It is January 18, 2026. For most of us in the Northern Hemisphere, hurricanes are the last thing on our minds as we scrape frost off windshields. But the ocean doesn't really care about our calendars. If you are asking is there a hurricane forming right now, the answer depends entirely on which part of the world you're looking at.
Right now, the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are quiet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) isn't tracking anything in those basins, which is normal. We are deep in the "off-season." However, across the international date line, things are different.
The Current State of the Tropics
In the Western Pacific, we are currently watching Tropical Storm Nokaen.
It’s the first named storm of the 2026 Pacific typhoon season. It actually bubbled up around January 13 as a depression before being upgraded. As of today, it’s sitting about 260 miles east of Manila in the Philippines. It isn't a "hurricane" in the technical sense—because it's in the Pacific, we call it a typhoon or tropical storm—but it's the exact same type of engine.
Nokaen has been a bit of a troublemaker. It dumped a massive amount of rain on parts of the Philippines, specifically in the Bicol Region and Caraga. Sadly, local reports have confirmed at least two deaths due to landslides in Sorsogon. Right now, it’s moving north-northeast with sustained winds around 35 to 45 mph. It’s expected to stay over open water and eventually fizzle out, but it's a stark reminder that the tropics never truly sleep.
Meanwhile, in the South Indian Ocean, there is another active system: Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.
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This one is a bit stronger, with winds hitting closer to 60-70 mph. It’s swirling well away from major landmasses, but it’s a significant system for the Southern Hemisphere's summer season.
Why the Atlantic is Dead Silent (For Now)
If you are looking at the Florida coast or the Gulf of Mexico, you can breathe easy. The NHC issued its final regular outlook for the previous season back in November. They won't start daily "official" monitoring again until May 15 for the Pacific and June 1 for the Atlantic.
That doesn't mean the water is "empty."
Actually, the NHC just issued a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico today. A cold front is pushing through, bringing rough seas and high winds. It’s not a tropical system—it’s just winter weather—but it can feel just as nasty if you’re out on a boat.
The main reason we don't see hurricanes in the Atlantic right now is the wind shear. During the winter, the jet stream dips low. These high-altitude winds basically act like a giant fan that blows the tops off any developing clouds. A hurricane needs a calm environment to stack up vertically. In January, the atmosphere is just too chaotic.
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Looking Ahead: The 2026 Hurricane Season Outlook
Meteorologists aren't just sitting around waiting for June. They are already obsessing over the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle.
- La Niña is fading: We’ve been in a La Niña pattern, which usually means a more active Atlantic season because it lowers wind shear.
- The El Niño Transition: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is currently giving a 75% chance that we transition to a "neutral" phase by late winter or early spring.
- The Big Question: Will El Niño develop by summer?
Early forecasts from groups like Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) are already trickling out. Their initial 2026 projection suggests a season that looks a lot like the 30-year average. We're talking maybe 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense (Category 3+) hurricanes.
But here’s the kicker. Sea surface temperatures in the "Main Development Region" of the Atlantic are still warmer than average. Warm water is hurricane fuel. If El Niño doesn't develop fast enough to provide that protective wind shear, those warm waters could lead to a much busier season than people are expecting.
Common Misconceptions About Winter Storms
People often see a big swirl on a satellite map in January and freak out. Usually, these are extra-tropical cyclones.
They look like hurricanes because they spin, but they are powered by temperature differences (cold air meeting warm air) rather than the warm-water-engine that drives a tropical hurricane. They have "fronts" attached to them. A real hurricane is "core-warm" and symmetrical. If you see a storm with a long "tail" of rain stretching for a thousand miles, it's probably just a winter low-pressure system.
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How to Stay Prepared During the Off-Season
While there isn't a hurricane hitting the U.S. today, the best time to prepare is when the sky is clear.
- Check your shutters: If you live in a coastal area, now is the time to see if your hurricane shutters actually work. Don't wait until a 5-day cone is pointing at your house and the hardware store is out of screws.
- Audit your "Go Bag": Check the expiration dates on your canned goods and the batteries in your flashlights.
- Review your insurance: Most flood insurance policies have a 30-day waiting period. If you wait until a storm is forming in August to buy it, you’re already too late.
The tropics are currently quiet in our backyard, but the activity in the Western Pacific with Nokaen shows that the right conditions can crop up any time of year if the water is warm enough.
Keep an eye on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) if you have interests in the Pacific, and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for updates on the Atlantic as we get closer to May.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Verify your zone on the local evacuation map, as these are often updated during the winter months.
- Replenish your emergency water supply while demand is low and prices are stable.
- Set a calendar reminder for April to check the first major updated seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University, which typically set the tone for the year.