You’ve probably seen the headlines lately. Maybe your portfolio tracker flashed red, or you heard someone on a podcast talking about "the end of the AI hype." It’s natural to feel a little jittery when you see a trillion-dollar giant like Meta Platforms (META) wobbling. Honestly, if you’re asking is meta stock going down, you aren't alone. As of mid-January 2026, the stock has been doing this weird, sideways-to-lower dance that’s making everyone from day traders to retirement savers a bit nervous.
But here is the thing: "going down" is a relative term in the world of Mark Zuckerberg.
Last year, Meta was a darling. In 2025, it was riding high on the "Year of Efficiency" momentum and a massive pivot to AI. But recently? We’ve seen a pullback. The stock is down about 16-19% from its all-time highs of roughly $796. It closed around $620 just a few days ago. For a company that once plummeted to $90 back in the dark days of 2022, this is hardly a death spiral, but it definitely feels like a vibe shift.
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The $100 Billion Question
So, why exactly is the price slipping? It basically boils down to one word: CapEx.
That’s short for capital expenditure, or "spending a boatload of money on stuff we hope makes money later." During the Q3 2025 earnings call, Meta dropped a bit of a bombshell. They told investors that their spending in 2026 would be "notably larger" than in 2025.
We’re talking about potentially $100 billion or more.
Most of that cash is going into data centers and massive piles of Nvidia chips (Zuckerberg famously said his compute power is worth "18 Nvidias"). For some investors, this feels like Deja Vu. They remember the $70 billion "Metaverse" hole and they're worried they're watching a sequel called The AI Money Pit.
- Infrastructure bloat: Building AI at this scale is eye-wateringly expensive.
- Margin squeeze: When you spend that much, your profit margins (which were a healthy 43% recently) start to look a bit thinner.
- Investor patience: People are starting to ask, "Okay, we bought the chips... where is the money?"
Why the "Crash" Narrative Might Be Wrong
If you look at the raw numbers, the "is meta stock going down" fear feels a bit disconnected from the actual business. Meta is still a literal cash-printing machine. Their "Family of Apps"—Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads—is doing just fine. Better than fine, actually.
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Revenue in the most recent quarter hit over $51 billion. That is a 26% jump year-over-year.
Think about that for a second. A company this big growing at 26% is almost unheard of. They have 3.54 billion people using their apps every single day. If you’re a brand and you want to sell something, you basically have to be on Instagram or Facebook.
And that AI spending? It’s not just for sci-fi research. It’s already working. Meta is using AI to figure out exactly what video will keep you scrolling for ten more minutes. They’ve seen time spent on Instagram watch-time jump by 30% because the algorithms are getting scarily good at reading our minds. For advertisers, this means more "eyeballs" and better targeting, which is why the average price per ad rose 10% recently.
The Risks Nobody Mentions
It’s not all sunshine and algorithms, though. There are some real, gritty reasons why the stock might continue to face pressure through 2026.
First, there’s the regulatory headache. The European Union has been breathing down Meta’s neck with the Digital Markets Act (DMA), and they’ve already slapped the company with billion-dollar fines. In the U.S., a federal court recently gave the green light for lawsuits regarding social media's impact on teen mental health. These aren't just "bad PR" moments; they are multi-billion-dollar legal liabilities that could drag on for years.
Then there’s the competition. TikTok is still a beast, and Amazon is quietly becoming a massive player in digital ads, stealing market share from the Google-Meta duopoly.
"Investors are essentially in a 'show me' phase," says Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik. He recently called Meta a "dark horse" for 2026 but warned that the upside comes with "notable risk."
Basically, the market is holding its breath until the Q4 2025 earnings report on January 28, 2026. Everyone wants to see if the "Metaverse" losses (which hit $4.4 billion in a single quarter recently) are finally being reined in. Zuckerberg has reportedly slashed the Reality Labs budget by 30%, which the market loved, but the jury is still out on whether "Orion"—their upcoming AR glasses—will be the next iPhone or the next Segway.
Is Meta Stock Still a Buy?
If you’re looking at the valuation, Meta actually looks kinda cheap compared to its peers. It’s trading at around 21 times its 2026 earnings estimates. To put that in perspective, Alphabet (Google) is sitting at a multiple of 29.
If Meta can prove that its AI investments are turning into actual profit—and not just more "compute"—the stock could easily rebound. Piper Sandler recently named it their "top large-cap pick for 2026," predicting revenue could hit $53 billion in the first quarter alone.
What to Watch Next
If you’re trying to decide whether to hold or fold, keep your eyes on these specific markers over the next few months:
- The January 28 Earnings Call: Watch the guidance for 2026 spending. If they raise the spending target again without showing higher revenue, expect the stock to drop further.
- WhatsApp Monetization: Everyone uses it, but Meta hasn't fully "turned on" the money faucet there yet. Any progress in "Click-to-Message" ads is a huge win.
- Llama 4 Release: Meta’s open-source AI model is their secret weapon. If it becomes the industry standard, they own the ecosystem without having to charge for it.
- The "Metaverse" Pivot: Look for more news on budget cuts in the VR division. Less spending there means more profit for shareholders.
In the short term, Meta might stay choppy. It might even go down a bit more if the broader tech sector takes a breather. But for the long haul? The company still owns the most valuable real estate on the internet: our attention.
Actionable Insight: Check your exposure to "Magnificent Seven" stocks. If you're over-leveraged, the current volatility in Meta is a reminder to diversify. However, if you're looking for a value play in Big Tech, watch for the $600 support level—if it holds there through the January earnings call, the "is meta stock going down" narrative might quickly flip back to a "buy the dip" story.