The air in Cincinnati gets a little different this time of year. You can feel it. It’s that twitchy, nervous energy that only comes when the calendar flips toward February and every single possession feels like a life-or-death situation for the Musketeers.
If you’re asking is Xavier in March Madness, the short answer is: nothing is set in stone yet. But man, it’s a roller coaster.
Right now, Sean Miller’s squad is essentially living on the edge of a knife. As of mid-January 2026, the Musketeers are sitting at an 11-7 overall record with a 3-4 mark in a Big East conference that is, frankly, a total meat grinder this year. They aren't "in" yet, but they sure as heck aren't "out."
The Resume: Why Xavier is Sweating the Bubble
To understand where Xavier stands, you’ve gotta look at the "Nitty Gritty." That’s the sheet the selection committee stares at while eating lukewarm pizza in a hotel conference room. Currently, Xavier is hovering around a NET ranking of 99.
📖 Related: Silly Golf Team Names That Actually Get a Laugh at the Clubhouse
Honestly? That’s not great. Usually, you want to be inside the top 50 to feel safe.
But rankings don't tell the whole story. Xavier has been scrappy. They’ve picked up some vital wins recently, like the 97-84 dismantling of Providence and an 89-75 victory over Butler. Those games at the Cintas Center are keeping the dream alive. When the Musketeers are hitting their shots—especially from deep where they’re shooting about 35.8%—they look like a tournament team.
The problem is the "Quad 1" column. In the world of college hoops, you are who you beat. Xavier is currently 0-3 in Quad 1 games. You can't get to the Big Dance without a few "giant-killing" moments. They’ve had chances—losses to UConn and Creighton hurt—but the opportunities aren't over.
Can Sean Miller Work the Magic?
People forget how hard it is to win in the Big East. You’ve got UConn acting like a buzzsaw at the top, and then a middle-class of teams that are all capable of beating each other on any given Tuesday.
Xavier’s schedule for the rest of January and February is basically a gauntlet.
- January 24: Home against St. John's.
- February 3: A terrifying road trip to Hartford to face UConn.
- February 17: Villanova comes to town.
If Xavier can steal two of those three, the conversation changes instantly. Suddenly, that NET ranking jumps, and the "bracketology" experts like Joe Lunardi start moving them from the "First Four Out" to the "Last Four In."
🔗 Read more: Giannis Antetokounmpo: Why the Milwaukee Bucks Greek Freak is Still the NBA’s Most Terrifying Problem
The Eye Test vs. The Analytics
If you watch this team, you see the potential. They play fast. They score about 77 points a game. But the defense... well, it’s a bit of a "cover your eyes" situation sometimes. Giving up 75.7 points per game makes every win a shootout.
Expert bracketologists currently have Xavier listed under "Under Consideration" or "Work to Do." They aren't in the projected field of 68 right this second. Most simulations give them about a 3% to 5% chance of an at-large bid if the season ended today.
But the season doesn't end today.
What Needs to Happen Next
If you’re a fan or just someone trying to win your office pool, here is the reality. Xavier basically needs to go 7-4 or better over their final 11 games to have a real conversation with the committee.
They need to protect home court. Period. The Cintas Center has to be a place where opponents' dreams go to die. Losses to teams like DePaul (even on the road) are resume killers that they simply cannot afford to repeat.
✨ Don't miss: Detroit Tigers Ticket Office: How to Actually Score Seats Without the Headache
So, is Xavier in March Madness? Not today. But if they can find some defensive identity and grab a signature win against a top-25 opponent in February, they'll be the team nobody wants to see in the first round come March 17th.
Actionable Insights for Following Xavier's Journey:
- Watch the NET Rankings: Check the NCAA's official NET rankings every Monday morning; if Xavier isn't moving toward the 60s, the bubble is shrinking.
- Root for the Big East: Xavier needs the teams they’ve already beaten to keep winning so their "strength of schedule" stays high.
- The Conference Tournament is Key: If they don't get an at-large bid, they'll have to win the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden to get the automatic entry. It's a long shot, but it’s happened before.
- Keep an eye on the Quad 1 record: Until that "0" in the win column changes, they are a long shot for an at-large bid.