If you’ve spent any time driving the Garden State Parkway or arguing about where North Jersey ends, you know this state doesn't do things halfway. People love to slap a label on us. Usually, that label is "Deep Blue." But honestly, if you look at the 2024 maps versus the 2025 gubernatorial landslide, the answer to is new jersey red or blue state gets a little complicated.
It’s a blue state that periodically has a mid-life crisis and flirts with the GOP.
For a minute there, back in 2024, Republicans were feeling pretty good. Donald Trump pulled within about 5 or 6 points of Kamala Harris. In a state where Joe Biden won by 16 points just four years earlier, that felt like a political earthquake. Pundits started whispering the "P" word: Purple.
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Then 2025 happened.
The 2025 Reset and Why it Matters
Last November, Mikie Sherrill basically put those "purple state" rumors to bed, at least for now. She didn't just win the governor’s race; she crushed it. We're talking a 14-point margin over Jack Ciattarelli. It was the first time in over 60 years that the same party won the governorship three times in a row in New Jersey.
Think about that. We usually get bored and swap parties every eight years like clockwork. Not this time.
The state is currently a Democratic trifecta. That means Democrats hold the Governor’s office, the State Senate, and the General Assembly. As of January 2026, the Assembly is sitting at 57 Democrats to 23 Republicans. That’s not a "toss-up" state. That’s a lopsided scoreboard.
Where the "Red" Actually Lives
Don’t let the statewide numbers fool you, though. New Jersey is not a monolith. It’s more like a tie-dye shirt where the colors refuse to mix.
If you head into Ocean County or down to Cape May, you’re in deep red territory. These aren't just "leaning" Republican areas; they are the heart of the GOP base here. In 2024, Trump even managed to flip Passaic County, which was a huge deal because of its diverse, working-class population.
But then you have the "Blue Wall."
- Essex County: Home to Newark. It’s a Democratic fortress.
- Hudson County: Jersey City and Hoboken. Solid blue.
- Mercer County: The Princeton and Trenton crowd.
The real tug-of-war happens in the suburbs. Places like Morris County—which used to be the Republican gold standard—voted for Sherrill in 2025. That’s a massive shift. When Morris goes blue, Republicans have a very narrow path to winning anything statewide.
Is New Jersey Red or Blue State? The "Blue Trough" Theory
Some experts, like State Senator Andrew Zwicker, called the 2024 Republican surge a "blue trough" rather than a "red wave." Basically, Democrats stayed home because they were annoyed about inflation or the price of eggs, while Republicans were fired up.
When the 2025 election rolled around, the turnout jumped to over 50%. That's huge for a year when there isn't a President on the ballot. When New Jerseyans actually show up in high numbers, the state almost always tilts blue.
Voter registration tells the same story. There are roughly 2.4 million registered Democrats compared to 1.5 million Republicans. But the "wild card" is the 2.1 million unaffiliated voters. They’re the ones who decide if a Republican like Chris Christie or Christine Todd Whitman gets a shot at the big chair.
Understanding the 2026 Landscape
Right now, the state is firmly blue. But it’s a specific kind of Jersey blue. It’s moderate on some things, progressive on others, and always, always obsessed with property taxes.
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If you're trying to figure out the political vibe here, look at the margins. When a Democrat wins by 5 points (like in 2024), the state feels purple. When they win by 14 points (like in 2025), the GOP looks like it's in the wilderness.
Actionable Insights for Following NJ Politics:
- Watch the Turnout: High turnout in NJ almost always favors Democrats. If participation is low, the GOP’s disciplined base can pull off upsets in the legislature.
- Follow the "Big Five" Counties: Keep an eye on Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, and Camden. If a Republican isn't competitive in at least one of these, they can't win statewide.
- Check the Unaffiliateds: Since over 30% of voters aren't in a party, the "mood" of the suburbs in places like Monmouth or Somerset is the best crystal ball for the next election cycle.
New Jersey remains a reliably blue state for federal elections, having not voted for a Republican president since 1988. However, its state-level politics will always be a high-stakes, block-by-block fight where the "red" pockets are much stronger than a simple color-coded map suggests.