Honestly, the question of whether the U.S. is about to walk out on its oldest allies has become the political equivalent of a "will they, won't they" TV drama. But it's not fiction. It's 2026, and we are sitting in a reality where the President of the United States just released a National Security Strategy (NSS) that basically treats European capitals like deadbeat roommates rather than vital partners.
If you’ve been following the headlines, you’ve probably seen the chaos surrounding the "Greenland situation." It sounds like a bad Tom Clancy novel. Trump is back in the White House, and his focus has shifted so hard toward the Western Hemisphere that Brussels feels like it’s on another planet. People are asking: is Trump going to leave NATO, or is he just trying to scare the living daylights out of Europe to get a better deal?
The Greenland Crisis and the "Trump Corollary"
The tension reached a fever pitch recently when Trump reaffirmed his claim on Greenland. He didn't just ask to buy it this time. He told reporters on a Sunday that "one way or the other, we're going to have Greenland."
That sent shockwaves through the alliance.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was blunt. She warned that if the U.S. actually tries to occupy or annex part of a NATO ally’s territory, the alliance is effectively dead. You can't really have a "mutual defense" treaty if the biggest guy in the room is the one you need to be defended from. This is what diplomats are calling the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine. The State Department even posted on X (formerly Twitter) that "This is OUR hemisphere," which is a pretty clear signal that the U.S. is prioritizing regional dominance over global leadership.
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Can He Actually Leave? The Legal Barricade
Here is the thing most people miss: leaving NATO isn't as easy as sending a "u up?" text to the Kremlin.
Congress actually saw this coming.
In the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), specifically Section 1250A, lawmakers put a massive padlock on the exit door. The law explicitly prohibits any President from "suspending, terminating, denouncing, or withdrawing" from the North Atlantic Treaty without:
- Two-thirds approval from the Senate.
- Or a specific Act of Congress.
They even went a step further in the FY2026 NDAA. They blocked the use of any federal funds to support a withdrawal. So, even if Trump wants out, he’s facing a legal wall. Of course, the White House has already challenged this, claiming it infringes on the President's authority as Commander-in-Chief. It's a constitutional showdown waiting to happen.
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The 5% GDP Milestone: A Win or a Threat?
Wait, didn't NATO just agree to spend more? Yes. Last summer at the Hague Summit, allies made a historic commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
Trump called it a "big win for Western civilization."
He sounded relaxed. He praised the "passion" of European leaders. But—and this is a big "but"—he still refused to give a straight answer on Article 5. When asked if the U.S. would definitely defend an ally under attack, he just said, "There's numerous definitions of Article 5, you know that, right?"
That ambiguity is the real "soft" withdrawal. You don't have to leave the building to make the security guarantee feel worthless. If a landlord says they might or might not fix a gas leak depending on how much rent you paid this month, do you really feel safe?
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What Happens Next?
The reality is that "leaving NATO" might not be a single event. It might be a slow fade.
The administration has reportedly told European leaders they need to take control of NATO’s defense planning by 2027. We are seeing a "Coalition of the Willing" form under European leadership to handle Ukraine and Baltic security.
What you should do to stay ahead of this:
- Watch the Arctic: The Greenland dispute isn't just about land; it's about the "Arctic Sentry" operations. If the U.S. starts pulling out of joint Arctic exercises, that’s your signal that the alliance is fracturing.
- Track the 3.5% Military Core: While the 5% goal includes things like "cybersecurity," look at who is hitting the 3.5% core military spending. Germany has already committed to hitting this by 2029. Nations that lag behind will be the first ones Trump targets with trade sanctions.
- Monitor the Courts: The first time Trump tries to move troops out of Europe against the NDAA's restrictions, it will go to the Supreme Court. That ruling will decide the fate of the alliance more than any summit.
The U.S. hasn't left NATO yet. But the "blank check" era is officially over, and the map of global security is being redrawn in real-time.