Politics in Arizona is a wild ride. Honestly, if you've been watching the news lately, you know the heat never really dies down in the Grand Canyon State. People keep asking the same question: is Katie Hobbs running for re-election?
Yeah, she is.
In fact, she didn't just quietly file some paperwork. Governor Hobbs officially launched her 2026 re-election bid back in October 2025. She’s leaning hard into a "pragmatic, issues-focused" vibe. It makes sense. Arizona is a purple state that just saw Donald Trump win it by over 5 points in 2024, so Hobbs knows she can't just coast on party loyalty. She has to talk to the middle.
The State of the Race (So Far)
Right now, Hobbs is sitting in a fairly strong spot within her own party. She filed her statement of interest with roughly $4.7 million cash-on-hand. That’s a decent war chest for an incumbent this early in the cycle.
What’s interesting is the lack of "friendly fire." While some early rumors suggested a primary challenge from big names like Secretary of State Adrian Fontes or Attorney General Kris Mayes, both have declined. They’re running for re-election in their own offices instead. Basically, the Democratic path is wide open for Hobbs.
On the other side of the aisle? It’s a literal crowd.
The Republican primary is already looking like a heavyweight bout. You’ve got:
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- Andy Biggs: The U.S. Representative and Freedom Caucus member. He’s got high name ID and is leading early primary polls.
- Karrin Taylor Robson: A developer and former Board of Regents member who has deep pockets and 2022 name recognition.
- David Schweikert: Another U.S. Representative who jumped in recently, looking to capture the more "moderate" or suburban GOP vote.
It's going to be messy. And in Arizona, "messy" usually means expensive.
Why This Election is Actually Different
You might think you’ve seen this movie before, but 2026 has a new twist. This will be the first time Arizona voters choose a Lieutenant Governor on a joint ticket.
Thanks to Proposition 131 passing back in 2022, we are finally joining most of the rest of the country. No more "who becomes Governor if something happens?" guessing games. Hobbs will have to pick a running mate, and that choice is going to be a huge signal of her campaign strategy. Does she pick a progressive to fire up the base, or a moderate from a swing county like Maricopa?
The Issues Hobbs is Betting On
If you listened to her State of the State address on January 12, 2026, you heard the roadmap. She’s not talking about "woke" stuff or even focusing primarily on the border (though she mentions it). She’s talking about your wallet.
Affordability and "The Big Beautiful Bill"
Hobbs is trying to pull a fast one on the GOP by embracing parts of Donald Trump’s federal tax cuts—specifically the parts that help middle-class families—while rejecting the corporate cuts. She’s calling it the "Middle Class Tax Cuts Package."
It’s a smart, if slightly cheeky, move. By using Trump's own branding (she literally called it the "Big Beautiful Bill" tax conformity plan), she’s trying to make it impossible for Republicans to vote against her without looking like they’re hurting their own constituents.
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Housing and Water
Arizona's median home price has gone through the roof. It’s a crisis, plain and simple. Hobbs is pushing a "Housing Acceleration Fund" to lower interest rates for first-time buyers.
Then there’s water. In Arizona, water is more than a utility; it’s survival. She’s positioning herself as the defender of Arizona’s water security against "big-tech" data centers and industrial farms that she claims are sucking the aquifers dry.
The Approval Rating Reality Check
Let's look at the numbers, because honestly, they’re a bit of a mixed bag.
A November 2025 Emerson College poll put her job approval at 39%, with 40% disapproval. That’s a classic "split down the middle" Arizona story. However, her campaign points to internal and other independent polling showing her with a positive +14 job approval rating earlier in 2025.
The truth? It depends on who you ask and when you ask them.
In a head-to-head matchup against Andy Biggs, the polls show a statistical dead heat: Hobbs at 44% and Biggs at 43%. If you’re a betting person, don't put your money down yet. This race is going to be decided by that 13% of undecided voters who are tired of the constant bickering.
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What Most People Get Wrong
People often assume that because Trump won Arizona in 2024, Hobbs is a "dead woman walking" politically. That's a mistake.
Arizona voters have a long history of "ticket splitting." They are perfectly happy voting for a Republican President and a Democratic Governor. They did it with Janet Napolitano, and they did it when they elected Hobbs while also being very friendly to GOP legislative candidates.
Hobbs’ strategy is to stay in that "problem solver" lane. She spent much of her recent speech talking about "vetoing the nonsense." Since she took office, she has set records for the number of vetoes issued, basically acting as a dam against the Republican-controlled legislature. Her supporters see this as "protecting the state," while her detractors call it "obstruction."
Actionable Insights for Arizona Voters
If you're following this race, there are a few things you should be doing right now to stay ahead of the curve.
1. Watch the Lieutenant Governor Pick
This is the biggest indicator of where Hobbs thinks she is weak. If she picks someone from Pima County (Tucson), she’s worried about turnout. If she picks a business leader from Scottsdale, she’s playing for the middle.
2. Follow the "Tax Conformity" Fight
This month (January 2026) is huge. The legislature is going to send her a massive tax cut bill. If she vetoes the whole thing, the GOP will hammer her on "raising taxes." If she signs her version, she steals their thunder. This is the first major battle of the re-election campaign.
3. Check the "ESA" Accountability
The school voucher program (Empowerment Scholarship Accounts) is a massive budget item. Hobbs wants more scrutiny on how that money is spent. Watch for stories about "luxury items" bought with voucher money—this is the narrative her team will use to try and reform the program without technically "ending" it.
The 2026 election cycle is officially here. Whether you like her or not, Katie Hobbs is doubling down on her vision for Arizona, and the next few months will determine if the voters are willing to give her another four years to finish the job.