Look, if you’re asking "is Ted Cruz winning," you’re likely trying to figure out if the Texas political landscape has finally shifted or if it’s more of the same. The short answer? He already won.
In the 2024 general election, Ted Cruz secured his third term in the U.S. Senate, defeating Democratic challenger Colin Allred. While the media often paints Texas as a "shifting" or "purple" state, the actual data tells a story of a Republican incumbent who didn't just win—he widened the gap compared to his previous outing.
People forget how close things got in 2018. Back then, Beto O’Rourke almost pulled off the impossible, coming within 2.6 percentage points of unseating Cruz. It was a political earthquake. But if you fast-forward to the 2024 results, Cruz beat Allred by roughly 8.5 percentage points. That’s a significant cushion. We are talking about 5.9 million votes for Cruz versus about 5 million for Allred.
Is Ted Cruz Winning the Long Game in Texas?
To understand if Cruz is "winning" in the broader sense of political longevity, you have to look at the demographics of who actually showed up at the polls. One of the most surprising takeaways from the recent cycle was Cruz’s performance with Hispanic and Latino voters.
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For years, the Democratic strategy in Texas relied on the idea that a growing Hispanic population would naturally flip the state blue. That didn't happen here. In fact, Cruz won a slight majority of Hispanic and Latino voters in 2024. That is a massive shift. It suggests that the "winning" formula for Texas Republicans has moved beyond just the rural strongholds; they are now competing—and winning—in regions like the Rio Grande Valley that used to be deep blue.
Money was another factor. This wasn't some low-budget affair. It was the most expensive congressional race in the country. Cruz raised over $86 million. Allred raised about $80 million. When two candidates dump a combined $166 million into a single state race, you expect a photo finish. Instead, Cruz outperformed the polls, which had consistently put him up by only 3 or 4 points in the final weeks.
Why the "Blue Texas" Narrative Keeps Stalling
Every few years, we hear that Texas is "in play." Honestly, the numbers just don't back it up yet. Republicans have won every statewide election in Texas since 1994. That is a 30-year winning streak.
Cruz’s victory in 2024 was built on a very specific "Keep Texas, Texas" message. He focused heavily on:
- Border security: Using "concrete and steel" rhetoric that resonates with the base.
- Cultural issues: Specifically leaning into anti-abortion stances and debates over transgender rights in sports.
- Energy and Economy: Keeping the focus on Texas as an oil and gas powerhouse.
Allred tried to pivot the conversation toward reproductive rights and "mainstream" leadership, but in a high-turnout presidential year, the Republican floor in Texas remained too high to crack.
The 2026 Landscape and Beyond
So, where does that leave us now? Since Cruz just started a six-year term, he isn't up for re-election until 2030. His seat is safe for the foreseeable future. However, the question of whether his brand of politics is winning is currently being tested by the internal drama of the Texas GOP.
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Right now, as we head into the 2026 midterms, the focus in Texas has shifted to the other Senate seat held by John Cornyn. There is a massive internal fight brewing. Cornyn is facing pressure from more "hardline" elements of the party, including potential primary challenges from figures like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Cruz has been interesting to watch here. He hasn't officially picked a side in the Cornyn-Paxton-Hunt rivalry yet. He's playing it cool. Some see this as Cruz maintaining his own "winning" coalition without alienating either the establishment or the MAGA wing of the party.
Real-Time Approval and Sentiment
According to University of Texas/Texas Politics Project data from mid-2025, Cruz’s approval rating remains a mirror of the state’s partisan divide. He holds roughly an 87% approval rating among "Strong Republicans," while remaining deeply unpopular with Democrats.
But "winning" in politics isn't about being liked by everyone; it's about being liked by the people who vote for you. In that regard, Cruz is comfortably in the driver's seat. He has successfully navigated the transition from being a Tea Party insurgent to a senior member of the Senate GOP leadership.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for You
If you are tracking Texas politics or trying to understand the "is Ted Cruz winning" phenomenon, keep these points in mind:
- Ignore the "Swing State" Hype: Until a Democrat wins a statewide office (Governor, AG, or Senate), Texas remains a solid red state. The "margin" might shrink or grow, but the "win" remains Republican.
- Watch the Rio Grande Valley: This is the new frontline. If Republicans continue to win 50% or more of the Hispanic vote in these regions, the path for a Democratic victory in Texas becomes almost non-existent.
- The Fundraising Gap is Real: As of early 2026, Texas Republicans hold a massive cash advantage over Democrats. Money buys the airwaves, and in a state as big as Texas, you can't win without it.
- Term Tracking: Mark your calendars for November 5, 2030. That is the next time Ted Cruz will actually be on a ballot for his Senate seat. Everything else you hear until then is just posturing.
The reality is that Ted Cruz isn't just winning his elections; he is fundamentally reshaping what it means to be a Republican in a state that is undergoing massive demographic shifts. He’s proven that "demographics are destiny" is a flawed theory if you can successfully change your messaging to meet new voters where they are.