It’s been ten years since the world felt like it shifted on its axis with the Obergefell v. Hodges decision. For a lot of folks, that was the end of the conversation. Done. Settled. But then Roe v. Wade fell in 2022, and suddenly, everyone’s looking at the Supreme Court with a lot of side-eye. You’ve probably seen the headlines or the panicked TikToks asking the same big question: is gay marriage being overturned right now?
The short answer? No. Not today, and not yesterday. In fact, as recently as November 2025, the Supreme Court flat-out refused to take up a case that could have been the "beginning of the end" for marriage equality. But if you’re looking for a simple "everything is fine," you’re not going to get it here. Law is messy. Politics is messier.
Honestly, the landscape is a mix of rock-solid federal protection and some very vocal people trying to chip away at the edges. Let’s break down what’s actually happening in the halls of the Supreme Court and why the "Respect for Marriage Act" is basically a legal safety net you need to know about.
The Kim Davis Case and the 2025 Refusal
You remember Kim Davis, right? The Kentucky clerk who went to jail because she wouldn't issue licenses to same-sex couples back in 2015? She’s been in the news again. Her lawyers have been trying to get her case back in front of the Supreme Court for years, basically begging the justices to admit they made a mistake with Obergefell.
On November 10, 2025, the Supreme Court officially declined to hear her appeal.
This was a huge deal. If the Court wanted to overturn gay marriage, this was their open door. They walked past it. Even with a 6-3 conservative supermajority, they didn't take the bait. Justice Amy Coney Barrett has even suggested in the past that marriage is "different" from abortion because hundreds of thousands of people have built lives, families, and legal contracts around the right to marry. In legal speak, they call this "reliance interests." Basically: you can’t just pull the rug out from under millions of families without causing total chaos.
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Why People Are Still Worried
If the Court said "no thanks" to overturning it, why is the internet still convinced that is gay marriage being overturned is a "when" and not an "if"?
It mostly comes down to Justice Clarence Thomas. When Roe was overturned in the Dobbs decision, Thomas wrote a concurring opinion that sent shockwaves through the country. He explicitly said the Court should "reconsider" other rulings based on "substantive due process." He name-dropped Griswold (contraception), Lawrence (same-sex intimacy), and yes, Obergefell (marriage).
But here is the thing: Thomas was alone.
None of the other conservative justices—not Alito, not Gorsuch, not Kavanaugh—joined that specific part of his opinion. Justice Samuel Alito actually went out of his way to write that the Dobbs ruling was about abortion and only abortion. He’s criticized Obergefell plenty, sure, but recently he’s indicated he isn't exactly pushing to delete it from the books.
The "Respect for Marriage Act" (The Backup Plan)
Even if the Supreme Court did a complete 180 and decided to overturn Obergefell in 2026 or 2027, the world wouldn't go back to 2014.
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In late 2022, President Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act. This was a proactive strike. It doesn't force every state to issue marriage licenses if the Supreme Court ever strikes down the national right, but it does force every state to recognize marriages performed in other states.
Think of it like this:
If you live in a state that theoretically bans gay marriage in a post-Obergefell world, you could drive one state over, get married, and your home state would legally have to treat you as a married couple for taxes, benefits, and everything else. It also guarantees federal recognition. Social Security benefits? Veterans’ benefits? They stay put.
The Current Battle: Religious Exemptions
The real fight isn't about whether you can get a marriage license; it’s about what happens after you get one.
We’re seeing a massive wave of cases focused on "religious freedom." Cases like 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis (2023) already ruled that certain businesses, like website designers, can’t be forced to create custom work for same-sex weddings if it violates their beliefs.
In June 2025, the Court ruled in Mahmoud v. Taylor that parents in Maryland could potentially opt their kids out of curriculum involving LGBTQ-inclusive books. We aren't seeing a total ban on marriage; we’re seeing a shift toward allowing people to "opt out" of participating in or acknowledging those marriages in certain public and private spaces.
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States are Taking Matters Into Their Own Hands
While the federal government is gridlocked, states are moving fast. In the November 2025 elections, voters in California, Colorado, and Hawaii all moved to officially scrub old "zombie" bans on same-sex marriage from their state constitutions.
These were bans that had been "dormant" since 2015. By removing them, these states ensured that even if the Supreme Court disappeared tomorrow, marriage equality is locked into their state law.
On the flip side, you’ve got states like Tennessee and West Virginia passing laws that test the limits of LGBTQ protections, particularly around gender-affirming care and trans athletes. The legal "vibe" is definitely more hostile in some regions, but the core right to marry remains legally standing across all 50 states.
Actionable Insights for 2026
If you’re worried about the future of your marriage or a loved one’s, here is the reality:
- Check your state constitution. Look up if your state has a "trigger law" or a dormant ban on same-sex marriage. If they do, supporting local ballot initiatives to repeal them is the most direct way to protect your rights.
- Estate Planning is non-negotiable. Regardless of what the Supreme Court does, having a rock-solid will, power of attorney, and healthcare proxy is the best way to ensure your partner is protected. Laws can change, but private legal contracts are much harder to break.
- Keep an eye on "Religious Freedom" bills. This is where the actual movement is happening. Pay attention to your state legislature’s sessions—this is where "conscience clauses" that allow discrimination are being debated.
The question of is gay marriage being overturned isn't going away, but the legal "fortress" around it is much stronger than it was five years ago. Between the Respect for Marriage Act and the Supreme Court’s recent refusal to hear challenges, the right to marry is stable for the foreseeable future.
To stay fully protected, ensure your legal documents (wills, beneficiaries, and titles) are updated to reflect your current marital status. This creates a secondary layer of private legal protection that operates independently of Supreme Court rulings. You should also verify if your state of residence has a constitutional amendment protecting marriage, as many states are currently moving to solidify these rights at the local level.