He already did.
If you’re still asking is Mamdani going to win, you might have missed the literal fireworks over the East River. As of January 1, 2026, Zohran Mamdani isn't just a candidate anymore; he is the 112th Mayor of New York City. He took the oath of office in a decommissioned, ghost-like subway station at midnight, which is about the most "New York" thing anyone has ever done.
Honestly, the "is he going to win" question was the soundtrack of 2025. Nobody really thought a 34-year-old democratic socialist from Queens—a former rapper who once went by the name Young Cardamom—could actually pull it off. But he did. He beat former Governor Andrew Cuomo in a primary that felt like a political earthquake and then sailed through the general election with just over 50% of the vote.
The Unlikely Rise of Mayor Zohran Mamdani
It’s kinda wild when you look at the stats. In April 2025, Mamdani was trailing Cuomo by nearly 30 points. People laughed at the idea of "city-run grocery stores" and "universal free buses." They called him a radical. They said the city wasn't ready for a Muslim mayor who talks openly about his faith and his socialist principles.
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Then, something shifted.
The campaign wasn't built on TV ads. It was built on 100,000 volunteers knocking on doors. It was built on the fact that rent in Astoria and Bed-Stuy had become so high that even the "middle class" was feeling the squeeze. Mamdani didn't talk like a politician; he talked like a guy who had spent years as a foreclosure counselor. Because he had.
Why the "Is He Going to Win" Doubt Was Wrong
The skeptics missed three big things:
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- The Youth Vote: Millennials and Gen Z didn't just show up; they organized.
- The Affordability Crisis: When Mamdani promised a rent freeze for 1 million rent-stabilized units, people stopped caring if he was "too left" and started caring if they could keep their apartments.
- The Ground Game: While other candidates were doing high-dollar fundraisers, Mamdani was at halal carts and subway platforms.
He basically leaned into his identity as a "B-list rapper" (his words, not mine) and a grassroots organizer to make the city’s political elite look out of touch. By the time the November 4, 2025 election results came in, the question wasn't if he would win, but how big the margin would be.
What Happens Now That He’s in City Hall?
Winning was the easy part. Now, Mamdani has to actually run the most complicated city on earth. He’s already making moves that have both the real estate lobby and the police unions sweating. On his first day in office—January 1, 2026—he didn't go to a gala. He went to an apartment building in Brooklyn to announce a new task force on tenant protections.
The Big 2026 Agenda
- Fare-Free Buses: He’s pushing to expand the pilot program to make the entire city bus network free.
- Public Child Care: A plan for universal, city-funded child care that he says will be paid for by taxing the city's millionaires.
- The Trump Relationship: This is the big one. President Trump has already threatened to pull federal funding from NYC because of Mamdani’s policies. They actually had a "cordial" meeting in November, but everyone expects that peace to break the moment a bike lane goes up near Trump Tower.
Mamdani’s father, the famous academic Mahmood Mamdani, and his mother, filmmaker Mira Nair, were both there at the inauguration. It was a moment of massive symbolic weight. A son of immigrants, born in Kampala, Uganda, now holds the keys to Gracie Mansion.
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Can He Actually Deliver?
That’s the real question for 2026. It’s one thing to win an election; it’s another to get a moderate City Council and a skeptical Governor Kathy Hochul to go along with a $30 minimum wage proposal.
He’s already staffed up with some "old hands" to balance out the young radicals. His pick for First Deputy Mayor, Dean Fuleihan, is 74 years old and served under Bill de Blasio. It’s a move designed to tell the business community, "Hey, we aren't going to burn the building down, we’re just changing the locks."
Actionable Next Steps for New Yorkers
If you’re living in NYC or just watching the "Mamdani Experiment" from afar, here is how to stay informed and involved:
- Track the Rent Guidelines Board: This is where the promised rent freeze will live or die. Watch the spring 2026 hearings closely.
- Monitor the Free Bus Pilot: Check the MTA's "Mamdani Routes" to see if your commute is about to become $0.
- Watch the Budget: The first real test of his power will be the June 2026 budget deadline. This is where we see if he can actually "tax the rich" or if Albany blocks him.
- Attend Community Safety Meetings: Mamdani is trying to move funding toward a "Department of Community Safety." If you care about policing, these local meetings are where the new policy will be debated.
The era of asking is Mamdani going to win is over. The era of seeing if a democratic socialist can actually govern a city of 8 million people has officially begun.