Honestly, if you’d told someone three years ago that silver would be pushing $90 an ounce in 2026, they’d have laughed you out of the room. Yet, here we are. The "poor man’s gold" isn’t looking so poor lately. In fact, it's looking downright scarce.
So, is silver still considered threatened? Basically, yes—but not in the "extinction" sense. It's threatened by a massive, multi-year math problem. We are currently staring down our sixth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit. That’s fancy talk for saying we’re using way more silver than we’re digging up.
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The $90 Reality Check
As of mid-January 2026, silver has been on a tear, recently hitting all-time highs above $93 before settling around the $90 mark. This isn't just some speculative "meme stock" frenzy like we saw a few years back. This is a structural squeeze.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) actually made a massive move in late 2025 by officially adding silver to its List of Critical Minerals. That’s a huge deal. It’s no longer just a shiny thing for your grandmother’s spoons or a hedge against a bad economy; it's now officially a matter of national security.
Why the Supply Can't Just "Turn On"
You’ve probably wondered: if silver is so expensive, why don’t miners just dig up more?
It's kinda complicated. About 70% to 75% of the world's silver isn't even mined on purpose. It’s a byproduct. Most silver comes out of the ground because someone was actually looking for copper, lead, or zinc.
If a mining company is pulling up copper and they happen to find some silver, they aren't going to double their entire multi-billion dollar operation just because the silver price jumped. They care about the copper. Because of this, the supply is what experts call "inelastic." It doesn't move just because the price does.
The 10-Year Lag
Even for "primary" silver mines (the rare ones that actually hunt for silver), you can't just flip a switch. It takes roughly 10 to 15 years to go from discovering a silver deposit to actually getting a permit and building a mine. We are currently feeling the "threat" of a decade of under-investment.
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The Green Energy Hunger
The real reason silver is "threatened" is because the world’s climate goals are basically built on its back.
- Solar Panels: This is the big one. Silver is the most electrically conductive metal on the periodic table. In the first half of 2025 alone, the world installed enough solar panels to use up roughly 448 million ounces of silver.
- Electric Vehicles (EVs): Your average internal combustion car uses a bit of silver. An EV? It uses double or triple that—somewhere between 25 and 50 grams per car. With Gartner predicting 116 million EVs on the road by the end of this year, the math starts to look scary.
- AI and 5G: Data centers and 5G towers are packed with silver-coated processors and connectors.
The Geopolitical Chessboard
The "threat" to silver supply isn't just about how much is in the dirt; it's about who owns the dirt. Mexico, China, and Peru dominate the mining scene. In early 2026, we’ve seen increased export restrictions and "mineral nationalism."
Governments are starting to treat silver like oil. If you don't have it, your tech industry stops. In January 2026, President Trump even issued proclamations regarding "processed critical minerals" to address supply chain vulnerabilities. When the White House starts talking about metal supply chains, you know the situation is tight.
What Most People Get Wrong
A common myth is that we’re going to "run out" of silver. We won't. The Earth has plenty.
The real "threat" is to available inventory. The Silver Institute and groups like Metals Focus have been watching the vaults in London and New York bleed out for years. We’ve been living off "above-ground stocks"—basically the leftovers from previous decades.
In 2025, the deficit was around 95 million ounces. That sounds smaller than the 200-million-ounce gap we saw in 2023, but don’t let that fool you. The cumulative deficit since 2021 is approaching 820 million ounces. We are running through our "savings account" of silver, and eventually, the bill comes due.
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Actionable Insights for 2026
If you’re looking at silver right now, here’s how the landscape actually looks:
1. Watch the Industrial "Thrifting"
Engineers are desperately trying to use less silver in solar panels (a process called thrifting) or swap it for copper. So far, copper isn't cutting it because it corrodes too easily. Keep an eye on TOPCon solar technology; it actually uses more silver than older designs.
2. The Scrap Factor
With prices near $90, expect a massive wave of recycling. People are going to start melting down old jewelry and silverware again. This "secondary supply" is the only thing that might prevent a total vertical price spike.
3. Portfolio Re-allocation
According to recent data from Vanda Research, retail investors aren't just "trading" silver anymore; they’re treating it as a core macro asset. If you're holding silver, you're no longer in a niche club of "silver bugs." You're in a crowded room with institutional hedge funds.
4. Mining Stocks vs. Physical
Be careful with the miners. Even with high silver prices, their costs for diesel, labor, and electricity have soared. Plus, many are still dealing with "lower-grade" ore. Owning the metal is a supply-demand play; owning the miner is a business management play.
The "threatened" status of silver is really a story of a world that wants to go high-tech and green but forgot it needs the raw materials to do it. We’ve spent years ignoring the "boring" stuff like mining, and now the market is forcing us to pay attention.
To stay ahead, keep a close watch on the Silver Institute’s interim reports and any updates to the USGS Critical Minerals list. The gap between what we need and what we have isn't closing anytime soon.