You’ve probably seen the headlines or the frantic social media posts. Every six years, like clockwork, the same question bubbles up: is Ted Cruz losing his grip on Texas? It's the ultimate political cliffhanger for people who don't live in the Lone Star State and a point of pride or frustration for those who do.
The short answer? No. He just won again.
On November 5, 2024, Ted Cruz secured a third term in the U.S. Senate by defeating Democratic challenger Colin Allred. If you were looking for a dramatic upset, the final numbers were actually kind of a letdown for the "blue Texas" crowd. Cruz didn't just win; he outperformed his 2018 nail-biter against Beto O’Rourke by a significant margin.
The Numbers That Ended the "Is Ted Cruz Losing" Debate
Let’s look at the cold, hard math from the 2024 general election. Cruz pulled in 5,990,741 votes, which translates to about 53.1% of the total. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and U.S. Representative, managed 5,031,249 votes, or roughly 44.6%.
That’s an 8.5-point gap.
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Compare that to 2018. Back then, Cruz barely escaped with a 2.6-point victory. People thought that was the beginning of the end for him. But in 2024, he actually flipped thirteen counties that had previously gone elsewhere. He even won a slight majority of the Hispanic and Latino vote, according to exit polls. That’s a massive shift in a state where demographics were supposed to be his undoing.
Why the Polling Got It Sorta Wrong
For months, the media was buzzing with polls showing a "dead heat." In September 2024, one poll actually had Allred up by a single point. Internal Democratic memos were leaking left and right, suggesting that the "is Ted Cruz losing" narrative was finally becoming reality.
But there’s a big difference between a poll and a ballot box.
Cruz basically tied Allred to the national Democratic platform, specifically focusing on the border and transgender issues. He ran on a slogan of "Keep Texas, Texas." It worked. While Allred raised over $80 million—even out-earning Cruz in several quarters—the money didn't translate into enough votes in the rural and suburban pockets that still lean heavily Republican.
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The Cancun Factor and Other Vulnerabilities
We have to be honest: Cruz isn't exactly the most beloved figure, even among some Republicans. People still bring up the 2021 Cancun trip during the devastating winter power grid failure. Allred used that in almost every TV ad. The narrative was simple: when things got tough, Cruz went to the beach.
It's a powerful image. But in Texas politics, policy and "tribal" loyalty usually beat out personal optics.
- Border Security: This was Cruz's strongest card. He hammered Allred for opposing certain border wall funding.
- The Economy: In a high-inflation environment, Cruz’s "unleash American energy" rhetoric resonated with voters worried about gas prices and grocery bills.
- The Trump Effect: Despite their legendary friction in 2016, Cruz has become one of Donald Trump’s most reliable allies in the Senate. In a state that Trump won by double digits in 2024, that alliance was a safety net.
What Happens Next for Ted Cruz?
Now that he’s been sworn into the 119th Congress, his term runs all the way until January 3, 2031. That means we won't be asking "is Ted Cruz losing" in an election context for a long time.
He’s currently focused on his committee assignments, including the Judiciary and Commerce committees. With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate as of early 2025, Cruz has more legislative juice than he’s had in years. He’s pushing for federal judicial appointments and strict border legislation that he couldn't get through when Democrats held the gavel.
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Why the Narrative Persists
If he keeps winning, why does the "losing" narrative never die? Because Texas is changing.
Cities like Austin, Dallas, and Houston are deep blue. The suburbs are becoming "purple." Every election cycle, Democrats see a path to victory, spend $100 million, and come closer than they did in the 90s. But "closer" is still a loss.
If you're tracking his political health, don't look at the national headlines. Look at the Texas Secretary of State's certification numbers. They show a candidate who knows exactly how to mobilize his base when the pressure is highest.
Actionable Insights for Following Texas Politics
To get a real sense of where the state is heading—and if Cruz will ever actually be in danger—keep an eye on these specific metrics over the next few years:
- Voter Registration Shifts: Watch the growth in suburban counties like Tarrant (Fort Worth) and Denton. If these flip blue and stay blue, Cruz’s 2030 path becomes much harder.
- Hispanic Voting Trends: If the 2024 trend of Hispanic voters moving toward the GOP continues, the "demographics are destiny" argument for Democrats is basically dead.
- Special Elections: Watch the 2026 race for John Cornyn’s seat. It will serve as a mid-term temperature check for how Texans feel about the current Republican direction.
- Legislative Wins: Check if Cruz actually delivers on "securing the border" or if it remains a campaign talking point. His base will hold him to those promises.
The talk about Cruz's political demise is, for now, nothing more than talk. He’s settled into his Washington office for another six years, and the 2024 results suggest he’s actually getting stronger, not weaker, in the eyes of the Texas electorate.