If you woke up this morning and looked out at that gray, heavy Chicago sky, you’re probably asking the same thing as everyone else waiting for the ‘L’: is it going to rain in Chicago Illinois today, or are we looking at something else?
The short answer? No rain. Not exactly.
The long answer involves a lot of wind, a massive temperature drop, and a "clipper" system that is currently diving out of Canada like an uninvited guest.
The messy reality of a Chicago January
Honestly, it’s too cold for rain. After that weirdly intense snow squall we had yesterday—which, by the way, dropped visibilities to basically zero at O'Hare in a matter of minutes—the atmosphere has settled into a deep freeze.
Today, Thursday, January 15, 2026, the high is struggling to hit 27°F. When the air is that cold, the clouds don't produce rain; they produce those tiny, dry snowflakes that just sort of swirl around your face and make your eyes water.
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You’ve probably noticed the wind already. It's coming from the west at about 16 to 18 mph, with gusts hitting 30 mph. This is "Lake Effect" territory, but the flow is mostly pushing the heavy stuff toward Michigan and Indiana. For those of us in the Loop or out in the suburbs like Arlington Heights, we’re mostly seeing a lot of clouds and maybe a few stray flurries during the day.
Why the forecast feels like a lie
Sometimes you check your phone and see a 10% or 25% chance of precipitation and think, "Okay, I need an umbrella."
Don't bother.
In Chicago, when the temperature is hovering in the 20s, a 25% chance of "precipitation" almost always means snow showers. Specifically, the National Weather Service is tracking a clipper system. These are fast-moving, moisture-starved storms. They don't bring the big, heavy, wet snow you can build a snowman with. They bring the "nuisance" snow.
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- Morning: Mostly cloudy and blustery. It feels like 1°F out there right now.
- Afternoon: Clouds might break for a second, but don't get your hopes up.
- Tonight: This is when things get slightly more active. The chance of snow bumps up to 25% after midnight.
If you’re driving on I-90 or the Dan Ryan later tonight, watch out for "flash freeze" spots. Even though it isn't raining, the moisture from yesterday's melt or any light flurries tonight can turn into black ice faster than you can say "O'Hare delay."
Is it going to rain in Chicago Illinois today or tonight?
Let's talk about the science of why rain is basically impossible today. To get rain, you need a "warm nose" of air somewhere in the atmosphere that stays above freezing. Right now, there is no warm nose. It’s cold all the way up.
Instead of rain, we are looking at lake-enhanced snow showers starting late tonight and carrying into Friday.
The National Weather Service in Romeoville has been pretty clear about this: the pattern is cold and dry for the continent, but the Great Lakes are still relatively "warm" compared to the arctic air. When that cold air blows over Lake Michigan, it picks up moisture. But because the air temperature in the city is so low, that moisture falls as snow, not rain.
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What to expect if you're heading out
If you're heading to a Bulls game or just grabbing dinner in West Loop, leave the rain jacket at home. You need the heavy parka.
The wind chill is the real story today. Even if it stays "dry," the wind is cutting through everything. We’re coming off a winter that has been surprisingly variable—thanks to the fading La Niña—and today is a reminder that January in Illinois doesn't play around.
The weekend outlook: More of the same?
If you're hoping for a warmup, you're going to have to wait. Friday actually looks snowier than today. While today is mostly just gray and cold, Friday has a much higher chance of actual accumulation.
We’re looking at a broad area of snow showers expected to drop about 1 to 3 inches across the metro area by Friday night. It's not a blizzard, but it’s enough to make the Friday evening commute a total nightmare.
Actionable steps for Chicagoans today
- Ditch the umbrella: It will just break in the 30 mph gusts, and there’s no rain to stop anyway.
- Layers are everything: With a wind chill near zero, exposed skin is going to hurt within 15 minutes.
- Check the "Salt Status": If you’re a homeowner, don't bother salting your walk yet. Wait until the flurries start tonight or tomorrow morning so the salt doesn't just blow away in the wind.
- Watch the "Clipper": Keep an eye on the radar around 10:00 PM tonight. That’s when the leading edge of the next snow system starts poking into the northern suburbs.
Basically, stay warm and keep your eyes on the road. The rain is staying far to our south and east today, leaving us with nothing but the classic Chicago "Big Gray."