Walk into a diner in Sussex County and you’ll see red hats, talk of property tax revolts, and a general vibe that feels more like rural Pennsylvania than the outskirts of New York City. Then, hop in a car and drive sixty miles south to Jersey City or Newark. Suddenly, you’re in one of the bluest pockets of America.
So, is NJ red or blue? Honestly, it’s a trick question.
If you look at the raw data from the most recent cycles, the easy answer is blue. In January 2026, the state is under a Democratic "trifecta." They’ve got the Governor’s mansion, the State Senate, and the General Assembly. Just a few months ago, in November 2025, Mikie Sherrill—a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor—kept the blue streak alive by defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the gubernatorial race. She’s actually about to be sworn in as the first female Democratic governor in the state’s history.
But that 14-point win for Sherrill doesn't tell the whole story. If you only look at the "blue" label, you’re missing the massive tectonic shifts happening under the surface.
Why the Blue Label Is Kinda Misleading
New Jersey hasn't gone for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988. That’s a long time. It’s why pundits usually color it a deep, dark blue on election night maps before the polls even close.
But look at the 2024 presidential results. Kamala Harris won the state, sure, but the margin was only about 6%. For context, Joe Biden won it by 16% just four years earlier. That is a massive 10-point swing. Donald Trump actually became the first Republican to lose the state by single digits in two decades.
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You saw it in places like Passaic and Hudson counties. These are diverse, working-class areas that usually go deep blue. In 2024, they swung right. Why? It wasn't necessarily because people suddenly loved the GOP platform. It was mostly about the "pocketbook" stuff.
The Reality of "Deep Blue" New Jersey
New Jersey isn't a monolith. It’s more like a collection of 21 mini-states that all happen to share the same overpriced Parkway tolls.
The state's political identity is basically a tug-of-war between three distinct regions:
- The Urban/Suburban Core: Hudson, Essex, and Camden counties. These are the engines of the Democratic party. High turnout here usually carries the state for Democrats.
- The "Red" Northwest and Shore: Sussex, Warren, and Ocean counties. This is Trump country. Ocean County consistently gives Republicans over 60% of the vote. If you live here, you probably feel like the state government in Trenton doesn't represent you at all.
- The Swing Suburbs: This is where the real action happens. Places like Morris and Somerset counties used to be reliably Republican "country club" areas. Now? They’ve moved toward the Democrats, largely because of a shift in college-educated suburban voters. Interestingly, Mikie Sherrill actually won Morris County in 2025—the first time a Democrat did that in a governor's race since the early 70s.
Is NJ Red or Blue When It Comes to the State House?
While the feds see New Jersey as a safe bet for Democrats, the state-level stuff is way more competitive. Before the current Democratic run, we had Chris Christie for eight years. Before him, we had Kim Guadagno (as LG) and then a flip-flop of parties going back decades.
New Jerseyans have a weird habit of voting for Democrats for President and then seriously considering a Republican for Governor. Why? Because of the "T" word.
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Taxes.
New Jersey has the highest property taxes in the nation. It’s the universal grievance. In the 2025 election, poll after poll showed that taxes were the number one issue for voters—even ahead of things like healthcare or "threats to democracy."
Jack Ciattarelli almost pulled off a miracle in 2021 by focusing entirely on the cost of living. Even though he lost to Sherrill in 2025, he kept the conversation focused on the fact that it’s just too expensive to live here.
The Unaffiliated Factor
Here’s a stat that usually shocks people: the largest group of voters in New Jersey isn't Democrats or Republicans. It’s "unaffiliated" voters.
As of late 2025, there are over 2.1 million unaffiliated voters in the state. They outnumber registered Republicans by about half a million. These are the people who actually decide the elections. They don’t care about party loyalty; they care about who’s going to fix the PATH train or lower their tax bill.
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What to Watch Moving Into 2026
With Mikie Sherrill taking over for Phil Murphy, the state is staying blue for now. The Democrats even expanded their majority in the General Assembly during the last cycle.
But don't let that fool you into thinking the state is "settled." The rightward shift among working-class voters in the 2024 presidential election proved that the Democratic hold on the state is more fragile than it looks.
If the GOP can find a way to appeal to those suburban voters in Bergen and Middlesex while keeping their base in Ocean County energized, New Jersey could easily slip back into "purple" territory.
Actionable Insights for 2026:
- Voter Registration: If you're one of the millions of unaffiliated voters, remember that NJ has "closed" primaries. You have to declare a party to vote in the June primary, though you can switch back later.
- Property Tax Relief: Keep an eye on the "Stay NJ" program and other tax relief initiatives. This will be the main battleground in the State House over the next two years.
- Local Elections Matter: While the Governor gets the headlines, the real shifts are happening at the municipal level. Watch the school board races in your town; that's where the next generation of NJ political trends usually starts.
New Jersey might look blue on the map, but it’s got a bright red heart in the hills and a very skeptical "purple" mind in the suburbs. It’s a state of contradictions, and that’s exactly what makes it so unpredictable.
If you're looking to get involved or just want to track how your specific town voted, the best resource is the New Jersey Division of Elections official website. They provide the most granular data on municipality-level swings, which is where the real story of Jersey's political future is being written.