The Guadalupe River is beautiful, but it's also temperamental. One minute you're floating down the Comal breakout near New Braunfels with a cold drink, and the next, a wall of water is roaring down from the Hill Country. So, is the Guadalupe River flooding right now? That depends entirely on which stretch of the river you’re standing near and how much rain just fell in the Edwards Plateau.
It happens fast.
Flash flooding is the literal hallmark of the Texas Hill Country. Because of the thin soil and steep limestone terrain, rain doesn't soak in; it slides. It's like pouring a bucket of water onto a slanted concrete driveway. Everything funnels into the riverbeds. If you are checking the status of the river because you have a trip planned or you live on the banks, you need to look at the "flow rate" rather than just the depth.
Understanding the Current State of the Guadalupe River
When people ask about is the Guadalupe River flooding, they’re usually looking for a "yes" or "no" answer. It’s never that simple. The river is over 230 miles long. It might be bone-dry and rocky in Kerrville while simultaneously sweeping cars off the road in Wimberley or downstream near Victoria.
Right now, the most critical data comes from the USGS (United States Geological Survey) gauges. These are the gold standard. They measure discharge in cubic feet per second, or cfs. For context, a nice, lazy tubing flow is usually between 100 and 300 cfs. Once you start hitting 1,000 cfs, the rental outfits start hovering near their "no-tuber" flags. If it hits 5,000 cfs? That’s not a river anymore; it’s a debris-filled engine of destruction.
You've got to check the specific gauge for your area. The Canyon Lake dam release is a huge factor here. The Army Corps of Engineers controls how much water leaves the lake. If the lake is full, they have to let water out to protect the dam, which can cause "man-made" flooding downstream even if it hasn't rained in New Braunfels for a week.
👉 See also: Why the Recent Snowfall Western New York State Emergency Was Different
Why the Guadalupe is Different From Other Rivers
Most rivers give you a warning. They rise slowly over days. The Guadalupe is a "flashy" river. In 1998 and again in 2002, the river saw catastrophic rises that caught people completely off guard. We’re talking about 30-foot walls of water.
The geography is the culprit. The "Balcones Escarpment" acts as a ramp for moisture coming off the Gulf of Mexico. When that warm air hits the hills, it dumps. Hard. If you’re at a low-water crossing and the sky looks dark upstream, you leave. You don't "wait and see." Honestly, waiting is how people end up on their roofs.
How to Read the Flood Gauges Like a Local
Don't just look at the news. The news is often behind the curve or focusing on one specific bridge. Go to the source. The West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) provides a color-coded map.
- Green: You’re good. Normal flows.
- Yellow: Action stage. The river is bank-full.
- Orange: Minor flooding. Low-water crossings are underwater.
- Red: Moderate to major flooding. Structures are at risk.
If you see the gauge at Sattler or Gruene spiking in a vertical line on the graph, that’s a flash flood pulse. It’s a literal wave moving down the river. If you’re downstream in Seguin, you might have six hours before that peak hits you. If you’re in New Braunfels, you might have thirty minutes.
It's also worth noting the "Turn Around, Don't Drown" rule isn't just a catchy slogan for the National Weather Service. Most deaths in Guadalupe River flooding events happen in vehicles. It only takes 12 inches of rushing water to carry off a small car. Two feet will take an SUV. The road underneath the water might not even be there anymore—the river often washes away the asphalt and the dirt beneath it.
✨ Don't miss: Nate Silver Trump Approval Rating: Why the 2026 Numbers Look So Different
The Canyon Lake Factor
Canyon Lake is the "faucet" for the lower Guadalupe. When the lake level exceeds 909 feet mean sea level (msl), the water starts going over the emergency spillway. This is rare, but when it happens, the river below the dam becomes unrecognizable.
During the 2002 flood, the spillway flow was so intense it carved out the "Canyon Lake Gorge" in just three days. It moved boulders the size of houses. If the lake is high, the river is dangerous. Period. You can check the current lake levels at the Canyon Lake Texas Real-Time Data portal managed by the USGS.
Real-World Impacts: What Happens When it Floods?
Property owners along River Road in New Braunfels know the drill. They move their picnic tables, they chain down their docks, and they move their RVs to higher ground. But for visitors, the danger is less obvious.
Basically, the water turns chocolate brown. It’s full of "strainers"—downed trees and branches that can trap a person or a kayak underneath the water. Even if the water doesn't look "that deep," the force of 2,000 cfs is enough to pin you against a bridge piling with thousands of pounds of pressure. You aren't swimming out of that.
The economic impact is also massive. When the river is flooding, the "Tube Chute" closes. The outfitters lose thousands of dollars a day. But they do it because the liability of a "flood-stage" river is too high. If the local authorities have called a river closure, stay out. It’s a Class C misdemeanor in many spots, but more importantly, it’s a death wish.
🔗 Read more: Weather Forecast Lockport NY: Why Today’s Snow Isn’t Just Hype
Historic Floods to Remember
We can't talk about is the Guadalupe River flooding without mentioning 1998. It remains the benchmark. Over 30 inches of rain fell in some spots within 24 hours. The river at New Braunfels peaked at a staggering 113,000 cfs. For comparison, the average flow is around 250 cfs.
That event changed how Texas looks at floodplain management. It’s why so many of the parks along the river have "Warning: Flash Flood Area" signs. They aren't there for decoration.
Actionable Steps to Stay Safe Right Now
If you're worried about current conditions, follow this specific checklist. Don't rely on a weather app that just shows a "rain cloud" icon.
- Check the USGS Gauge: Look for the gauge nearest to your specific location (e.g., Hunt, Comfort, Spring Branch, New Braunfels, or Victoria).
- Monitor the Trend: Is the flow rate (cfs) going up, down, or holding steady? A rising trend during a rainstorm is an immediate red flag.
- Check the GBRA Website: The Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority manages the dams and hydroelectric lakes (like Lake Dunlap and Lake McQueeney). They post alerts about gate openings.
- Local Social Media: Follow the New Braunfels Police Department or the Comal County Sheriff's Office. They are the first to announce road closures and "High Water" alerts.
- Look Upstream: If it's sunny where you are but pouring rain in Kerrville or Fredericksburg, the river will rise at your location eventually. The water has to go somewhere.
Planning Your Trip Around the Weather
If you have a vacation rental booked, call the owner. They usually have a "river-eye" view and can tell you if the dock is underwater. Honestly, most locals are happy to share info because they don't want to have to call Search and Rescue for a tourist who didn't respect the current.
If the river is too high for tubing or paddling, check out the local springs. Often, the Comal River (which is fed by springs) stays clearer and calmer even when the Guadalupe is a muddy mess, though even the Comal will flood if the rain is heavy enough in the immediate Landa Park area.
The Guadalupe River is a force of nature. It's the lifeblood of Central Texas, but it demands respect. Keep your eyes on the gauges, stay off the low-water crossings during storms, and always have a "Plan B" for your weekend.
Immediate Next Steps for Safety and Information:
- Visit the USGS WaterWatch map and zoom in on the Texas Hill Country to see real-time flow icons.
- Bookmark the GBRA River and Reservoir Data page to see exactly how many gates are open at each dam.
- Download a "Radar" app that allows you to see the "Precipitation Accumulation" over the last 24 hours in the Upper Guadalupe Basin.
- Program local emergency radio stations into your phone if you are camping in a "dead zone" for cell service along River Road.