If you just look at the map, New Mexico looks like a solid, unwavering block of blue. It’s been that way for a while now. But honestly, if you live here or spend any time talking to people in the South Valley or out in the oil patches of Lea County, you know the "is New Mexico red or blue 2024" question isn't quite as simple as a single color.
Yes, Kamala Harris carried the state. She grabbed those five electoral votes with 51.9% of the vote. Donald Trump trailed behind at 45.9%. On paper, that’s a blue win. But there is a massive "but" hanging over those numbers.
The Shift Nobody Expected
In 2020, Joe Biden won New Mexico by roughly 11 points. Fast forward to 2024, and that margin shrank to just about 6 points. That is a huge swing in political terms.
You’ve got to look at the counties to see where the friction is. Trump actually gained ground in 30 out of New Mexico's 33 counties. Even in the Democratic strongholds—the Rio Grande corridor, places like Bernalillo and Doña Ana—the "red" needle moved. It didn't flip the state, but it certainly made things feel a lot tighter than usual.
Basically, the state stayed blue, but it’s a lighter shade of blue than it was four years ago.
Is New Mexico Red or Blue 2024? Breaking Down the Map
When people ask "is New Mexico red or blue 2024," they are usually looking for a binary answer. The reality is more of a mosaic.
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The Blue Anchors
- Bernalillo County: This is the big one. Albuquerque carries the state’s Democratic weight. Harris took about 59% here. Without the 505, New Mexico would be a very different place politically.
- Santa Fe County: Still deep blue. Harris crushed it here with over 73% of the vote.
- Taos and Los Alamos: These mountain and lab-heavy areas stayed firmly in the blue camp, with Taos giving Harris 72%.
The Red Strongholds
- The Oil Patch: Down in the southeast, it’s a different world. Lea County went 80% for Trump. Eddy County wasn't far behind at 77%.
- The "Little Texas" Area: Places like Curry and Roosevelt counties remain deeply Republican, often voting 70% or more for the GOP.
The middle ground is where it gets weird. You had counties like Socorro and Guadalupe that were incredibly close. In Guadalupe, the margin was basically 1%. That’s a razor-thin edge for a state that people think of as "safe" for Democrats.
What Happened with the Hispanic Vote?
New Mexico has the highest percentage of Hispanic residents in the country. For decades, the conventional wisdom was that this demographic was a "blue wall." 2024 cracked that wall.
While Harris still won the majority of Hispanic voters in New Mexico, the shift toward Trump was noticeable. It’s the same trend we saw in South Texas. Economic concerns—inflation, the price of gas, the cost of groceries at Smith’s or Albertsons—seemed to outweigh traditional party loyalty for a lot of families.
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Beyond the President: The Down-Ballot Reality
It wasn't just about the White House. New Mexico’s identity as a blue state is reinforced by its representation in D.C.
Martin Heinrich kept his Senate seat, beating Nella Domenici with 55% of the vote. That’s a comfortable 10-point lead. In the House, all three Democratic incumbents won their races. Gabe Vasquez in the 2nd District had the toughest fight, but he still pulled through with 52% against Yvette Herrell.
But look at the state legislature. While Democrats kept control, Republicans actually picked up a few seats in the State Senate. Jay Block and Gabriel Ramos flipped seats that used to be blue.
This tells us that New Mexico voters are willing to split their tickets. They might vote for a Democratic Senator while simultaneously wanting a Republican voice in Santa Fe.
The Swing State Debate
For a minute there, right before the election, some pollsters were wondering if New Mexico was becoming a "swing state." The Cook Political Report even moved it from "Solid Democratic" to "Likely Democratic" in the summer of 2024.
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So, did it actually swing? Not really. A 6-point margin is still a clear win. However, it was the worst margin for a Democrat in this state since 2004, when John Kerry actually lost New Mexico to George W. Bush.
If this trend continues—if the GOP keeps chipping away 2% or 3% every four years—New Mexico could find itself on the "battleground" map by 2028 or 2032.
What This Means for You
If you’re trying to understand the political vibe of the Land of Enchantment right now, here is the takeaway:
- Urban vs. Rural Divide: The gap is widening. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces are holding the line for Democrats, while the rest of the state is moving further right.
- Economic Voting: The "blue" label is no longer guaranteed. Voters in New Mexico are increasingly focused on the economy over social issues.
- Third-Party Noise: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others took a small but significant 2.3% of the vote. In a tight race, that’s enough to cause a headache.
The best way to track New Mexico's trajectory is to keep an eye on the 2026 gubernatorial race. That will be the real test. Without a presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, we’ll see if the "red shift" was a Trump-specific phenomenon or a permanent change in New Mexico's political DNA.
To get a better sense of how your specific area voted, check out the precinct-level maps on the New Mexico Secretary of State website. They offer a much more granular view than the big "red or blue" county maps you see on the news. Comparing your local results to 2020 can show you exactly how much your own community’s political leaning shifted over the last four years.