If you’ve felt like everyone around you has a "gnarly cold" lately, you aren't imagining things. January 2026 is turning out to be a bit of a marathon for our immune systems. Between the holiday travel hangover and the usual winter huddle, the big question is: is COVID back on the rise, or is it just the flu stealing the spotlight this time?
The short answer? It’s complicated.
Honestly, we’re seeing a split-screen reality right now. On one hand, the CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System shows that SARS-CoV-2 concentrations jumped by about 41% during the first week of January. On the other hand, the actual number of people landing in the hospital is still way lower than those dark winters of 2021 or 2022. It’s a "high" level of virus in the water, but a "moderate" level of chaos in the ER.
The New Players: Nimbus, Stratus, and BA.3.2
We aren't dealing with the original Omicron anymore. The virus has spent the last year basically reinventing itself. Experts like Dr. T. Ryan Gregory have been tracking a soup of subvariants with nicknames that sound more like weather patterns than diseases.
Specifically, the NB.1.8.1 variant (nicknamed "Nimbus") and XFG ("Stratus") are the two heavy hitters competing for dominance this month. They are incredibly good at dodging the immunity you got from that infection you had last summer.
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- Nimbus (NB.1.8.1): This one moved fast, jumping from 2% to over 10% of global cases in just a few weeks.
- Stratus (XFG): Currently spreading even faster in parts of Europe and Canada, though it’s still duking it out with Nimbus in the States.
- BA.3.2: This is the "divergent" lineage the CDC is keeping a close eye on because it looks just different enough to potentially cause a longer tail to this winter surge.
The good news? None of these seem to be "meaner." They aren't necessarily causing more severe lung issues or lower oxygen levels in healthy people. They just spread like wildfire.
Is COVID Back on the Rise Compared to the Flu?
If you feel like crap right now, there is a statistically high chance it’s actually the flu.
This winter, influenza is absolutely towering over COVID-19 in terms of raw numbers. In the first week of January, flu test positivity was sitting around 25%, while COVID was only at 5%. We’re seeing a new strain called subclade K (an H3N2 variant) that is hitting people pretty hard.
But here is the catch with the "is COVID back on the rise" data: COVID doesn't follow the same rules as the flu. The flu usually peaks in late December and then drops off a cliff. COVID is "stickier." Wastewater data suggests we haven't even hit the peak of this current surge yet. While the flu might be starting to plateau, COVID levels are still climbing in the Midwest and Northeast.
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Regional Hotspots in January 2026
It isn't hitting everyone the same way. If you’re in California, things are relatively quiet. But if you’re in the Great Lakes region, you’re in the thick of it.
- Midwest & Northeast: These are the primary hotspots right now. Test positivity in "Health Region 5" (Great Lakes) is more than triple what it is on the West Coast.
- The "Growing" States: According to the latest CDC estimates, infections are actively growing in about 12 states, including Florida, Washington, and Maryland.
- The "Declining" States: Interestingly, 28 states are already seeing a downward trend. It’s a patchwork map.
The 2026 Symptom Checklist
The "classic" COVID symptoms have shifted again. Remember when everyone lost their sense of taste? That’s pretty rare now.
Most people catching the Nimbus or Stratus variants this month are reporting a severe, sharp sore throat as the first sign. It feels less like a scratch and more like you swallowed glass. This is usually followed by heavy congestion and a fatigue that feels like you’ve been hit by a truck.
Distinguishing it from the flu is tough without a test. Generally, flu hits you like a light switch—fine at 10:00 AM, high fever and body aches by noon. COVID tends to creep in a bit slower over a few days.
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Why the "Rise" Feels Different This Time
We’ve hit a point of "hybrid immunity." Between vaccines and the fact that most people have had COVID at least once or twice, our bodies aren't starting from scratch.
The CDC projected about 10,300 hospital admissions per week for mid-January. That sounds like a lot, but it’s actually a very stable number compared to previous years. The risk is no longer about the "average" person; it’s about the 1 in 100 adults over age 65 who still face a high risk of hospitalization when the virus levels in the community spike.
Vaccine uptake for the 2025-2026 formula has been lower than expected—only about 15% of adults have grabbed the latest shot. That’s a gap the virus is happy to fill.
Actionable Steps for the Current Surge
If you’re trying to navigate this "mini-wave" without getting sidelined for a week, here is the current expert consensus on what actually works:
- Trust the Wastewater, Not the Case Counts: Since nobody reports home tests anymore, official case numbers are basically useless. Check your local wastewater data (like Biobot or WastewaterSCAN) to see if the virus is actually peaking in your specific city.
- The "Day 3" Rule for Testing: With these newer Omicron descendants, people often test negative on Day 1 of symptoms. If you feel sick, don't assume you're clear because of one negative rapid test. Test again on Day 3 or Day 4.
- Upgrade Your Mask for Travel: If you’re heading to the airport, those blue surgical masks are mostly decorative at this point. With variants as contagious as Nimbus, you really need an N95 or KN95 to make a difference in a crowded terminal.
- Antivirals Still Work: Paxlovid and other treatments are still effective against these new variants. If you are high-risk, don't wait. The earlier you start, the better the outcome.
- Ventilation is Underrated: If you’re hosting people, just cracking a window or running a HEPA filter can drop the viral load in a room significantly. It’s low-tech but highly effective.
We are essentially in a cycle of "ripples" rather than "tsunamis." COVID is back on the rise in a literal sense, but it’s becoming a predictable part of the winter respiratory season rather than a total societal shutdown. Stay aware of your local levels, keep a few tests in the drawer, and don't ignore that "scratchy throat."