If you look at a political map of the United States, Illinois usually stares back at you in a solid, unyielding shade of blue. It’s the Democratic anchor of the Midwest, a massive electoral powerhouse that has reliably sent its votes to the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1992. But if you actually drive through the state—past the gleaming skyline of Chicago and out into the sprawling cornfields of the 618 area code—the "blue" label starts to feel a bit more complicated.
So, is Illinois a blue or red state? On paper, it's deep blue. In reality, it’s a political tug-of-war between one of the world's most influential cities and a vast, conservative rural landscape. The state is a "trifecta" for Democrats, meaning they control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature. Yet, if you look at a county-by-county map, the state is a sea of red with a few bright blue islands.
The Chicago Factor: Why the Blue Map Wins
The reason Illinois stays blue is simple: people. Specifically, where they live. Roughly 40% of the entire state's population lives in Cook County. When you add in the "collar counties" like DuPage, Lake, and Will, you’re looking at the vast majority of the state's voters.
For decades, the Chicago suburbs were the home of the "moderate Republican." Think of people who wanted lower taxes but weren't necessarily interested in the cultural battles of the far right. That’s changed. Over the last ten years, the suburbs have trended sharply Democratic. In the 2024 presidential election, while some "blue strongholds" like New York and California saw massive shifts toward the GOP, Illinois stayed firmly in the Democratic column, though Kamala Harris won by about 11 points—a smaller margin than Joe Biden’s 17-point victory in 2020.
Voter registration and power:
- Registered Democrats: Roughly 3.04 million (as of late 2025).
- Registered Republicans: Roughly 2.22 million.
- The Unaffiliated: Over 2.8 million voters don't officially claim a party.
The sheer volume of voters in the northeast corner of the state effectively "drowns out" the voting power of the other 90-plus counties. It’s a source of constant frustration for downstate residents, some of whom have gone so far as to propose "New Illinois"—a movement to separate the rest of the state from Chicago entirely.
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The Red Core: Life Outside the Windy City
If you exit the I-55 corridor and head south of I-80, the political atmosphere shifts instantly. Downstate Illinois is culturally more aligned with the "Upper South" or the "Bible Belt" than with the cosmopolitan vibes of the Loop.
In counties like Effingham, Wayne, or Saline, Donald Trump and other Republican candidates often pull 70% or even 80% of the vote. These areas are defined by agriculture, manufacturing, and traditional values. For these voters, the policies coming out of Springfield—like the Pretrial Fairness Act (which ended cash bail) or strict gun control measures—feel like they were written for Chicago and forced upon everyone else.
The General Assembly Balance (January 2026)
Currently, the Illinois General Assembly reflects this divide but highlights the Democratic dominance:
- The State House: Democrats hold a supermajority with 78 seats to the Republicans' 40.
- The State Senate: It’s a 40-19 split in favor of the Democrats.
Because of this lopsided representation, Republicans in Illinois often find themselves in a "permanent minority" status, unable to block legislation without help from moderate Democrats—a group that is shrinking as the party becomes more progressive.
Is Illinois Shifting? Looking at the 2024 and 2026 Trends
Nothing in politics is permanent. While Illinois is a blue state, the 2024 election results showed some interesting cracks in the armor. In Cook County, Democratic turnout dipped. Kamala Harris received nearly 300,000 fewer votes in Cook County than Biden did in 2020. Meanwhile, Donald Trump actually slightly improved his raw vote totals in Chicago and the surrounding areas.
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Does this mean Illinois is turning purple? Not exactly.
It’s more of a "correction." The state remains a high-tax, high-regulation environment, which has led to significant out-migration. According to the Illinois Policy Institute, many of those leaving are middle-class families who might lean more conservative or moderate. When those voters leave, the remaining electorate often becomes more polarized.
Not Every City is Blue
We often talk about the "urban-rural" divide, but Illinois has some nuances here too. While Chicago is the Democratic engine, other urban centers vary:
- Deep Blue: Rockford, Peoria, and Champaign-Urbana (thanks to the University of Illinois).
- Purple/Leaning Red: Areas around the Quad Cities and parts of the Metro East (near St. Louis) have become much more competitive for Republicans lately.
What Most People Get Wrong About Illinois Politics
People think Illinois has always been a blue state. That’s a myth.
Historically, Illinois was a legendary swing state. In the 20th century, it voted for the winner of almost every presidential election. It gave us Ronald Reagan (born in Tampico) and was a Republican stronghold for much of the late 1800s. The shift to a "reliable blue" state only really solidified in the 1990s as the GOP moved further right on social issues and the Chicago suburbs moved left.
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Also, it’s worth noting that Illinois still elects Republican governors occasionally. Bruce Rauner served from 2015 to 2019. Before him, moderate Republicans like Jim Edgar and George Ryan held the office. The path for a Republican to win statewide in Illinois exists, but it requires a "perfect storm": a moderate, wealthy candidate who can win over suburban moms and stay quiet on divisive social issues.
Actionable Insights: Navigating the Illinois Political Landscape
If you’re looking to understand or engage with Illinois politics, keep these "ground truths" in mind:
- Watch the Collar Counties: If you want to know which way the state is trending, don't look at Chicago or rural Wayne County. Look at DuPage and Will counties. They are the true bellwethers of whether the Democratic grip is tightening or slipping.
- Follow the Money: Illinois has some of the most "expensive" politics in the country. With no contribution limits in many cases and a history of wealthy self-funders (like Governor J.B. Pritzker), local races can see millions of dollars in spending.
- The Redistricting Power: In Illinois, the party in power controls the map-making process every ten years. This has allowed Democrats to draw congressional and state districts that maximize their seats, making it very difficult for Republicans to regain the majority even if they have a good year.
- Check Local Non-Partisan Races: Often, the "red vs. blue" labels disappear in local school board or municipal elections. This is where the real policy debates regarding property taxes and education are happening right now.
Illinois is a blue state by the numbers, but a purple state by the heart. It’s a place where the legislative power of a global city meets the fierce independence of the American heartland. Understanding that friction is the only way to truly understand the Land of Lincoln.
To get a better sense of how your specific area leans, you should look up your current representative in the Illinois General Assembly. You can find them by entering your address on the Illinois State Board of Elections website. Following local city council meetings or joining a non-partisan civic group can also give you a clearer picture of the issues that actually drive your neighbors to the polls, regardless of whether the state "looks blue" on the nightly news.