Missouri used to be the psychic of the American political world. For over a century, if you wanted to know who would be sitting in the Oval Office, you just looked at the results from St. Louis to Springfield. It was the ultimate bellwether. That era is dead. Today, asking is Missouri Democrat or Republican yields a complicated answer that depends entirely on whether you’re looking at the people holding the gavels in Jefferson City or the laws voters are passing at the ballot box.
On paper, the state is deep red. Republicans hold every single statewide elected office—a "triplex" and a "trifecta" in political nerd-speak. In the 2024 General Election, Donald Trump carried the state by over 18 points, and Governor Mike Kehoe cruised to victory with nearly 60% of the vote. It feels like a conservative fortress. Yet, the same voters who sent Republicans to the capital also voted to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution and hiked the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
It’s weird. It’s Missouri.
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If you walk through the halls of the State Capitol today, in early 2026, you won't see much blue. The Republican grip on the state's formal power structure is absolute. Governor Mike Kehoe recently delivered his 2026 State of the State address, doubling down on a plan to entirely eliminate the state's individual income tax. That is a hallmark conservative goal.
The legislature isn't just Republican; it’s "supermajority" Republican. This means they can theoretically override vetoes without a single Democratic vote. This dominance isn't an accident. Over the last twenty years, the Democratic Party's influence has retreated from the "Bootheel" and the rural northern counties, huddling almost exclusively in the urban islands of St. Louis and Kansas City.
The numbers from 2024 tell a stark story:
- Donald Trump: 58.5%
- Kamala Harris: 40.1%
- Josh Hawley (Senate): 55.6%
- Mike Kehoe (Governor): 59.1%
When people ask is Missouri Democrat or Republican, these figures are the loudest evidence for the latter. The GOP has built a reliable coalition of rural voters and conservative suburbanites that Democrats haven't been able to crack in a statewide race for years. The last time a Democrat won a statewide seat was 2018, when Nicole Galloway became Auditor. Since then? Total lockout.
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The "Purple" Heart of the Ballot Box
Here is where the "red state" narrative gets messy. Missourians seem to hate Democratic candidates but love Democratic-leaning policies. It's a massive contradiction that defines the state's modern identity.
In November 2024, while Republicans were winning every major office, voters also passed Amendment 3. This wasn't a minor change; it established a constitutional right to abortion, effectively overturning one of the strictest bans in the country. It passed with 51.6% of the vote.
Think about that. Tens of thousands of Missourians walked into a voting booth, checked the box for Donald Trump and Josh Hawley, and then immediately checked the box to protect reproductive rights.
The same thing happened with Proposition A. Missourians voted to raise the minimum wage to $13.75 in 2025 and $15.00 by 2026. It also mandated paid sick leave. It passed with a whopping 58% of the vote—almost the exact same margin Mike Kehoe won by.
This isn't new. Over the past decade, Missouri voters have:
- Legalized recreational marijuana.
- Rejected "Right to Work" laws (a major blow to the GOP's labor platform).
- Expanded Medicaid despite the legislature's fierce opposition.
So, is Missouri Democrat or Republican? Politically, it’s a Republican state. Socially and economically, the voters often behave like Midwestern populists who don't care about party labels when a specific issue is on the line.
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The Geography of the Divide
The political map of Missouri looks like a vast sea of red with a few blue dots. But those dots are heavy. St. Louis City and County, along with Jackson County (Kansas City), are the engines of the Democratic Party. In 2024, St. Louis City went for the Democratic presidential ticket by a staggering +65 margin.
Boone County, home to the University of Missouri in Columbia, is the third blue pillar. It's a college town vibe that consistently leans left, going +10 for Democrats in the last cycle.
But then you have the rest. Missouri has 114 counties. In some rural areas like Stoddard or Texas County, Republicans routinely pull 80% or more of the vote. The "suburban shift" that has helped Democrats in states like Georgia or Arizona hasn't fully arrived here. While places like Clay and Platte counties near Kansas City are getting tighter, they still leaned Republican in 2024.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Elections
As we move through 2026, the Missouri Democratic Party is trying to figure out how to bridge this gap. Chelsea Rodriguez, the party's communications director, recently noted that they are focusing on "vulnerable" districts—places that voted for the minimum wage increase or abortion rights but still elected Republicans.
The goal for Democrats in the 2026 midterms isn't necessarily to win the governorship (that seat isn't up until 2028). It’s to "chip away" at the supermajority. They want to force Republicans to actually negotiate.
On the other side, Governor Kehoe and the GOP are leaning into their mandate. Their 2026 agenda is focused on fiscal discipline, cutting $600 million from the general revenue budget to prepare for a "normalized" post-pandemic economy. They are also pushing to modernize the tax code, betting that voters care more about their paychecks than the ideological friction of the ballot measures.
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What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Missouri is "the next Kansas" or "the next Illinois." It isn't. It’s stubbornly its own thing.
People see the abortion vote and think the state is turning blue. It's not. People see the Trump margins and think the state is ultra-conservative. It’s not.
Missouri is a state of independent-minded populists. They don't like being told what to do by the federal government, but they also don't like being told what to do by their own state legislature. They will vote for a Republican who promises lower taxes and then turn around and vote for a "liberal" policy that puts more money in their pocket or protects their personal privacy.
Actionable Insights for Following Missouri Politics
If you're trying to track whether the state is shifting, stop looking at the top of the ticket. Look at the margins in the "collar counties" around St. Louis and Kansas City. If Clay, Platte, and St. Charles counties start narrowing, the state’s Republican grip might be loosening.
Watch the ballot initiatives. In Missouri, the people have the power to bypass the legislature. If more progressive policies continue to pass while Republican candidates win, it proves the "party" brand is the problem for Democrats, not necessarily their ideas.
Finally, keep an eye on the 2026 state legislative races. If Democrats can flip even a handful of seats in the suburbs, it changes the math for the 2028 cycle. For now, Missouri remains a Republican stronghold with a very loud, very active populist streak that refuses to be ignored.
Check the official Missouri Secretary of State website for updated registration numbers as we get closer to the next filing deadlines. That's the real ground truth of where the state is heading.