When Giorgia Meloni took office in late 2022, the international headlines were, honestly, a bit panicked. You probably remember the vibe: "the most right-wing government since Mussolini" or "a threat to European stability." People expected a firebrand who would blow up the Eurozone and pick constant fights with Brussels.
But if you look at Rome today in early 2026, the reality is... surprisingly boring. And in politics, boring is often a sign of calculated success.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni hasn't governed like the revolutionary her critics feared or her most ardent fans hoped for. Instead, she’s become a master of the "double game." She uses fiery, identity-focused rhetoric to keep her base happy at home while acting like a perfectly disciplined, pro-EU technocrat in international meetings.
It’s a fascinating pivot. You’ve got a leader who grew up in the "social right" tradition but now gets rewarded by credit rating agencies like S&P and Fitch.
The Pragmatism That Stunned Brussels
The biggest misconception about Meloni is that she’s an anti-EU insurgent. In fact, she has spent much of the last year acting as a bridge between the "old guard" of Europe and the rising populist movements.
During the 2025 G7 presidency, which Italy hosted with a mix of Mediterranean flair and rigid security, she didn't try to tear down the system. She leaned into it. She’s become one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine, often sounding more hawkish than leaders in Berlin or Paris. It’s not just talk, either. Her government recently pushed through another extension for arms sales to Ukraine, despite some grumbling from her coalition partner Matteo Salvini of the Lega party.
She realized early on that Italy’s wallet is controlled by Brussels. With a public debt sitting at a staggering 137% of GDP, you can't really afford to be the "bad kid" in the class.
By playing nice, she secured the release of the eighth installment of the NextGenerationEU funds—roughly €12.8 billion. That brings the total haul to over €150 billion. If she had stayed the course of her 2022 campaign rhetoric, that money would likely be frozen, and the Italian economy would be in a tailspin.
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What’s Really Happening With the Mattei Plan?
You might have heard of the "Mattei Plan." It’s Meloni’s flagship foreign policy project, named after Enrico Mattei, the founder of the energy giant ENI. Basically, it’s her attempt to turn Italy into an energy hub for Europe while "helping" African nations develop so their citizens don't feel the need to migrate.
Critics call it "neocolonialism with a smile." Meloni calls it "pragmatic patriotism."
So far, it’s a bit of a mixed bag:
- The Lobito Corridor: A massive infrastructure project linking West and East Africa via Angola and Zambia.
- The AI Hub for Sustainable Development: A new center in Rome meant to help African startups.
- The Energy Link: Over €5.4 billion earmarked for energy infrastructure in the Sahel.
The goal is to move away from "charity" and toward "partnership." But let’s be real—it’s also about gas. Since Italy cut off Russian energy, it needs a new best friend. Algeria and Libya have stepped into that role. Meloni has spent more time in North Africa over the last two years than almost any other Western leader.
The 2026 Warning: "It's Going to Get Worse"
Meloni is nothing if not blunt. This past December, during a Christmas greeting to her staff at Palazzo Chigi, she gave a speech that went viral for all the wrong reasons. She told them that 2025 was tough, but 2026 would be "much worse."
Not exactly the "Merry Christmas" everyone was looking for.
Why the gloom? Because the "free money" from the pandemic recovery era is drying up. The EU's Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) has an expiration date of August 2026. After that, Italy has to stand on its own two feet.
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The economic indicators aren't great. GDP growth is crawling at around 0.7% or 0.8%. Industrial production has actually fallen by about 7% since she took office. While she’s kept the deficit in check—aiming for 2.8% this year—the average Italian isn't feeling a "Meloni Miracle." Real wages in Italy haven't really grown since the 90s.
She’s basically managed to keep the ship from sinking, but she hasn't found the motor to make it go faster.
The Migration Paradox
This is where Meloni’s supporters get the most confused. On one hand, she talks about "naval blockades" and "protecting borders." She even opened those controversial processing centers in Albania to handle migrants outside of EU soil.
On the other hand, her government has authorized over 500,000 work visas for non-EU nationals.
Why? Because Italy is shrinking. The birth rate is at an all-time low, and northern businesses are screaming for workers. She’s in a position where she has to look "tough" on illegal migration to keep her poll numbers at 30%, while quietly facilitating legal migration to keep the factories running. It’s a delicate tightrope walk that her opposition, led by Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party, hasn't quite figured out how to attack yet.
How She Controls the Room
Meloni’s real power doesn't come from her ideology; it comes from the fact that her rivals are in shambles.
- Matteo Salvini: Once the king of the Italian right, he’s now a junior partner trying to stay relevant by talking about a bridge to Sicily.
- The Left: They are deeply divided between the centrist liberals and the more radical Five Star Movement.
- Internal Discipline: Unlike past Italian PMs, Meloni has kept her party, Brothers of Italy (FdI), remarkably unified.
She’s also savvy about her public image. Whether she's posting "mom-life" content on Instagram or laughing with Elon Musk at a tech summit, she projects a sense of being "one of us" while being the most powerful woman in Europe.
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What Most People Get Wrong
People often think Meloni is an outlier. They think she's a temporary glitch in the system. But the "Meloni Method"—mixing hard-right social identity with ultra-cautious fiscal policy—is becoming the blueprint for the European right.
She isn't trying to leave the room; she’s trying to own the room.
She’s managed to get Italy’s "spread" (the difference between Italian and German bond yields) down to its lowest level since 2008. To the markets, she’s a safe bet. To her voters, she’s still the girl from the working-class Garbatella neighborhood who made it to the top.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you’re tracking Italian politics or the future of the EU, keep these three things on your radar for the rest of 2026:
- The August Deadline: Watch the NRRP funds. If Italy fails to spend the final billions effectively before August, the "pragmatic" image Meloni has built will crack.
- The Trump Factor: With the US shifting its own trade policies, Meloni’s "bridge" between the US and EU will be tested. Watch how she handles the 15% tariffs on EU exports; it could force her to choose sides between Washington and Brussels.
- Constitutional Reform: Meloni is pushing for the "Premiership" reform, which would allow for the direct election of the Prime Minister. If this passes, it would give her more power than any Italian leader in the Republican era.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has proved that you can keep the flame on your logo and still be invited to the best parties in Davos. Whether that balance can survive a year she herself described as "much worse" remains to be seen.
To stay ahead of the curve on Italian policy, focus on the "Implementation Status Reports" published by the Italian Parliament. These documents, though dry, show exactly where the Mattei Plan and NRRP money are actually going, beyond the photo ops and press conferences. Check the official Governo.it portal for the latest "Cabina di Regia" updates, which detail the specific energy and tech projects currently breaking ground in North Africa.