You've probably seen the headlines flicker by and wondered if the news is just repeating itself. Honestly, it’s a valid question. With everything else happening in the world, the sheer longevity of this conflict feels surreal. But the short, grim answer is yes. Russia is still fighting in Ukraine, and as of January 2026, the violence has actually entered a much more volatile phase.
We aren't just looking at "more of the same."
This winter has been brutal. Temperatures in Kyiv and Kharkiv have plummeted far below freezing, and the Kremlin has leaned into a strategy that can only be described as "infrastructure attrition." Basically, they are trying to freeze the civilian population into submission. According to UN Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo, the start of 2026 brought no respite, only "renewed fighting and devastation."
The State of the Frontline in 2026
If you looked at a map today versus six months ago, you might think nothing has moved. You'd be wrong. While the lines don't shift by hundreds of miles like they did in the early days of 2022, the "slow grind" is incredibly active.
Right now, the heaviest fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region. Russian forces are desperately trying to seize the entire Donbas—a goal they've had since day one but still haven't fully achieved. In just the first week of January 2026, Russian troops captured several small settlements, including villages near Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.
It’s a war of meters, not miles.
Russian forces have also opened up new, smaller "distraction" fronts. Just this week, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Russian incursions in the Sumy region near the border. These aren't necessarily part of a massive new invasion of the north, but they force Ukraine to spread its defenses thin. It's a calculated move to keep the Ukrainian military from concentrating its strength in the south or the east.
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The Numbers That Tell the Story
To understand the scale, you have to look at the wreckage. Estimates from former CIA Director William Burns suggest Russian casualties have now crossed the staggering mark of 1.1 million killed or injured.
On the Ukrainian side, figures from late 2025 and early 2026 suggest around 400,000 casualties. Think about that. We are talking about nearly 1.5 million people removed from the workforce and their families. It’s a demographic catastrophe that will haunt both countries for a century.
Is Russia Still Fighting in Ukraine Because of Peace Talk Failures?
There's been a lot of chatter about peace deals lately. You might have heard about the "Paris Declaration" or the Trump administration's "28-point plan."
It sounds promising on paper. In reality? It’s a mess.
The biggest hurdle is that Vladimir Putin doesn't seem to want a ceasefire. Analysts like Gwendolyn Sasse from Carnegie Europe have pointed out that Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is still demanding territory that Russia doesn't even occupy yet—specifically all of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa.
- The Demands: Russia wants a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four "annexed" regions.
- The Reality: Ukraine still holds major parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
- The Sticking Point: Control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remains a massive "no-go" for both sides.
Basically, Russia is using negotiations as a stall tactic. They’re waiting to see if Western resolve cracks or if the "Coalition of the Willing"—a group of European nations including the UK and France—will actually put boots on the ground for "peacekeeping" after a hypothetical truce.
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The Shift to Hybrid and Energy Warfare
If you aren't on the front lines, the war finds you through the power grid. On January 13, 2026, Russia launched one of its largest strikes yet: nearly 300 drones and dozens of missiles.
They hit energy hubs in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa.
In Dnipropetrovsk alone, 800,000 people were left without power in the middle of a freeze. This isn't just about winning a battle; it's about making Ukraine unlivable.
There's also a "shadow war" happening. Russia has ramped up sabotage operations across Europe—a four-fold increase in 2025 compared to previous years. They’re trying to scare Ukraine’s neighbors into stopping their support. It's a high-stakes game of chicken where the "front line" is now a power substation in Lviv or an election office in Germany.
What Most People Get Wrong About 2026
A common misconception is that Russia is running out of money. You’ve heard about the sanctions, right? Well, the Russian economy has proven frustratingly resilient.
The ruble is actually trading near pre-war levels, and while they've burned through their best tanks, they’ve rewired their entire society for a "forever war." They are getting steady supplies of tech and parts from partners like North Korea and Iran.
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They aren't running out of steam. They're just changing how they fight.
What Happens Next?
The "spring offensive" of 2026 is the next big milestone. If Russia fails to make a breakthrough by May, some experts believe domestic pressure inside Russia might finally start to boil over. But for now, the machinery of war is humming at full volume.
Actionable Insights for Staying Informed
The situation changes hourly, and "doomscrolling" isn't helpful. If you want to actually understand where this is going, keep an eye on these specific indicators:
- Energy Resilience: Watch if Ukraine can repair its grid faster than Russia can break it. This determines if the civilian population stays put or if we see another massive wave of refugees into Europe.
- The "Coalition of the Willing": Monitor if France and the UK actually move forward with plans to station troops in Ukraine for "post-war security." This is a huge red line for the Kremlin.
- Ammunition Ratios: The war is currently decided by who has more shells. If the EU's €90 billion support package for 2026-2027 translates into actual deliveries of 155mm rounds, Ukraine can hold the line.
The war is far from over. It has morphed into a test of who can endure the most pain for the longest time. Russia is still fighting in Ukraine because, for the Kremlin, the cost of stopping is currently viewed as higher than the cost of continuing.
Verify news through the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) or ACLED for real-time data on territorial changes. These sources filter out the propaganda from both sides and give you the raw geography of the conflict. Stay skeptical of "imminent peace" headlines unless you see both sides agree on the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant—that is the ultimate litmus test for a real ceasefire.