Gavin Newsom is done. At least, he’s done with the governor’s mansion in Sacramento after this current stretch. If you’ve been watching the California political carousel and wondering why everyone is suddenly elbowing each other for a spot on the 2026 ballot, there is a very simple, legal reason for the chaos.
The short answer is yes. Gavin Newsom is absolutely term-limited.
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He can't run for Governor of California again in 2026. Period. It doesn't matter how much money he raises or how many national ads he runs about freedom and "the California way." The state constitution is pretty brutal about this, and for Newsom, the clock is ticking down to January 2027.
Why Newsom Can’t Run Again
California isn't like some states where you can take a break and come back later. Since 1990, the rules have been rock solid. A person can only serve two terms as governor in their entire lifetime.
Newsom won his first term in 2018. He won his second in 2022. That’s two.
Even though he survived a high-stakes recall election in 2021, that didn't reset the clock. A lot of people thought maybe the recall was a "special" thing that didn't count toward his limit, but that's just not how the law works. The 2021 vote was basically a "do you want to keep him?" question, not a new election for a new term. Because he stayed in office, he just finished out the term he was already in.
The Lifetime Ban
Some states have "consecutive" term limits. In those places, you could serve eight years, go sit on a beach for four, and then run again. Not here. California uses a lifetime cap. Once you’ve hit that two-term ceiling, you are legally barred from ever holding the office of governor again.
Interestingly, this wasn't always the case. Jerry Brown is the famous outlier. He served four terms total. He did two in the 70s and 80s, then came back decades later for two more starting in 2011. Why? Because the strict lifetime limits passed while he was out of office, and the law wasn't retroactive for the terms he'd already served. Newsom doesn't have that luxury. He’s the first governor to be fully squeezed by the modern interpretation of these rules from start to finish.
What This Means for the 2026 Election
Since Newsom is "termed out," the 2026 race is wide open. It’s basically a gold rush.
Honestly, it’s already getting crowded. We're seeing big names like Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis and former Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins jumping in. Even some guys who haven't officially said it yet—like Attorney General Rob Bonta—are clearly measuring the drapes.
Because there’s no incumbent, the primary is going to be a bloodbath. California uses a "top-two" primary system. This means everyone runs on one big ballot, and the top two finishers move to the general election, regardless of their party. Without Newsom at the top of the ticket to scare people off, expect a dozen or more serious Democrats to cannibalize each other’s funding.
The Newsom Legacy Pivot
You've probably noticed Newsom is everywhere lately. He's on podcasts like This Is Gavin Newsom. He’s picking fights with governors in Florida and Texas. He’s spending campaign cash on ads in states he isn't even running in.
Why? Because when you're term-limited, you have two choices: go home and sell wine, or find a bigger job.
Newsom is clearly looking at the White House. Since he can’t be governor anymore, he’s spending his final year (2026) trying to solidify a national "brand." He’s focusing on things that play well in a presidential primary—climate change, reproductive rights, and "protecting democracy"—rather than just the nitty-gritty of the California budget deficit, which is currently hovering around $18 billion.
Specific Rules You Should Know
If you're a political nerd, the fine print matters. Here is the breakdown of the legal framework that keeps Newsom from running:
- California Constitution, Article V, Section 2: This is the specific "hammer." It says no governor may serve more than two terms.
- The 1990 Turning Point: Proposition 140 was the ballot measure that originally set these limits. It was later refined, but the core "two-term" rule has held up through every legal challenge.
- The Jerry Brown Loophole: As mentioned, Brown was the "grandfathered" exception. Newsom is the first "pure" two-term limit case under the full weight of the modern law.
Could He Run for Something Else?
Yes. Term limits in California are office-specific. Newsom could theoretically run for the State Senate or even go back and be Lieutenant Governor again (though that would be a weird career move). Most people assume he’s done with state-level politics.
The most likely path? A 2028 presidential run. Being term-limited in early 2027 gives him exactly one year to build a national campaign infrastructure without the headache of running a state that has a massive housing crisis and a persistent homeless population.
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Actionable Insights for California Voters
Since we know for a fact Newsom is leaving, here is what you need to do to stay ahead of the curve:
1. Watch the "Trial Balloons"
Between now and the June 2026 primary, candidates will be testing messages. If someone starts talking exclusively about "affordability," they're trying to peel off moderate voters. If they're talking about "single-payer healthcare," they're hunting for the progressive base Newsom occasionally frustrated.
2. Follow the Money
California governor races are insanely expensive. Newsom raised over $50 million for his first run. Watch the 2026 fundraising reports. Whoever has the most cash by mid-2025 is likely the person the party establishment has decided to back.
3. Don't Fall for the "Third Term" Rumors
You will see conspiracy theories on social media claiming Newsom is trying to change the law to stay in power. He isn't. Changing the state constitution requires a massive ballot initiative and a public vote. There is no serious movement to do this. He is leaving on January 4, 2027, whether he wants to or not.
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4. Focus on the May Revision
Newsom’s final big act will be the 2026 budget. This is where he will try to "seal" his legacy. Look for him to dump money into pet projects like "California Jobs First" or his healthcare expansions for undocumented residents. These are his "exit interview" highlights.
The 2026 election will be the first time in eight years California hasn't had a "presumptive" winner. It’s going to be loud, expensive, and probably a little exhausting. But the one thing you can take to the bank is that Newsom’s name won’t be on the ballot for Governor.