Walk into any bar in Kyiv or a coffee shop in Warsaw right now, and you'll hear the same debate. Is Russia actually losing this thing, or are they just playing a really long, really bloody game? We’re entering early 2026, and the map of Ukraine looks like a jagged scar. Honestly, the answer depends entirely on how you define "losing." If you're looking for a 1945-style surrender where someone signs a paper on a battleship, you’re not going to find it here. Not yet.
But if you look at the raw math? The numbers are genuinely staggering. Former CIA Director William Burns recently noted in an interview that Russian casualties have likely crossed the 1.1 million mark. Think about that for a second. That is more than the population of many European cities, all gone in under four years.
The Grind: Why "Winning" Territory Feels Like Losing
Russia currently occupies about 19.26% of Ukraine. That sounds like a win until you look at the pace. Throughout 2025, the Russian military was gaining territory at a rate that can only be described as glacial. We’re talking about an average of 171 square miles a month. In the last few weeks of 2025 and heading into January 2026, that slowed even further to just 79 square miles.
Basically, Putin is trading thousands of lives for the equivalent of a few cow pastures and some ruined villages. It's what military historians call a Pyrrhic victory. You "win" the land, but you destroy your army to get it.
Ukraine has spent the last year digging in. Their defensive lines are now a nightmare of layered fortifications and "drone kill zones." If you’re a Russian soldier trying to cross an open field in the Pokrovsk sector, you aren't just fighting men; you're fighting an invisible ceiling of FPV drones. The Atlantic Council recently highlighted how these drones have prevented localized Russian advances from ever turning into real breakthroughs.
🔗 Read more: When is the Next Hurricane Coming 2024: What Most People Get Wrong
The Winter of Thermal Terror
It’s cold. Really cold. We’ve seen temperatures hit $-20°C$ ($-4°F$) this month. Russia has pivoted its strategy because, frankly, they can't break the trench lines. They’ve started what some experts are calling "thermal terror."
Instead of trying to knock out the whole national power grid—which Ukraine has become surprisingly good at fixing—the Kremlin is targeting district heating plants in cities like Kharkiv and Odesa.
- The Logic: You can reroute electricity. You can't reroute steam and hot water through frozen pipes.
- The Goal: Force a mass humanitarian exodus. If people can't stay warm, they have to leave.
- The Result: As of January 2026, Ukraine’s energy generation is sitting at about 14 GW, down from over 33 GW before the invasion.
Is the Russian Economy Finally Breaking?
You've probably heard that the Russian economy is "resilient." People love to point at the ruble, which strengthened to about 78 per dollar recently. But don't let that fool you. The Kremlin has basically turned Russia into a giant gas station that only services a tank factory.
They are spending roughly 9% of their GDP on this war. For context, the Soviet Union was spending about 2-3% on Afghanistan when that conflict started to collapse the USSR. They’ve burnt through half of their liquid sovereign wealth fund. Interest rates are hovering over 16%.
💡 You might also like: What Really Happened With Trump Revoking Mayorkas Secret Service Protection
Russia is "winning" the production race in the short term by cannibalizing its future. They are pulling 1960s-era tanks out of deep storage because they can’t build new ones fast enough to replace the 11,500+ they’ve lost. RUSI (the Royal United Services Institute) estimates that at current attrition rates, Russia will exhaust its recoverable equipment reserves by late 2026 or early 2027.
The Casualty Gap
Let’s talk about the human cost. It’s the hardest part to track, but the estimates from January 2026 are sobering.
- Russia: Roughly 1.22 million total combat losses (killed and wounded) according to Ukrainian General Staff reports, with Western intelligence leaning toward the 1.1 million mark.
- Ukraine: Estimates vary wildly, but some Western sources put the figure around 400,000 killed or injured.
It’s a lopsided ratio, sure. But Ukraine has a much smaller population. They are facing a mobilization crisis of their own. President Zelenskyy is juggling the need for more boots on the ground with a public that is exhausted.
The Putin Endgame: A Frozen Victory?
Putin is betting on "time." He’s convinced the West will get bored or broke before he does. And he might be right about the boredom. European funding has stepped up to fill the gap left by fluctuating U.S. support, but it’s a heavy lift.
📖 Related: Franklin D Roosevelt Civil Rights Record: Why It Is Way More Complicated Than You Think
Is Russia losing?
Tactically, they are failing to achieve any of their 2022 goals. Kyiv is free. The government hasn't collapsed. The Black Sea Fleet has been essentially chased out of Crimea by a country without a real navy.
Strategically, however, Russia still holds the initiative in the Donbas. They are willing to bleed more than anyone else. That’s their only real "superpower" left.
What to Watch for in 2026
- The 2027 Crunch: Keep an eye on those equipment reserves. If Russia runs out of old T-62s to refurbish, their ability to launch even "slow" offensives disappears.
- The Energy Front: If Ukraine can survive this winter without a total urban collapse, Russia loses its biggest non-military lever.
- Hybrid Escalation: Expect more "weird" stuff—GPS jamming in the Baltic, fiber-optic cables being cut in the Atlantic, and cyberattacks. Russia is increasingly using these because they’re cheaper than losing another 1,000 men in a day.
Actionable Next Steps
If you're trying to stay informed without getting lost in the propaganda, focus on attrition metrics rather than territorial maps. A gain of five miles in the Donbas matters much less than the loss of 500 tanks in the same period. Follow the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for daily frontline updates and DeepState for detailed mapping.
The reality is that Russia is losing its status as a top-tier global power, its economic future, and its youth. Whether that translates to a "loss" on the battlefield depends on if Ukraine can hold its breath longer than Putin can keep his eyes open.
To understand the situation more clearly, you can track the monthly "War Report Card" from Russia Matters or monitor the UK Ministry of Defence's daily intelligence briefings, which provide the most consistent data on Russian equipment depletion. This is no longer a war of maneuver; it's a war of industrial and social endurance.