Honestly, if you ask three different generals if Russia is winning the war, you’ll probably get four different answers. It’s messy. As of early 2026, the map of Ukraine looks like a jagged scar across Europe, and the definition of "winning" has shifted so many times it's hard to keep track.
Basically, the war has entered a grueling phase where "victory" is measured in meters and attrition rates rather than grand, sweeping captures of major cities. If you look at the raw territory, Russia holds about 20% of Ukraine. But that number doesn't tell the whole story. Not even close.
The Gritty Reality of the Front Line
Right now, the fighting is concentrated in the east and south, specifically around places like Pokrovsk and the heights near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have been inching forward, but the cost is staggering. We’re talking about "meat-grinder" tactics where hundreds of troops are lost for a single treeline.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian General Staff spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovii pointed out that Russian leadership is likely inflating their gains to keep the Kremlin happy. According to him, the Russian Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, cited territory capture figures that were basically double the actual reality on the ground. It’s a game of smoke and mirrors.
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- The "Fortress Belt": Ukraine has spent the last year building a massive fortification system. It’s deep—sometimes up to 200 meters—and packed with anti-tank ditches and razor wire.
- Drone Dominance: In sectors like Pokrovsk, ground robotic systems are now doing the heavy lifting, delivering supplies so human soldiers don't have to risk the "FPV drone alleys."
- The Attrition Math: Russia is losing tanks faster than it can build them. Satellite imagery shows their old Soviet-era storage yards are looking pretty empty.
Is Russia Winning the Economic Battle?
This is where things get kinda weird. On paper, Russia’s economy hasn't collapsed like the West predicted back in 2022. But the "war-driven boom" is finally starting to fizzle out.
The Kremlin is spending over 13 trillion rubles on defense this year. That’s a lot of zeros. To keep the lights on, they’ve had to hike taxes on regular people and businesses. Inflation in places like occupied Crimea is reportedly hitting 100%, which is just wild.
While the Russian public stays relatively quiet—polls from the Levada Center still show around 70% approval—there’s a massive shift underneath. People want peace. Roughly 66% of Russians now say they’d support peace talks, though they still want to keep the land they’ve taken. It’s a "yes, but" situation that makes negotiations almost impossible.
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The Western Factor: Aid and the Trump Effect
You can't talk about whether Russia is winning without looking at Washington and Brussels. The vibes have changed. With the Trump administration back in the White House, there’s a much louder push for a "twenty-point" peace deal.
Europe is getting nervous. They’ve just proposed a €90 billion loan package for 2026 and 2027, but with a catch: Ukraine has to "buy European." It’s a move toward strategic independence because they aren't sure if the U.S. faucet will stay open forever.
France and the UK are even talking about sending "post-truce" troops to monitor a ceasefire. That’s a huge escalation in commitment that nobody would have bet on two years ago.
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The Technical Stalemate
So, is Russia winning the war? If "winning" means achieving their original goal of taking Kyiv and installing a puppet government, then no. They failed.
If "winning" means holding onto what they have and outlasting Western patience, they are still in the game. But they are running out of the old Soviet "legacy" equipment that allowed them to fight this way for so long.
Experts like Ruth Deyermond from King’s College London argue that neither side is actually in a position to win a "conclusive" victory right now. We are looking at an active stalemate.
Actionable Insights for Following the Conflict
If you’re trying to cut through the propaganda and figure out what’s actually happening, here’s how to look at the news for the rest of 2026:
- Watch the Depletion Rates: Don't just look at who took a village. Look at the loss of armored vehicles. If Russia stops using tanks and starts using more golf carts and motorcycles for assaults, it means their industrial output is failing to meet the demand of the front.
- Monitor the "Coalition of the Willing": Keep an eye on the group of European nations meeting in Paris. Their willingness to provide security guarantees without the U.S. will determine if Ukraine can survive a potential freeze in American aid.
- Check the Energy Revenue: Russia’s ability to fight depends on oil prices. If the G7 successfully tightens the price cap or if global demand drops, the Kremlin’s war chest will start to look very thin by the end of the year.
- Follow Local Inflation: Watch the price of basic goods in Russian cities. Economic "stagnation" is often the precursor to social unrest, even in a tightly controlled state.
The reality is that 2026 won't likely be the year the war ends. It’s the year we find out who can handle the exhaustion better. Ukraine is betting on high-tech defenses and European manufacturing. Russia is betting on sheer numbers and a hope that the West gets bored. It’s a tragic, high-stakes waiting game.