Politics in America moves fast, but the start of 2026 feels like a total whirlwind. Honestly, if you’re asking is trump in the lead for president, you're asking a question that's a bit of a trick. Why? Because he’s already there. Since January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has been serving as the 47th President of the United States.
But in the world of constant campaigning, "the lead" usually refers to public favor, approval ratings, and how the 2026 midterms are shaping up. Right now, the vibe is complicated. He isn't exactly riding a wave of universal acclaim, but his base is as solid as a brick wall.
The Reality of the 2026 Approval Ratings
Let’s look at the hard numbers. If we’re talking about "leading" in terms of popularity, the latest data from January 2026 shows a president struggling to keep his head above water with the general public.
According to a recent AP-NORC poll, only about 4 in 10 Americans approve of the job he’s doing. That’s roughly 40%. It’s a number that has stayed weirdly consistent—basically a carbon copy of the numbers he saw during much of his first term.
The "Silver Bulletin" from polling expert Nate Silver puts his net approval at approximately -13. This means more people are unhappy than happy. Specifically:
- Economy: 37% approval (ouch).
- Inflation: 36% approval.
- Immigration: This is usually his strongest suit, but even here, it has dipped to around 42% or 43% in some surveys.
You’ve gotta wonder why the numbers are so sticky. Basically, people who love him, love him. People who don't, really don't. There’s very little middle ground left.
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Why the "Lead" is Slipping with Independents
The real story isn't about Republicans or Democrats. It’s about the people in the middle. In January 2025, Trump actually had a decent honeymoon phase with independents. He was roughly "even water."
Fast forward to today, and he’s nearly 40 points underwater with that same group. That’s a massive swing. When people ask is trump in the lead for president in the context of the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, this is the data point that makes Republican strategists lose sleep.
The Economic Disconnect
Here’s the thing: Trump keeps talking about a "Trump Economic Boom," but most folks aren't feeling it in their wallets. A Marist poll recently showed his economic approval at 37%, the lowest it’s been in either of his terms.
Tariffs are the big culprit here. While they were meant to "re-industrialize" the country, about 53% of Americans believe they’re just making prices higher. It’s hard to say you’re "in the lead" when 73% of the population thinks you aren't spending enough time trying to lower the cost of eggs and gas.
Foreign Policy: Venezuela and Greenland?
Trump’s second term has been anything but boring. The capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and the talk of "taking Greenland" (either by buying it or... other ways) has dominated the news cycle lately.
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Does this help him stay in the lead? Sorta.
Among Republicans, 71% think his aggressive foreign moves are "about right." They like the strength. But among the broader electorate, 56% think he’s "gone too far" with military interventions.
It's a classic Trump trade-off: firing up the base while potentially alienating the suburban voters he needs to keep Congress in 2026.
Looking Toward the 2026 Midterms
Technically, Trump isn't running for anything right now—he’s already in the Oval Office. But the 2026 midterms are a massive referendum on his leadership.
Currently, Democrats hold a 5.3% lead in the "generic ballot." That’s the poll where they ask, "Would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress?"
If those numbers hold, the GOP could lose the House. Trump is clearly worried about this; he’s been posting on Truth Social that the polls are "rigged" and that his "real" approval is 64%. He’s also pushing for big changes in how elections are run, which has sparked a lot of legal battles.
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Actionable Insights for Following the Polls
If you're trying to track whether the President is gaining or losing ground, don't just look at the "Top Line" number. Do these three things:
- Watch the "Strongly Disapprove" Number: If this climbs above 50%, it becomes almost impossible for a president to win back the narrative.
- Focus on Hispanic and Young Voters: These groups moved toward Trump in 2024. If they move back to the Democrats in 2026, the GOP's "working-class coalition" might be a one-hit wonder.
- Monitor the "Right Direction/Wrong Track" Stat: Currently, about 53% of people think the country is getting worse. Until that flips, the incumbent will always be "behind," regardless of who it is.
The situation is fluid. A sudden drop in inflation or a major foreign policy "win" that feels stable could easily put Trump back in a dominant position. But for now, being "in the lead" is a matter of perspective—he has the power, but he's losing the popularity contest.
To stay truly informed, look for polls from AP-NORC, Quinnipiac, and Marist. These organizations have shown the most consistent data regarding the second Trump term so far.
Next Steps for Staying Informed
- Check the RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight averages once a week rather than reacting to single, outlier polls.
- Follow the specific "Generic Congressional Ballot" polls to see if the 2026 Midterms are leaning toward a "Blue Wave" or a "Red Wall."
- Keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases; in 2026, the "lead" for any president is almost entirely tied to the price of a gallon of milk.