Honestly, if you’re looking out your window in Nashville or Memphis today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, you’re probably seeing more "blue" than "white." Despite the freezing temperatures nipping at your nose, it isn't actually snowing in most of Tennessee right now.
It’s clear. Cold, but clear.
The current state-wide conditions are a bit of a tease. According to the latest data from the National Weather Service, the temperature is sitting right at a crisp 30°F. But with the wind coming out of the southwest at 6 mph, it feels more like 25°F. You’ve definitely got the "cold" part of the equation, but the sky just isn't cooperating for the snow-lovers yet.
Humidity is hanging around 49%, and the precipitation chance? Basically zero.
The heavy snow is actually coming
Don't put those sleds away just yet, though. While today is a wash for snow, the forecast for later this week looks like a completely different animal.
If you’ve lived in the South for more than five minutes, you know that weather reports can change faster than the mood at a Titans game. Right now, the real "event" is pegged for Saturday, January 24. We are looking at a projected heavy snow storm with a 65% chance of precipitation during the day, jumping up to 75% at night.
We're talking about a high of 31°F and a low of 22°F. That’s the kind of weather that actually sticks.
Before we get to that big storm, there’s a weird "winter soup" happening midweek. Wednesday and Thursday (Jan 21-22) are showing a mix of light rain and snow as temperatures fluctuate between 51°F and 27°F. It's that classic Tennessee "will it or won't it" slush that makes driving on I-40 an absolute nightmare.
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Why Tennessee weather is so weird
You’ve probably wondered why it can be 50 degrees on Thursday and a blizzard on Saturday. Basically, we’re a playground for competing air masses. We get that warm, moist air creeping up from the Gulf of Mexico, which then slams into the frigid Arctic air coming down from the Plains.
When they meet over the Tennessee Valley, things get messy.
- The "Dry Slot" Problem: Often, the cold air arrives, but the moisture has already pulled out to the east. This leaves us with "cold and dry" instead of "snowy."
- The Refreeze: This is the real danger. Even if it doesn't snow much today, Sunday night is expected to drop to 19°F. Any moisture left on the roads from earlier in the week is going to turn into black ice.
- The Elevation Factor: Places like Ober Gatlinburg or the peaks in Unicoi County usually get the goods while the rest of us just get wet. Interestingly, even Ober Gatlinburg is showing "Fair/Clear" skies for today, with only about an inch of new snow expected over the next week.
Road conditions and what to expect
TDOT (Tennessee Department of Transportation) has already been out pre-treating interstates like I-40 and I-75. They use a salt brine—basically a liquefied salt mix—that sticks to the pavement better than rock salt. It’s great for preventing that initial bond of ice to the road.
But here’s the thing: when the temperature drops into the teens, like it's supposed to on Monday and Tuesday nights (14°F), that brine loses its muscle.
If you're planning a trip toward the Smokies or even just commuting through Knoxville, you've gotta watch the bridges. They freeze first. It's a cliché for a reason.
What you should do right now
Since it isn't snowing right this second, you actually have a window to get ready for the mess coming later this week.
- Check your tire pressure. Drastic temperature drops from 40°F to 14°F will make your "low pressure" light pop on.
- Drip the faucets. We are looking at several nights in a row well below freezing.
- Stock the pantry before Friday. If that Saturday "heavy snow storm" holds true, the grocery stores will be a madhouse by Thursday afternoon.
Honestly, enjoy the sun today. It’s 36°F and sunny for the afternoon—perfect for a walk if you bundle up—but keep an eye on Friday night. That’s when the "flurries" turn into a real Tennessee winter.
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Actionable Next Steps:
Check your local county's TDOT SmartWay map for real-time traffic camera feeds if you have to travel tonight. As the temperature drops to 19°F after sunset, any lingering damp spots on secondary roads will likely transition to ice. If you’re in East Tennessee, specifically in high-elevation areas like Johnson or Unicoi counties, keep a kit in your trunk; the "heavy snow" potential for next weekend often arrives early in the mountains.