foregone conclusion. It isn't. Not anymore. The gap is closing, and it’s closing fast.
The Night in Geneva That Changed the Narrative
Let’s talk about July 7, 2025. This wasn't just another group stage match; it was a survival test at the Stade de Genève. Italy went into that game looking like the superior side on paper. They had the pedigree, the higher FIFA ranking (13th vs 22nd), and a squad that felt more cohesive under Andrea Soncin.
For 70 minutes, it was a stalemate. A lot of possession for Portugal (around 57%), but they couldn't do anything with it. Italy was happy to sit back and wait. Then, Cristiana Girelli did what Girelli does. She caught a ball about 20 meters out and sent a curling strike into the net that was, frankly, world-class. It felt like the game was over. Italy was heading to the quarterfinals.
But Portugal has this weird, stubborn refusal to go away.
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They had a goal ruled out for offside in the 80th minute after a grueling two-minute VAR review. Most teams would fold after that. Instead, Portugal kept pushing. In the 89th minute, a header from Carole Costa rattled the crossbar, the ball stayed live, and Diana Gomes managed to scramble it home.
1-1.
The stadium erupted. Italy was stunned. It was a result that kept Portugal’s tournament hopes alive by the thinnest of margins and proved that the "Italy vs Portugal women" matchup is no longer a guaranteed three points for the Italians.
Why Italy’s Dominance is Under Threat
Historically, Italy has been the "Big Sister" in this relationship. They’ve been to more World Cups and have a more established professional league structure in Serie A Femminile. However, Portugal’s investment through the FPF (Portuguese Football Federation) has started to pay off in a way that’s actually quite scary for the rest of Europe.
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The Tactical Shift
Under Francisco Neto, Portugal has moved away from just "surviving" against big teams. They play a high-risk 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 that prioritizes keeping the ball. In that Euro 2025 match, Italy only had 43% possession. That’s unheard of for an Italian side against a supposedly "lower" tier opponent.
The Kika Nazareth Factor
If you aren't watching Francisca "Kika" Nazareth, you’re doing it wrong. Now playing her club football at Barcelona, she represents the new era of Portuguese talent. She’s technical, arrogant in the best way possible, and moves the ball with a fluidity that Italy’s aging midfield sometimes struggles to track.
Italy’s Transition Phase
Italy is in a bit of a weird spot. They have legends like Girelli and Barbara Bonansea who can still produce magic, but there’s a massive weight on the shoulders of younger players like Giada Greggi and Manuela Giugliano to provide the engine room. When the veterans tire, the gaps appear.
Head-to-Head: By the Numbers
Looking at the raw data is the only way to see how much this matchup has leveled out. While Italy holds the historic edge, the recent "Expected Goals" (xG) and shot metrics tell a more balanced story.
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- Total Meetings: 14 (as of late 2025).
- Italy Wins: 10.
- Draws: 2.
- Portugal Wins: 2.
- Most Recent Result: 1-1 Draw (July 2025).
In the last game, Italy actually had more shots on target (6 to Portugal's 1), despite having less of the ball. This is the classic Italian style—Catenaccio-lite. They don't need the ball to hurt you. But Portugal's 57% possession indicates they are no longer scared to dictate the tempo.
What to Watch for in the Next Meeting
Whenever these two meet next, likely in the Nations League or World Cup qualifiers, the dynamic will be different. Portugal will be missing Ana Borges for at least a game due to that red card she picked up in the dying seconds of the Euro clash. She’s a veteran, and her absence hurts their leadership on the pitch.
For Italy, the focus has to be on the defense. Elena Linari and Martina Lenzini are solid, but they looked exhausted by the 85th minute in Geneva. If Italy can't find a way to rotate their backline without losing quality, Portugal’s high-energy wing-backs will eventually find a way through.
Actionable Takeaways for Fans and Analysts
If you're betting on or analyzing the next Italy vs Portugal women fixture, keep these nuances in mind:
- Watch the Wing Play: Portugal relies heavily on the width provided by Lucia Alves and Joana Marchão. If Italy’s full-backs (like Lisa Boattin) are pinned back, Italy loses their counter-attacking outlet.
- The 70-Minute Mark: Italy tends to score in the middle of the second half, but Portugal has developed a reputation for "injury time" heroics. Don't turn the game off early.
- League Impact: Keep an eye on the Portuguese players moving to the WSL or Liga F. The more they play outside of Portugal, the more they bring that elite intensity back to the national team.
- Midfield Control: Italy wins when Manuela Giugliano is allowed to spray passes. If Portugal puts a shadow on her, the Italian attack becomes incredibly stagnant.
This isn't just a lopsided history lesson anymore. It's a genuine tactical battle between two different philosophies of football. Italy wants to be clinical and efficient; Portugal wants to be expressive and dominant. The next time they step on the pitch together, expect fireworks, a lot of yellow cards, and probably another late, late goal.