The dust has finally settled in the Grand Canyon State. If you've been scrolling through social media lately, you've probably seen a thousand different takes on whether Kari Lake actually pulled it off this time. Arizona politics has a way of staying in the headlines long after the polls close, and the 2024 Senate race was no exception. It was loud, it was expensive, and for many voters, it was exhausting.
But here’s the short answer: No, Kari Lake did not win her race for the U.S. Senate in Arizona.
Democrat Ruben Gallego secured the victory, officially designated as the winner by major outlets like the Associated Press and the Phoenix-based election officials on November 12, 2024. Despite the state swinging toward Donald Trump at the presidential level, a significant number of Arizonans "split their tickets," voting for Trump for President but choosing Gallego for the Senate. This trend basically defined the 2024 cycle in Arizona.
Is Kari Lake Winning in Arizona Right Now?
To understand where things stand today in January 2026, we have to look at the final numbers from that 2024 showdown. Gallego ended up with 50.1% of the vote, while Lake trailed with 47.7%. In terms of raw votes, the gap was roughly 80,000 people. While that might sound like a lot, in the context of a state with millions of voters, it was actually closer than many of the summer polls had predicted.
The race was the fourth consecutive election cycle where a Democrat won a Senate seat in Arizona. That’s a massive shift for a state that was a Republican stronghold for decades. Lake, a former KSAZ-TV news anchor, was hoping to break that streak. Instead, the loss solidified Ruben Gallego as the first Latino senator in Arizona’s history.
Honestly, the "is she winning" question often pops up because Lake’s supporters are incredibly vocal online. There were weeks of ballot counting—Arizona is notoriously slow at this—which always creates a vacuum for rumors. During that period in November 2024, every time a new batch of votes came in from Pinal or Maricopa County, the percentages shifted. For a moment, it looked like Lake might close the gap, but the late-arriving mail-in ballots from urban areas ultimately favored Gallego.
✨ Don't miss: Who Is More Likely to Win the Election 2024: What Most People Get Wrong
Why the results surprised people
Most people expected the Senate race to mirror the presidential race. If Trump won Arizona—which he did, by a healthy margin—wouldn't his endorsed Senate candidate win too? Not quite.
Data from AP VoteCast showed that about 1 in 10 Trump voters actually switched sides when they got further down the ballot to vote for Gallego. This "ticket-splitting" is the main reason why Lake isn't sitting in Washington D.C. today. Voters seemed to view Gallego, an Iraq War veteran, as a more pragmatic choice, while Lake’s focus on 2022 election grievances didn't sit well with moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson.
What happened to Kari Lake after the election?
If you're wondering what she's doing now that she's not a Senator, she hasn't exactly retired to a quiet life. In early 2025, following the inauguration, Lake was tapped for a role in the federal government.
- Federal Appointment: Donald Trump appointed her to serve within the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM).
- Current Role: As of mid-2025, she has been serving as the Deputy CEO and Acting CEO of USAGM, overseeing international broadcasting like the Voice of America.
- Relocation: Just recently, in January 2026, news broke that Lake purchased a condo in Davenport, Iowa.
This Iowa move has set the political rumor mill on fire. Is she planning a run for office there? Is she just returning to her roots? She grew up in Iowa and graduated from the University of Iowa, so it’s not totally out of left field, but it certainly suggests her chapter as an Arizona candidate might be closing for now.
The "McCain Republican" factor
You can't talk about Kari Lake’s performance in Arizona without mentioning the late Senator John McCain. During her campaigns, Lake was famously critical of the "McCain wing" of the GOP. She even told McCain supporters to "get the hell out" during a 2022 rally.
🔗 Read more: Air Pollution Index Delhi: What Most People Get Wrong
That move came back to haunt her. In a state where McCain is still deeply respected by older, moderate Republicans, those comments acted like a ceiling on her support. While she had a rock-solid base of MAGA supporters, she struggled to build the "big tent" needed to win a statewide general election. Ruben Gallego, meanwhile, spent millions of dollars on ads specifically targeting those disenchanted Republicans.
The legal battles and the 2022 hangover
Part of why the question "is Kari Lake winning" persists is because Lake herself spent years arguing that she won the 2022 gubernatorial race against Katie Hobbs. She filed multiple lawsuits, alleging everything from signature verification issues to printer malfunctions in Maricopa County.
While these cases were almost entirely dismissed by Arizona courts—including the Arizona Supreme Court—the rhetoric kept the idea of her "winning" alive in the minds of her most loyal followers. When the 2024 results started coming in, the same skepticism was applied. However, by the time the state certified the results in late 2024, there was no legal path forward. Gallego was sworn into the Senate in early 2025, and the seat is now officially his until 2030.
Fundraising and the ground game
Money talks, and in Arizona, it shouts. Gallego was a fundraising powerhouse. He consistently out-raised Lake, allowing him to dominate the airwaves. He used that money to frame the narrative early, focusing on Lake's stance on abortion and her support for an 1864 territorial law that would have banned nearly all procedures.
Lake tried to moderate her position on abortion toward the end of the race, but for many voters, the flip-flop felt insincere. When you combine a massive cash disadvantage with a controversial platform, it’s a tough hill to climb in a purple state.
💡 You might also like: Why Trump's West Point Speech Still Matters Years Later
What this means for Arizona's future
Arizona isn't the "red" state it used to be. It's not "blue" either. It's a weird, independent-minded "purple" that defies easy categorization. The fact that the state chose a Republican president and a Democratic senator in the same breath proves that voters there are looking at individuals, not just party labels.
If you are following Arizona politics to see what happens next, keep an eye on these factors:
- The Latino Vote: Gallego won about 60% of Hispanic voters, a crucial demographic that continues to trend more toward the center but stayed with the Democrat in this specific Senate matchup.
- Maricopa County: This is where the majority of the state lives. If a Republican can't win the Phoenix suburbs by a significant margin, they can't win the state.
- The "Lake Model": Other GOP candidates are currently debating whether Lake's firebrand style is the way of the future or a cautionary tale for 2026 and beyond.
The reality of the situation is clear: Ruben Gallego is Arizona's Senator. Kari Lake has moved on to a federal role and a new home in the Midwest. While the debates over her political career will likely continue for years, the scoreboard for the 2024 Arizona Senate race is final.
To stay informed on Arizona’s shifting political landscape, your best bet is to follow the Arizona Secretary of State’s official election archives for certified data and monitor the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors for updates on voting procedures. Understanding the nuances of ticket-splitting and suburban voter behavior in the Phoenix metro area will give you a much clearer picture of why candidates like Lake have struggled to cross the finish line in recent years.