For years, the debate over whether Matthew Stafford belongs in Canton was the ultimate "litmus test" for how you view football. If you value raw talent and high-volume stats, you were probably all in. If you cared about wins and "Hardware," you likely pointed to those lean years in Detroit and shook your head.
But things look a whole lot different here in 2026.
After a monster 2025 campaign that saw Stafford finally—and I mean finally—earn a first-team All-Pro nod, the conversation has shifted from "if" to "when." Honestly, if you're still holding out, you're looking at a guy who just climbed over some of the biggest names in the history of the sport.
The Numbers Are Getting Ridiculous
Let's talk about the math. People used to call Stafford a "stat-padder" back when the Lions were trailing by three scores in the fourth quarter. It's a lazy narrative.
As of early 2026, Stafford has officially vaulted into the top 10 of almost every major passing category. He recently passed Matt Ryan for ninth all-time in career passing touchdowns (now sitting at 423) and is currently ninth in passing yards with over 64,500. He’s already ahead of Dan Marino in yards. He’s ahead of guys like John Elway in total starts.
Here’s the thing: Every single retired quarterback in the top 10 of these categories is either in the Hall of Fame or will be the second they are eligible.
The 2025 season was basically a "victory lap" for his resume. He threw for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns—leading the NFL in scores at age 37. It wasn't just volume; it was efficiency. He finished with a 109.2 passer rating. You can't call a guy a "system QB" when he's putting up those numbers 17 years into a career across two different franchises.
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The Missing Piece No One Can Use Against Him Anymore
For a decade, the knock was simple: "He can't win the big one."
Then 2021 happened. He went to the Rams, took them through a gauntlet of a postseason, and delivered a no-look pass to Cooper Kupp to secure a Super Bowl ring. That changed everything. It proved that the "Detroit problem" wasn't a "Stafford problem."
But the critics moved the goalposts. They said he was just a passenger on a team with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
That’s why the 2025-2026 stretch matters so much. This current Rams team is talented, sure, but Stafford is the engine. He didn't just ride the defense; he carried the offense to a 12-5 record and another deep playoff run. By winning another playoff game against the Panthers in January 2026, his postseason record moved to 6-5. That's more playoff wins than Hall of Famers like Y.A. Tittle or Warren Moon.
Comparing Him to the "Locked" Candidates
To see where Stafford stands, you have to look at his peers. The "Class of 2004" (Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers) and the guys who followed (Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson) are his real competition for a gold jacket.
- Eli Manning: Has two rings but never had the elite statistical efficiency. Stafford’s career passer rating and TD-to-INT ratio dwarf Eli’s.
- Philip Rivers: All the stats, but no ring. Stafford has both.
- Matt Ryan: One MVP, but the 28-3 shadow and lack of a ring hurt. Stafford just eclipsed him in career totals and has the championship.
Stafford’s recent All-Pro selection was the "prestige" boost he needed. Before 2025, he only had Pro Bowls. Now, he has that elusive First-Team All-Pro honor, which historically is a golden ticket for QBs. He broke Fran Tarkenton's record for the longest wait to get that first All-Pro nod, which says a lot about his longevity and late-career peak.
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The "Detroit Tax"
We have to acknowledge how much being a Lion suppressed his national reputation. For 12 years, he played in a dome for a team that struggled to build a defense. He was the fastest player to reach 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 yards.
People sort of ignored it because the team was losing. But look at what happened to the Lions after he left—they eventually found success with Jared Goff, but the trade itself was the catalyst for both franchises. It was the rare "everyone wins" deal. Stafford proved he was the missing piece for a contender.
Is He First-Ballot?
This is where it gets spicy.
First-ballot is a high bar reserved for the Bradys and Mahomes of the world. However, if Stafford finishes this 2025-26 postseason strong or adds an MVP trophy to that All-Pro honor (he's currently a finalist), the "first-ballot" talk becomes very real.
Even if he doesn't win the MVP, the sheer weight of his 64,000+ yards and 400+ touchdowns is too much for voters to ignore. He’s essentially turned into this generation’s version of Warren Moon or Brett Favre—a gunslinger who never saw a window he didn't think he could fit a ball through, but with the late-career discipline that turned him into a champion.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Stafford is just "compiling" stats.
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Watch the tape from this past season. At 37, he’s still got the sidearm lasers. He’s still manipulating safeties with his eyes. The connection he’s built with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams is proof that he can adapt to any receiving corps. He isn't just hanging on; he's arguably playing the best football of his life right now.
The Final Verdict
Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Famer. Period.
The combination of a Super Bowl ring, top-tier all-time stats, and now the All-Pro recognition makes him a lock. He survived the "football purgatory" of Detroit with his talent intact and proved his worth on the biggest stage in Los Angeles.
If you’re building a case against him, you’re basically arguing that the record books don't matter. But they do. And when he eventually walks away, those books will show him as one of the most prolific and resilient passers to ever put on a helmet.
Next Steps for Fans and Analysts:
Check the final MVP voting results when they drop in February. If Stafford takes it home or even finishes a close second to Drake Maye, his Hall of Fame induction becomes a "no-doubt" first-ballot event. In the meantime, keep an eye on his climb toward 450 touchdowns—he could hit that mark by mid-season next year if he stays healthy.