Walk into any grocery store today in early 2026 and you’ll see people doing the same thing: staring at the price of eggs and shaking their heads. It’s a weird time. Depending on who you ask, we are either on the verge of a "Golden Age" or sliding toward a cliff. The big question—is Trump ruining the economy?—isn't something with a simple yes or no.
Honestly, the data is a mess of contradictions.
On one hand, the stock market is screaming. The S&P 500 finished 2025 up about 18%, which is wild considering how many people predicted a crash. On the other hand, the average person feels broke. A recent AP-NORC poll shows about half of us think the country is worse off now than it was a year ago. It’s like we’re living in two different Americas. One is a spreadsheet where the numbers look great, and the other is a checkout line where your debit card feels a lot lighter.
The Tariff Gamble: Did it Actually Break Anything?
If you want to know if the current administration is messing things up, you have to look at the tariffs. This was the "big one." Critics said putting an 18% average tax on imports would send inflation back to the moon.
It didn't. At least, not yet.
Inflation sat at 2.7% in November 2025. That’s roughly where it was when Joe Biden left. Economists like Jeffrey Frankel from Harvard argue that we haven't felt the full punch yet because companies spent all of late 2024 stockpiling goods. They were basically hoarding toasters and car parts before the taxes hit. But that "inventory cushion" is running out.
📖 Related: Oil Market News Today: Why Prices Are Crashing Despite Middle East Chaos
What happens when it’s gone?
Many expect 2026 to be the year the bill actually comes due. We're already seeing it in specific spots. Utility bills have jumped 12% in the last year. The average household is paying $265 a month just to keep the lights on and the house warm. If the goal was to make life cheaper, paying an extra $116 a year for power suggests things aren't going exactly to plan.
The Jobs Paradox and "DOGE" Cuts
Then there's the labor market. This is where things get really confusing.
The unemployment rate hit 4.6% recently. That’s a four-year high. Trump usually points the finger at Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), saying the rise is just the result of cutting "bloat" in Washington. And sure, federal jobs are down. But that’s only a tiny slice of the pie.
The real story is the "hiring freeze."
👉 See also: Cuanto son 100 dolares en quetzales: Why the Bank Rate Isn't What You Actually Get
The rate at which people are actually getting hired has plummeted to levels we haven't seen since 2012 (outside of the pandemic). Businesses are nervous. Between the mass deportations reducing the labor pool and the uncertainty of trade wars, companies are sitting on their hands. They aren't firing everyone, but they aren't exactly rolling out the red carpet for new grads either.
Why some people say he's saving the economy
- Manufacturing Investment: The White House claims trillions are flowing back into the U.S. to build factories.
- Wage Gains: Blue-collar workers in mining and construction have seen their real weekly earnings jump by over $1,000 in a year.
- Gas Prices: Unlike electricity, gas at the pump is actually down about 6%. That’s a massive win for anyone with a commute.
Is Trump Ruining the Economy or Just Changing the Rules?
To understand if the economy is being "ruined," you have to decide what "good" looks like.
If you’re a billionaire or a manufacturing worker in a swing state, 2025 was probably a pretty decent year. If you’re a middle-class family trying to buy a house or pay for health insurance, it’s been brutal. Premiums are up. Mortgage rates are staying high because the Fed is scared to cut rates while the government is spending like crazy.
The deficit for fiscal year 2026 is already sitting at $601 billion as of December. We’re bringing in more money from tariffs (customs duties are up over 300%!), but we’re also spending way more on interest for our debt. It’s like getting a raise but watching your credit card interest eat the whole thing.
The Real Risks for 2026
We have to talk about the "Supply Shock" risk. If the mass deportations continue at the scale of 750,000 people a year, the labor supply shrinks. When labor shrinks, wages go up, which sounds great—until you realize that businesses pass those costs right back to you.
✨ Don't miss: Dealing With the IRS San Diego CA Office Without Losing Your Mind
Also, the "Reciprocal Tariff" game is just starting. Other countries aren't just taking the taxes; they're hitting back. If China or Mexico decides to stop buying American soybeans or tech, those booming stock numbers could flip overnight.
What You Should Actually Do Now
Look, nobody has a crystal ball. But the "wait and see" period of 2025 is over. 2026 is when the rubber hits the road. If you’re worried about whether the current path is sustainable, here are a few practical moves to protect your own "personal economy."
Lock in your energy costs where you can. With power prices surging, investing in home insulation or even small-scale solar might actually pay off faster than it used to. The federal credits for these things are being slashed, so if there’s a local or state program still running, grab it.
Watch the "Hires Rate," not just the unemployment rate. If you’re thinking about changing jobs, do it carefully. The low hiring rate means if you quit without a plan, you might be sitting on the sidelines longer than you expect.
Diversify away from "Trade-Heavy" stocks. If your portfolio is heavy on companies that rely on cheap Chinese imports, you might want to look at more domestic-service-based industries. The tariff-industrial complex is the new reality.
The economy isn't "ruined" in the sense of a total collapse, but it is being radically reshaped. It’s becoming more expensive, more volatile, and more tilted toward domestic production. Whether that’s a "ruin" or a "renovation" depends entirely on where you stand in the new hierarchy.