Look at the calendar. It’s mid-January. If you live in Florida, you’re probably more worried about whether your hibiscus will survive the frost tonight than you are about a Category 4 storm. But here we are. People are already asking: is there another hurricane coming to Florida?
Right now, the National Hurricane Center is basically quiet. Their official Tropical Weather Outlook is on hiatus because, well, the Atlantic is asleep. It’s the off-season.
But honestly, in Florida, hurricane season never really feels like it's "over." It just goes dormant. While the 2025 season is in the rearview mirror, the early whispers about 2026 are starting to circulate among meteorologists and risk managers. If you’ve been scrolling through social media and saw some panicked headline about a "winter hurricane," take a breath. It’s almost certainly clickbait.
The truth is much more nuanced. We are currently watching a weird transition in the Pacific—shifting from a weak La Niña to what they call "ENSO-neutral." This matters because what happens in the Pacific eventually dictates how many storms we get in the Atlantic.
Is There Another Hurricane Coming to Florida Anytime Soon?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: It’s incredibly rare for anything to spin up in January. The water is too cold. The wind shear is too high. Think of the Atlantic right now like a car with no battery. You can turn the key all you want, but the engine isn't catching.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) won't even start issuing regular daily updates again until May 15, 2026. That’s because the atmosphere isn't set up for tropical development. Instead of watching for tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, we’re watching for Arctic blasts. In fact, right now, Florida is bracing for a massive cold front. Highs in Tallahassee might barely hit the 50s, and Orlando could see the 30s.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking ahead.
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What the 2026 Forecasts Are Already Saying
You might think it’s too early for a forecast. It's not. Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), one of the big names in long-range predictions, dropped their first outlook for the 2026 season back in December. They are currently projecting a "near-normal" season.
What does "normal" look like in 2026?
- 14 named storms
- 7 hurricanes
- 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
These are just numbers on a page right now. They can, and will, change. Last year, the forecasts hopped around like a caffeinated frog. They started high, went low, then went high again. By the time we hit August 2025, the experts were constantly tweaking the dials because the ocean temperatures were doing things we'd never seen before.
The big variable for 2026 is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. We’ve been stuck in a weak La Niña pattern. Usually, La Niña is bad news for Florida because it reduces wind shear, making it easier for storms to grow. If we transition into a "warm-neutral" phase by the time summer 2026 rolls around, it could go either way.
Why 2026 Could Be a Different Beast
We can't talk about hurricanes without talking about the "Main Development Region" or the MDR. This is the stretch of ocean between the Caribbean and Africa.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are still running warmer than the historical average. Even though it's winter, the "thermal memory" of the ocean is a real thing. If the Atlantic stays warm through the spring, it acts like fuel waiting for a spark.
There's also the question of "ACE." That stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It’s a way for scientists to measure not just how many storms we have, but how strong and long-lasting they are. TSR is predicting an ACE index of around 125 for 2026. For context, a really hyperactive year can see that number soar past 200. 125 is... manageable. But manageable only matters if the storm stays out at sea.
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If one "average" storm hits your zip code, it's a 100% active season for you.
The Quiet Threats: Heat and Humidity
While everyone is asking is there another hurricane coming to Florida, researchers at the University of Florida are actually more worried about something else. Heat.
Dr. David Keellings and his team recently published a study in Science of the Total Environment. They found that humidity is actually making Florida's "off-season" and "pre-season" more dangerous than the storms themselves. They’ve developed something called the Heat Severity and Coverage Index (HSCI).
Basically, they’re finding that the gap between "dangerous" weather events is shrinking. We used to have a clear hurricane season and a clear "nice" season. Now, the humidity is lingering longer, and the ocean is staying warmer. This feeds the storms later into the year and starts them earlier in the spring.
The Names for 2026
If you’re curious about what we’ll be calling these potential storms, the 2026 list is actually a recycle of the 2020 list. You might remember 2020—it was the year we ran out of names and had to use the Greek alphabet.
The first few names on the 2026 docket are:
- Arthur
- Bertha
- Cristobal
- Dolly
- Edouard
One name you won't see is "Laura." That was retired after the 2020 season due to the devastation it caused. It has been replaced by "Leah." Let's hope we don't have to meet Leah.
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Practical Steps for the Off-Season
Since there isn't a storm on the horizon today, this is actually the best time to be productive. Everyone waits until there’s a cone of uncertainty over their house to buy plywood and batteries. Don't be that person.
First, check your insurance. This is a nightmare in Florida right now. Carriers are dropping people, raising rates, and changing terms. Do an "audit" of your policy while the weather is calm. Make sure you actually have flood insurance, because your standard homeowners policy almost certainly doesn't cover it.
Second, look at your trees. Winter is a great time to trim back overhanging branches. If a tree looks sick or leaning now, it’s going to be a projectile in August.
Third, take inventory. We’ve all got a box of "hurricane supplies" that is actually just 3-year-old granola bars and flashlights with leaked batteries. Clean it out. Replace the batteries. Buy one extra case of water every time you go to Publix over the next three months.
Basically, the 2026 hurricane season is a "near-normal" prospect for now. We have months of cold fronts and "Florida winters" to get through before the first tropical wave even thinks about forming. Stay informed, but don't let the early forecasts ruin your January.
The most effective thing you can do right now is check your window seals and roof flashing. Small leaks during a winter rainstorm are giant problems during a tropical storm. If you find a soft spot on your ceiling now, you can get a roofer out in a week. If you find it in September, you'll be waiting three months for a call back. Focus on the maintenance you can control while the Atlantic remains quiet.