The short answer? No. It isn't.
If you’ve been scrolling through social media or catching snippets of the evening news lately, you might notice the coverage has shifted. It’s quieter. The frantic, 24-hour live maps that dominated our screens in 2022 and 2023 have largely been replaced by domestic politics or other global crises. But for anyone living in Kharkiv, Dnipro, or the muddy trenches of the Donbas, the question is the war over in Ukraine feels almost absurd. The sirens still scream. People still die every single day.
Right now, we are in a brutal, grinding phase of attrition. It’s a slugfest. Think of it less like a movie with a clear climax and more like a long, painful marathon where the finish line keeps moving. The frontline hasn’t shifted hundreds of miles in months, but the intensity of the combat is actually higher in some sectors than it was during the initial invasion.
The current state of the frontlines
A lot of people think that because the "counteroffensive" talk died down, the fighting stopped. That’s a mistake. Honestly, the scale of the violence is still staggering. We are looking at a line of contact that stretches over 600 miles. To put that in perspective, that’s like a continuous battlefield running from New York City to South Carolina.
Russia has shifted its strategy. They aren't trying to blitzkrieg Kyiv anymore; they are trying to bleed Ukraine dry through sheer mass. They’re using "meat waves"—small groups of infantry sent forward to expose Ukrainian positions—combined with a massive advantage in artillery shells. In places like Avdiivka or the ruins of Bakhmut, the landscape looks more like a black-and-white photo from Passchendaele in 1917 than anything from the 21st century.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is playing a very different game. They have to. They don't have the infinite manpower that Moscow seems willing to throw into the furnace. So, they’ve turned to tech. FPV drones (First Person View) have basically changed the rules of engagement. A $500 drone with a plastic-strapped grenade can take out a multi-million dollar T-90 tank. It's wild. It’s changed how soldiers move, how they hide, and even how they eat. You can’t smoke a cigarette outside at night because the thermal camera on a drone will see the cherry of your smoke from half a mile up.
Why you keep hearing "Stalemate" (and why that's wrong)
General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, famously used the word "stalemate" in an interview with The Economist. That word stuck. It’s a sticky word. But experts like Michael Kofman from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argue that "stalemate" implies nothing is happening.
That’s wrong.
👉 See also: Ethics in the News: What Most People Get Wrong
A lot is happening. It’s just happening in the "deep rear." Ukraine has been incredibly successful at hitting the Russian Black Sea Fleet. They don’t even have a functional navy in the traditional sense, yet they’ve forced the Russian fleet to retreat from Sevastopol. They did it with sea drones—basically jet skis packed with explosives. This allowed Ukraine to keep shipping grain, which keeps their economy from totally collapsing.
On the flip side, Russia has turned its economy into a war machine. About 40% of their national budget is now dedicated to defense and security. They are outproducing the West in basic artillery shells. If you’re wondering is the war over in Ukraine, just look at the factory floors in Chelyabinsk or the Ural mountains. They aren't stopping. They’re digging in for a multi-year conflict.
The Missile War Above the Clouds
While the trenches are stagnant, the sky is a mess. Russia launched some of the largest drone and missile strikes of the entire war throughout late 2024 and into 2025. They’re targeting the energy grid. They want to make Ukraine unlivable.
Ukraine’s air defense, bolstered by Patriot systems and IRIS-T, is good. It’s really good. But it’s a math problem. If Russia fires 100 cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones, and Ukraine has to use $2 million missiles to shoot them down, Russia eventually wins the math. This is why the political bickering in Washington and Brussels over aid packages isn't just "politics." It’s a direct lifeline. Without those interceptor missiles, cities like Kyiv become defenseless within weeks.
The "Fatigue" Factor
We need to talk about the mood. It's heavy.
In the beginning, there was this massive surge of adrenaline. Everyone was a volunteer. Grandma was making Molotov cocktails. Now? Everyone is tired. Not "I need a nap" tired, but "I’ve been at a funeral every week for two years" tired.
