If you spend any time on political Twitter—or "X" as the billionaire class calls it—you’ve likely seen Nate Silver called a "closet MAGA operative" and a "DNC shill" in the same afternoon. It’s wild. One day he’s the darling of the left for predicting Obama’s sweep, and the next, liberals are burning their copies of The Signal and the Noise because his model gave Donald Trump a fighting chance.
So, let's cut through the noise. Is Nate Silver pro Trump? The short answer is: No, not in the way most people mean it. But the long answer is way more interesting and tells us a lot about how broken our political brains have become. Honestly, Silver is a guy who cares about the "River"—his term for the community of poker players, bettors, and quants who prioritize expected value over tribal loyalty. To a "Riverian," the most offensive thing isn't a candidate's policy; it’s a bad forecast.
The 2024 and 2026 Shift: Why the "Pro-Trump" Allegations Stuck
The rumors really started cooking during the 2024 election cycle. While many mainstream outlets were trying to manifest a "Blue Wave" or a comfortable Kamala Harris victory, Silver’s Silver Bulletin was flashing yellow. At one point in late 2024, his model gave Trump a 64% chance of winning.
To the "Village"—Silver’s name for the East Coast media establishment and Democratic activists—reporting that Trump is the favorite is the same thing as wanting him to win.
But look at the data. Silver wasn't pulling those numbers out of thin air to help the GOP. He was looking at "fundamentals" and the fact that Harris was underperforming in key "Blue Wall" states like Pennsylvania and Michigan compared to historical benchmarks. When Trump eventually regained the White House and moved into his second term (the one we’re living through now in 2026), Silver didn't take a victory lap for the Republican party. He took a victory lap for his model.
The Peter Thiel Connection
One specific detail people love to point to is Silver’s relationship with Peter Thiel. Silver became an advisor to Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform that received significant backing from Thiel’s Founders Fund.
Since Thiel is a well-known conservative mega-donor, the logic for many critics is simple:
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- Thiel likes Trump.
- Thiel funds Polymarket.
- Silver works for Polymarket.
- Therefore, Silver is pro-Trump.
It’s a neat little syllogism, but it ignores how these guys actually think. In Silver’s world, Polymarket is better than a CNN poll because people are putting their actual money on the line. He’s obsessed with "skin in the game." He’s argued that betting markets are often more accurate than pundits because they aren't blinded by "hopium."
That Time He Tore Into the Democrats
If you want to know why some people think he’s turned a corner, you have to look at his recent commentary. Just a few weeks ago, in early 2026, Silver went on a bit of a tear about the Democratic party’s refusal to "admit they f—ed up" in the 2024 cycle.
He’s been incredibly critical of the DNC for sticking with an aging Joe Biden for too long and then "coronating" Harris without a competitive primary. To Silver, this wasn't a moral failing—it was a tactical error. He views the Democratic establishment as a "personality cult" that can’t handle uncomfortable data.
"Democrats more than doubled their chance of winning overnight when they swapped Biden for Harris," Silver noted back in 2024. "But they still didn't address the underlying issue: they’ve lost touch with the 'River' and are stuck in the 'Village'."
Does criticizing Democrats make you pro-Trump? In the eyes of a partisan, yes. In the eyes of a statistician? It just makes you a realist.
The Math Doesn't Have a Party
Kinda funny, isn't it? We live in an era where "the math is biased" is a common sentiment.
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Silver has historically described his own politics as "liberal-libertarian." He’s lived in New York and Chicago, he’s pro-LGBTQ+ rights, and he’s famously skeptical of government overreach. In the past, he’s admitted to voting for Obama. He isn't out there wearing a red hat or attending rallies in Mar-a-Lago.
But Silver has a very specific "ick" for what he calls "expert-class groupthink."
Why He Often Defends Trump’s Chances
Silver’s model is built to account for the "uncertainty" that other pollsters ignore. In 2016, most outlets gave Trump a 1% or 2% chance. Silver gave him 29%.
- People called him a "Trump apologist" for giving him a 1-in-3 chance.
- When Trump won, Silver was the only one who looked sane.
- He learned that the "Trump voter" is uniquely hard to capture in traditional phone polls.
Because he adds "weight" to the possibility of a polling error that favors Republicans, his final projections often look "friendlier" to Trump than a standard New York Times aggregate. He’s not being pro-Trump; he’s trying not to get burned again by the same "shy Trump voter" phenomenon that wrecked everyone else's reputation.
The 2026 Reality: Analyzing Trump's Second Term
Fast forward to today. We’re in the thick of the 2026 midterms, and Trump is dealing with a messy second term involving everything from Venezuelan military operations to controversies over Federal Reserve independence.
Silver’s Silver Bulletin has been tracking Trump’s approval rating, which currently sits at about 42% approve and 54% disapprove. If Silver were "pro-Trump," you'd expect him to massage those numbers. Instead, he’s been pointing out that despite low gas prices (under $2.50 in many states!), Trump’s approval is "underwater" and weaker than it was a few months ago.
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He’s essentially saying: "Look, the economy is doing okay on paper, but the public is tired of the drama." That doesn't sound like a partisan hack to me. It sounds like a guy reading a spreadsheet.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Nate Silver is a "pundit." He’s not. He’s a gambler who found a way to make gambling look like journalism.
When he says Trump has a 60% chance of winning, he isn't saying he wants Trump to win. He’s saying that if you and he were at a poker table, and you bet against Trump, he’d take your money because the odds are in his favor.
How to read Silver without getting mad:
- Separate the Forecast from the Favor: A doctor telling you that you have a 70% chance of a heart attack isn't "pro-heart attack."
- Watch the "River" vs "Village" distinction: If Silver is attacking a "Village" institution (like the NYT or the DNC), he’s attacking their logic, not necessarily their goals.
- Look at the residuals: Silver is obsessed with where the polls are wrong. If polls have a history of undercounting Republicans, he will adjust for that. That’s just good science.
The Actionable Takeaway
If you’re trying to figure out where the country is headed, you have to learn to think like Nate Silver, even if you hate his guts.
Stop looking at polls as "who is winning" and start looking at them as "ranges of probability." The reason Nate Silver gets labeled "pro-Trump" is that he refuses to tell his audience that the candidate they hate has a 0% chance of winning.
What you can do next: Start following "non-traditional" indicators. Don't just look at the Silver Bulletin or 538. Look at prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi. See where the "smart money" is moving. Often, when the betting markets and the polls disagree, the betting markets (the "River") end up being right because they aren't influenced by what people want to happen.
Nate Silver isn't on Team Red or Team Blue. He’s on Team Data. And in a world where everyone wants to be told they’re winning, the guy telling you it’s a coin flip is always going to be the villain.
Check the latest approval aggregates on the Silver Bulletin yourself. If you see a -12 net approval for the President, you’ll know Silver hasn't joined the administration quite yet. He’s just sitting by the river, waiting for the next bet.