If you’ve spent any time on political Twitter or lurking in subreddits during an election cycle, you’ve seen the name. Rasmussen Reports. To some, it's the "gold standard" because it was one of the few to predict the 2016 upset. To others, it’s a partisan megaphone that exists mostly to generate headlines for conservative media.
So, is rasmussen a good poll, or is it just a outlier designed to make one side feel better?
Honestly, the answer isn't a simple yes or no. It depends entirely on what you’re trying to find out. If you want a snapshot of how the "average American" feels on a Tuesday afternoon, you might want to look elsewhere. But if you’re trying to figure out what the most motivated, likely-to-show-up voters are thinking, Rasmussen has a track record that’s harder to dismiss than its critics like to admit.
The Method to the Madness (and Landlines)
Most of the beef people have with Rasmussen starts with how they actually get their data. While the "gold standard" firms like Gallup or Pew often use live interviewers who call cell phones and landlines, Rasmussen uses a mix of automated phone calls—yes, the "robocalls" everyone hates—and online surveys.
There’s a massive debate about this.
Critics argue that automated calls mostly reach older, more conservative people who still have a landline and actually pick it up. You know, the folks who don't immediately hit "block" when an unknown number pops up. This creates a natural "house effect" where their results consistently lean Republican by a few points compared to the rest of the field.
Likely Voters vs. Registered Voters
One big thing that makes Rasmussen an outlier is that they almost exclusively poll likely voters.
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Most other pollsters start by polling "all adults" or "registered voters." It’s a wider net. But here’s the thing: lots of people say they’ll vote and then spend Election Day on the couch. Rasmussen tries to filter those people out early. Historically, likely voter models tend to favor Republicans because their base—generally older and more suburban—shows up more consistently than the younger, more transient Democratic base.
Is that a bias? Sorta. But in an election, only the people who show up actually matter. In 2016, this focus helped them stay closer to the actual result while other pollsters were predicting a Clinton landslide based on a broader, less reliable pool of "adults."
The 538 Drama: Why Nate Silver Walked Away
You can’t talk about whether is rasmussen a good poll without mentioning the 2024 fallout with 538 (formerly FiveThirtyEight). For years, the data-heavy site included Rasmussen in its averages, albeit with a "weighting" to account for their Republican lean.
Then, things got messy.
In early 2024, 538—now under ABC News—booted Rasmussen from its aggregation entirely. G. Elliott Morris, the lead at 538, basically said the firm failed to meet their transparency and methodology standards. They pointed to things like "dubious" poll questions and the firm's increasing tendency to post highly partisan content on social media.
Rasmussen didn’t take it lying down. They claimed the move was politically motivated "cancel culture" from a mainstream media that couldn't handle their results.
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Does being an outlier make you wrong?
Not necessarily.
- In 2010, they were criticized for being too pro-Republican, but then the GOP had a historic "shellacking" of Democrats in the midterms.
- In 2020, they were actually quite close to the final national popular vote, even though they were mocked for showing Trump with a high approval rating throughout the year.
- However, in 2022, they (and many other "right-leaning" pollsters) predicted a massive Red Wave that ended up being more of a pink trickle.
The problem for a lot of data nerds isn't just the results; it’s the questions. If you ask, "Do you support the government’s plan to raise your taxes?" you’re going to get a different answer than if you ask, "Do you support a plan to fund schools by taxing the ultra-wealthy?" Critics argue Rasmussen’s wording often leads the witness toward a conservative response.
Accuracy vs. Narrative
There is a huge difference between a poll’s accuracy and its utility.
If you look at the 2024 cycle, Rasmussen's final national poll had Trump up by 3 points. The actual result was a Trump win in the popular vote by about 1.5 to 2 points. In the world of polling, being within 1 or 2 points is actually a "win." They were more accurate than several prestigious university polls that showed a 4-point Harris lead.
But accuracy isn't everything.
Reliability matters too. A broken clock is right twice a day, and a pollster that always leans 3 points to the right will look like a genius when the GOP has a good night and like a hack when they don't.
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The Ad Fontes Factor
Ad Fontes Media, which tracks media bias, puts Rasmussen in the "Strong Right" category for bias but "Generally Reliable" for fact reporting. Basically, they aren't making up the numbers, but they are framing the story in a very specific way.
What to Look for Next Time You See a Rasmussen Poll
If you’re trying to decide if you should trust their latest number, don't just look at the headline. Headlines are meant for clicks. Instead, do this:
- Check the Trend: Is the number going up or down within Rasmussen’s own data? If Trump was at 48% last month and 45% this month in their polls, that tells you something about momentum, regardless of whether the 48% was too high to begin with.
- Look at the Sample: Did they poll 1,500 people or 500? Larger samples mean a smaller margin of error.
- Compare the "House Effect": If Rasmussen has a candidate +5 and the "Gold Standard" polls have them +1, assume the truth is probably somewhere around +2 or +3.
The Actionable Reality
Rasmussen isn't "fake news," but it isn't the gospel either. It’s a specific tool that looks at a specific part of the electorate—older, more engaged, and generally more conservative.
If you want to use polling data effectively:
- Never rely on one pollster. Use aggregators like RealClearPolitics or the Silver Bulletin that include everyone.
- Ignore the spin. Read the actual questions asked. If they sound biased, the answer probably is too.
- Pay attention to the outliers. Sometimes the "consensus" is just a bunch of pollsters afraid to be different. Rasmussen is never afraid to be different, and sometimes, that’s exactly why they catch things others miss.
When asking is rasmussen a good poll, the smartest approach is to treat it like a weather report from a station that always predicts it'll be a little bit sunnier than it actually is. It’s still useful, as long as you remember to bring an umbrella just in case.
Check the methodology of any poll you see on social media before sharing it. Look for the "Margin of Error" (MOE)—if the lead is smaller than the MOE, the race is effectively a tie, no matter what the headline says.