There’s a tension now between the civilians in the cities who are trying to live a "normal" life—drinking lattes, going to work—and the soldiers who haven't had a rotation off the front in eighteen months. You see it in the debates over mobilization. The Ukrainian government is struggling with how to draft more men without killing the economy or causing a social rift. It’s a delicate balance that every democracy in a total war has faced, from the UK in 1940 to the US during Vietnam.
✨ Don't miss: When is the Next Hurricane Coming 2024: What Most People Get Wrong
Russia has a "fatigue" problem too, though it’s harder to see through the propaganda. They’ve lost hundreds of thousands of men. But because the casualties mostly come from poor, remote regions or prisons, the elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg aren't feeling the sting yet. Putin is banking on the West getting bored before his own people get angry.
Is there a path to peace?
Everyone wants to know when the "negotiations" start.
Here is the problem: what is there to negotiate?
- Russia’s stance: They want Ukraine to demilitarize and give up the four regions they "annexed" (even though they don't fully control them). Basically, they want a surrender.
- Ukraine’s stance: They want every Russian soldier off their land, including Crimea. They want reparations and war crimes trials.
There isn't a middle ground there. You can't be "half-sovereign." If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ceases to exist as a state. If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. That’s the core reality that gets lost in the "is the war over" chatter.
Misconceptions that drive experts crazy
I talked to some folks who track this stuff daily, and there are a few myths that just won't die.
- "The sanctions failed." Not exactly. Sanctions didn't stop the war, but they made it much harder for Russia to build high-tech weapons. They’re stripping microchips out of dishwashers to put them in missiles. It’s a slow burn, not a sudden crash.
- "Ukraine is just a puppet of NATO." Tell that to the guys in the mud. Ukraine is fighting for its own survival. NATO provides the tools, but the blood is entirely Ukrainian.
- "It's a frozen conflict." A frozen conflict is North and South Korea—no one is shooting. In Ukraine, hundreds of people are being killed or wounded every single day. It’s a "high-intensity war of position."
What happens next?
The year 2026 is shaping up to be the most decisive yet, and not necessarily because of a big battle. It’s because of the industrial capacity.
The US and Europe are finally ramping up shell production. If the West can provide enough "stuff" to keep Ukraine’s lines stable, the cost for Russia might eventually become too high. But if the aid dries up, Ukraine will be forced to trade land for time, retreating slowly while inflicting as much damage as possible.
🔗 Read more: What Really Happened With Trump Revoking Mayorkas Secret Service Protection
The biggest wildcard? Internal Russian stability. We saw the Wagner mutiny with Prigozhin—things can get weird very fast in an autocracy under pressure. But you can't build a military strategy on the hope of a "Black Swan" event.
Practical ways to stay informed (and help)
If you're looking for the truth beyond the 30-second news clips, you have to look at the data.
1. Follow the right sources Stop relying on TikTok "experts." Look at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They release daily maps that are incredibly detailed. For the human side, read The Kyiv Independent. They are on the ground and their reporting is world-class.
2. Watch the "Grain Corridor" If you want to know how the war is going, don't just look at the Donbas. Look at how many ships are leaving Odesa. If Ukraine can keep its exports moving, it can fund its own defense. If Russia closes that door, Ukraine is in deep trouble.
3. Understand the "Long Game" Prepare for the fact that we might be asking is the war over in Ukraine for several more years. This is a generational shift in European security.
4. Support specific needs If you feel the urge to help, skip the big generic charities. Look for groups providing night vision, medical kits (IFAKs), or demining equipment. Organizations like United24 or Come Back Alive are vetted and get equipment directly to the people who need it.
The war isn't over. It has just become a part of the global background noise for many, which is exactly what the Kremlin wants. The most important thing anyone can do is keep paying attention. Complexity is hard, and long wars are boring to the outside observer, but the outcome of this "stalemate" will define the next fifty years of history.
Take a look at the maps today. Compare them to six months ago. The changes are small, but the cost of every inch is immense. We aren't in the "endgame" yet; we are in the middle of a very long, very dark tunnel.