If you’ve lived in the Puget Sound for more than a week, you know the drill. We see a single flake of snow and suddenly every grocery store within a twenty-mile radius is sold out of kale and bananas. It is a local tradition. But as we move deeper into January 2026, the question on everyone’s mind—usually asked while staring skeptically at a grey, drizzly sky—is whether we are actually going to see a real "Snowpocalypse" or just more of the usual 45-degree mist.
The short answer? Honestly, the window is closing, but February is looking suspicious.
Is it going to snow this year in Seattle?
Predicting snow in this city is basically a fool’s errand because our weather is a delicate balancing act. You need the cold air to slide down from the Fraser River Valley in Canada at the exact same moment a moisture-heavy system rolls in from the Pacific. If they miss each other by six hours, you just get cold rain. If the timing is perfect, you’re digging your Subaru out of a drift.
Right now, we are dealing with a "weak" La Niña. Usually, La Niña means colder and wetter for us. But this year, the signal has been a bit of a dud. We had a decent cold snap earlier in the winter, and the mountains actually got hammered in early January—Snoqualmie Pass saw nearly 30 inches in a single week—but the lowlands (where most of us actually live and drink coffee) have stayed mostly above freezing.
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The La Niña Factor and 2026 Trends
According to the Washington State Climate Office, we’ve got a 75% chance of transitioning back to "neutral" conditions (the "La Nada" phase) by the time we hit the March-May stretch. This is crucial. When La Niña is weak, like it is right now, the weather becomes way more unpredictable. Instead of a consistent "cold and wet" pattern, we get these weird atmospheric swings.
- January: Mostly a wash for snow. We’ve seen wetter-than-average conditions, but it’s been too warm.
- February: This is the wildcard. Historical data shows that some of our biggest Seattle snow events happen in February (remember 2019 and 2021?). The Climate Prediction Center is actually leaning toward a "slight tilt" for below-normal temperatures in late winter.
- March: Don't rule out the "Spring Surprise." While rare, we’ve seen trace amounts of snow as late as April, though it never sticks.
What the Experts are Watching
If you follow local meteorologists like Cliff Mass or the folks at the National Weather Service in North Seattle, you know they aren't looking at "yearly" forecasts. They’re looking at the jet stream.
For is it going to snow this year in Seattle, we need a high-pressure "block" to form over the Gulf of Alaska. This acts like a giant atmospheric wall, forcing the cold Arctic air south into the Puget Sound. Without that block, the Pacific Ocean—which is currently still quite warm—just keeps pumping mild, 48-degree air into our living rooms.
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One interesting thing about the 2025-2026 winter season is how the mountain snowpack is behaving. As of mid-January, Snoqualmie Pass has a base depth of about 36 inches. That’s okay, but it’s not record-breaking. The concern for skiers is that while it’s been snowing up high, the "rain-on-snow" events have been frequent. This happens when a warm "Pineapple Express" system hits right after a cold snap, melting the fresh powder and turning the mountains into a slushy mess.
Seattle Snow by the Numbers
Let's be real: Seattle only averages about 6.3 inches of snow per year. Most of that usually comes in one or two "events" rather than a consistent winter blanket.
- The Record: 67.5 inches back in the winter of 1968-69. We aren't hitting that this year.
- The Reality: We often go entire winters with only a "trace" amount (less than 0.1 inches).
- The 2026 Outlook: Most models are currently suggesting we might finish the season with below-average lowland snow, likely landing in that 2-4 inch range, unless February delivers a specific Arctic blast.
Why it Feels Like it Never Snows Anymore
You aren't imagining it. While we still get big hits occasionally, the trend since the 1990s has been toward "mushier" winters. Climate change doesn't mean it never snows; it just means the "snow line" is moving up the mountains. Places like North Bend might get six inches while downtown Seattle just gets a very cold, depressing slush.
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Also, the "urban heat island" effect is real. All the concrete and traffic in Seattle keeps the city a few degrees warmer than the surrounding suburbs. If you live in Shoreline or Edmonds, you might see two inches, while someone in Queen Anne sees nothing but wet sidewalks.
Preparing for the "Late" Blast
Since February is statistically our most likely "big snow" month during weak La Niña years, you shouldn't put the shovel away just yet. If you haven't already, check your outdoor faucets. Those are the first things to go when we get a sudden freeze without the snow to insulate them.
Basically, keep an eye on the "Week 3-4" outlooks from NOAA. They’re starting to show some cold air potential for the second week of February. It’s not a guarantee—nothing in PNW weather is—but it’s the most promising lead we’ve had all season.
Next Steps for Seattleites:
Check your car's tire pressure today. Cold snaps cause the air in your tires to contract, and the last thing you want is a "low pressure" light blinking when you're trying to navigate a slushy I-5. Also, keep your gas tank at least half full; if you do get stuck in a "surprise" Seattle traffic jam caused by a half-inch of snow, you'll want the heater running. Finally, if you're a gardener, wait until late March to prune anything that looks "dead" from the cold—those dead leaves actually protect the plant's core from late-season frosts.