Politics moves fast. One minute you're looking at inauguration photos, and the next, everyone is obsessing over the midterms and 2028. If you’re trying to figure out is trump or kamala ahead right now, the answer depends entirely on which "ahead" you mean. Are we talking about job approval? Hypothetical 2028 matchups? Or just who has the most momentum heading into a high-stakes 2026?
Honestly, the numbers are a bit of a rollercoaster. President Trump is back in the Oval Office, but the "honeymoon phase" usually afforded to new presidents seems to have skipped town early. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris hasn't just faded into the background. She’s actively fundraising and keeping her foot in the door for the next cycle.
The Approval Gap: Trump’s Sliding Numbers
Let's look at the hard data. It’s January 2026, and the latest Gallup and Emerson polls paint a pretty stark picture. Trump’s approval rating has been on a steady slide since he took the oath again in 2025.
He entered office with about a 47% approval rating. By December 2025, that number hit 36%. To put that in perspective, that’s almost exactly where he sat a year into his first term. It’s not great. Only Richard Nixon had a lower approval rating at this specific point in a second term.
Why the drop?
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- The Economy: Despite promises of a "golden age," a lot of folks are still feeling the squeeze. Only 31% of voters approved of his handling of the economy in recent December polls.
- Independents: This is the group that really matters. Support among self-identified independents fell by a massive 21 percentage points over the last year.
- Young Voters: Gen Z is seemingly over it. Net approval among voters born between 1997 and 2012 has swung from a +10 in early 2025 to a whopping -32 now.
Trump, of course, isn't taking these numbers sitting down. He’s been posting on Truth Social calling the polls "rigged" and claiming his "real" approval is north of 60%. But if we’re following the data, the trend is downward.
Kamala’s Comeback or Just Keeping Pace?
So, if Trump is down, does that mean Kamala Harris is effectively "ahead"? Kinda. But it’s complicated.
Harris spent the first half of 2025 staying relatively quiet, which is standard for a defeated VP. But lately, she’s picked up the pace. She’s headlining DNC fundraisers and keeping her name at the top of the list for 2028. In a November 2025 national poll, when Democratic voters were asked who they’d want for the next nomination, Harris received 37% support.
That puts her ahead of other big names like Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg. However, by June 2025, some polls showed her losing that edge as the field grew more crowded.
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The "is trump or kamala ahead" question gets even weirder when you look at the 2026 midterms. Right now, Democrats have a four-point edge on the generic congressional ballot (44% to 40%). About 43% of voters say their vote in the midterms will be specifically to express opposition to Trump. That’s a huge motivator.
The 2028 Wildcard: It's Not Just a Two-Way Race
If we’re looking way down the road to 2028, the "ahead" metric changes again. While Harris is a frontrunner on the blue side, she’s got company.
- Gavin Newsom: Always in the conversation, usually hovering around 12-24% support depending on the poll.
- Pete Buttigieg: Currently pulling about 16% in some primary polls.
- The GOP Successor: Since Trump can’t run again (22nd Amendment and all), JD Vance is the clear frontrunner for the Republicans, sitting at roughly 54% support among GOP primary voters.
What People Get Wrong About the Current Polls
Most people think a low approval rating for Trump automatically means a win for the Democrats. It’s not that simple. The Democratic Party's own favorability is hovering around 35-37%, which is its lowest in years.
There’s a massive "meh" feeling across the electorate. People are unhappy with the incumbent, but they aren't necessarily sold on the alternative yet.
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Another nuance: the South Texas shift. Even as Trump's national numbers dip, local Republicans in places like the Rio Grande Valley are still seeing gains with Latino voters. This suggests that while the "Trump brand" might be taking a hit, the policy shifts he's implemented—specifically on the border—still have some staying power in specific regions.
The Bottom Line: Who is Actually "Ahead"?
If "ahead" means "who would win an election tomorrow," the data suggests a generic Democrat might have the upper hand due to Trump's high disapproval. But if "ahead" means "who has a firmer grip on their party," Trump (and his hand-picked successor JD Vance) still holds the cards.
The reality of is trump or kamala ahead is that we are in a period of extreme volatility. Trump is dealing with a "lame duck" narrative earlier than expected, and Harris is trying to prove she’s still the future of a party that is looking for "new moderate figures."
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
- Watch the generic ballot: Keep an eye on "Generic Congressional Ballot" polls throughout early 2026. This is the best indicator of whether the anti-Trump sentiment is actually translating into a "Blue Wave."
- Monitor Independent voters: If Trump's approval with Independents doesn't bounce back from that 21-point drop, the GOP will have a very hard time holding the House in November.
- Check the primary fields: Follow the fundraising numbers for Harris and Newsom. If Newsom starts out-raising Harris by a significant margin, her "frontrunner" status for 2028 is officially in jeopardy.
Stay skeptical of any poll that claims a "landslide" either way right now. We're in the messy middle of a second term, and the only thing that's certain is that 2026 is going to be a very long year.