Walk into any coffee shop in a swing state right now and you’ll hear the same debate. Is he actually pulling it off? Or is the floor falling out? If you’re asking "is Trump winning rn," the answer depends entirely on which scoreboard you’re looking at: the legislative slugfest in D.C. or the brutal reality of public opinion polls.
Honestly, it’s a weird time in American politics. We are officially one year into Donald Trump’s second term. As of January 2026, he is sitting in the Oval Office, but the "winning" part is a moving target.
The Polls: Is the Honeymoon Over?
Let's look at the cold, hard numbers because they aren't exactly pretty for the White House. Recent data from Gallup and the Associated Press (AP-NORC) show a presidency under significant pressure.
In late November 2025, Trump’s approval rating hit a second-term low of 36%. That’s a tough pill to swallow for any administration. Fast forward to this week—January 14, 2026—and there’s a slight "bounce." A fresh AP poll shows him tick back up to 40%.
Is a 40% approval rating "winning"?
In modern, hyper-polarized America, maybe. But for a guy who won the 2024 election with 312 electoral votes and a plurality of the popular vote, it represents a visible erosion. The "post-inauguration honeymoon" didn't just end; it basically evaporated under the heat of high grocery bills and controversial foreign policy moves.
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The demographics are telling. While 84% of Republicans are still firmly in his camp, his support among Independents has cratered to around 25%. If you want to know if Trump is winning the "hearts and minds" of the middle ground, the answer is a pretty clear no.
Winning the Policy War (The "Trifecta" Power)
If "winning" means getting your way, then yes, Trump is absolutely winning.
Because Republicans held onto a narrow majority in the House and took the Senate back in 2024, the President has a "trifecta." He isn't just suggesting things; he’s doing them.
- Executive Orders: He has been a whirlwind. By January 12, 2026, Trump signed 228 executive orders. That’s a staggering pace—the highest first-year total since FDR back in 1933.
- Immigration: This is where the administration is most "successful" in terms of fulfilling campaign promises. Under Secretary Kristi Noem, the Department of Homeland Security has ended Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for groups like Somali nationals, citing "America First" priorities.
- Foreign Policy: He’s been hacking away at international ties. Just last week, a new memorandum directed the withdrawal from several international treaties that the administration deems "contrary to U.S. interests."
From a pure "exercise of power" standpoint, he is dominating. He isn't waiting for permission. But this aggressive style is exactly what's fueling those 60% disapproval numbers. It's a trade-off.
The 2026 Midterm Shadow
We are officially in a midterm election year. Every single member of the House is looking at these approval ratings and sweating.
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History is a mean teacher here. Usually, the president’s party loses about 3.5 Senate seats in the midterms. With the GOP holding a 53-47 lead in the Senate, they can't afford to lose much.
Democrats are already smelling blood. They’ve seen recent wins in Virginia and New Jersey governorships (like Abigail Spanberger's victory) as a sign that the "MAGA" momentum is stalling out.
Is Trump winning rn in the eyes of his own party? Mostly, yes. But cracks are showing. Even high-profile allies like Marjorie Taylor Greene have occasionally broken ranks over specific issues like the release of the Epstein files or cost-of-living focus. When the base starts bickering, the "winning" narrative gets a lot harder to sell.
Why People Feel He’s Losing (and Why They’re Wrong)
If you spend all day on social media, you’d think the administration is collapsing. Critics point to the 30% approval rating on healthcare policy and the 31% on the federal budget as proof of a failed presidency.
But "winning" in politics isn't a popularity contest until the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
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Right now, he is winning the structural battle. He has appointed the judges. He has signed the orders. He has fundamentally reshaped the border. Whether people like it is almost secondary to the fact that it is happening.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you are tracking whether the Trump administration is gaining or losing momentum, stop looking at national approval ratings for a second. They’re too "noisy." Instead, keep an eye on these three specific indicators over the next few months:
- The "Affordability" Index: Trump’s approval on the economy sits at 36%. If gas or grocery prices don't drop by summer, the GOP could face a "Blue Wave" in the 2026 midterms that strips him of his legislative power.
- Special Elections: Watch the House special elections. They are the "canaries in the coal mine." If Democrats start over-performing by 5-10 points in red-leaning districts, the "Trump is winning" narrative is officially in trouble.
- The Senate Map: Look at races in North Carolina and Texas. These were decided by thin margins in 2020. If Republican incumbents there start distancing themselves from the White House, it’s a sign that the internal polling is grim.
The bottom line? Trump is winning the war of authority but losing the war of public sentiment. In a democracy, you can only do that for so long before the two realities collide at the ballot box.
Next Steps for You
- Track the 2026 Senate Map: Focus on the 20 seats Republicans are defending this year to see if the "Trump effect" is a help or a hindrance.
- Monitor Inflation Data: Since the "cost of living" remains the #1 issue for voters in the Reuters/Ipsos polls, any shift in CPI data will directly impact the President's "winning" status more than any speech or rally.