The hype surrounding Boulder is loud. It’s always loud. Ever since Deion "Coach Prime" Sanders touched down at Folsom Field, the question of is Colorado going to a bowl game has been the central nervous system of college football discourse. People either want to see them fail spectacularly or witness a historic turnaround. There is no middle ground.
But let’s look at the math. To get to a bowl game, you need six wins. That’s the magic number. Last season, the Buffaloes started with a bang, beating TCU and Nebraska, making everyone believe a postseason berth was a lock. Then the wheels fell off. They finished 4-8. Close, but no cigar. Now, in the 2025-2026 cycle, the stakes are higher, the roster is deeper, and the Big 12 is a whole different animal than the Pac-12 they left behind.
The Path to Six Wins in the Big 12
The Big 12 is a grind. It’s a league where parity is the rule, not the exception. You don’t have the top-heavy dominance of the SEC, but you also don't have many "easy" Saturdays. For Colorado, the schedule is the ultimate judge and jury.
Take a look at the home slate. Playing at altitude helps. It really does. Opponents gas out in the fourth quarter, and if Shedeur Sanders is clicking with Travis Hunter, that high-octane offense becomes a nightmare to defend when you can’t catch your breath. To answer is Colorado going to a bowl game, you have to look at their "swing games." These are the matchups against mid-tier Big 12 teams like UCF, Arizona, or West Virginia. If they split those, they’re in trouble. If they sweep them, they’re looking at a decent December destination.
Honestly, the offensive line is the "X factor." You can have the best quarterback in the country—and many scouts argue Shedeur is exactly that—but if he’s on his back five times a game, the win column won't grow. Last year, he was the most sacked QB in the FBS. That's a stat that kills bowl dreams. The coaching staff brought in a haul of portal talent specifically to fix this. Jordan Seaton and the new-look front have to hold. If they do, six wins isn't just a goal; it's a floor.
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Why Everyone is Obsessed with the Buffs' Postseason
Money. Visibility. Recruiting.
A bowl game is more than just a trophy and some swag bags for the players. It’s fifteen extra practices. For a program rebuilding its culture from the ground up, those extra weeks in December are gold. It's time for the younger guys to develop. It's time for Coach Prime to showcase the program on a national stage when there aren't fifteen other games happening simultaneously.
There's also the "Prime Effect." TV networks love Colorado. They draw ratings. Even a mediocre Colorado team is a more attractive bowl candidate for organizers than a 9-win team with a small fanbase. The bowl scouts are watching. They want the Buffaloes in the Liberty Bowl, the Alamo Bowl, or even a Pop-Tarts Bowl appearance because they know the "Prime" brand sells tickets and booze.
The Travis Hunter Variable
You can’t talk about Colorado’s bowl chances without mentioning Travis Hunter. The man is a freak of nature. Playing 100+ snaps a game on both sides of the ball is something we haven't seen in the modern era. His health is the lynchpin. If Hunter stays healthy, Colorado has a playmaker who can take over a game in all three phases. If he goes down, the margin for error evaporates.
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The defense, led by Robert Livingston, has shifted toward a more NFL-style scheme. They’re trying to prevent the big plays that haunted them against Stanford and Washington State last year. It's about efficiency. Can they get off the field on third down? If the defense moves from "terrible" to "average," the offense is explosive enough to carry them to seven or eight wins easily.
Analyzing the 2025 Schedule Hurdles
Let's get specific. Looking at the back half of the schedule is usually where the "is Colorado going to a bowl game" question gets answered. November in the Big 12 can be brutal. You might be playing in a snowstorm in Ames, Iowa, or dealing with the "Bounce House" in Orlando.
- The Non-Conference Start: Usually, Colorado needs to go 2-1 or 3-0 here. If they drop an early game to a rival like Nebraska or Colorado State, the pressure becomes suffocating.
- The Mid-Season Grunt: This is where depth matters. In the past, the Buffs have looked tired by October. This year, the rotation is deeper.
- The Finale: Often, a team needs that one last win in the final week to clinch eligibility. If it comes down to a Friday night game against a tough Utah team, hearts will be in mouths in Boulder.
Critics love to point out that Colorado's defense was statistically near the bottom of the barrel last year. That’s a fair point. You don't win games in a tough conference by just outscoring people; eventually, you have to get a stop. The additions via the transfer portal—guys like Samuel Okunlola and BJ Green—are supposed to fix the pass rush. No pass rush, no bowl game. It’s that simple.
The Verdict on Postseason Eligibility
So, is it happening?
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The consensus among Big 12 insiders and Vegas oddsmakers is that Colorado is right on the bubble. Most sportsbooks have their win total hovering around 5.5 or 6.5. That is the definition of a "swing" season.
Success depends on discipline. Last year, penalties and clock management were... let's call them "inconsistent." Coach Prime has been vocal about tightening things up. If they play clean football, the talent is there. Shedeur Sanders is a projected top-five NFL draft pick for a reason. He has the poise. He has the arm. He just needs two seconds of a clean pocket.
Actionable Steps for Fans and Analysts
To accurately track if Colorado is headed for a bowl, keep your eyes on these specific metrics over the next few weeks:
- Sack Rate Allowed: If this number stays below two per game, the Buffs will likely win 7+ games.
- Turnover Margin: Colorado's defense needs to create short fields for the offense. Watch the interception count for the secondary.
- Red Zone Efficiency: They can move the ball, but they have to finish drives with six points, not three.
- Injury Reports: Specifically watch the offensive line. They lack the depth of a Georgia or an Ohio State, so the starters need to stay upright.
Check the official Big 12 standings weekly, but pay closer attention to the "wins against common opponents" tiebreakers. If Colorado can steal a win against a ranked opponent like Oklahoma State or Kansas, they essentially punch their ticket early.
The path is narrow but visible. For the first time in a long time, the question isn't whether Colorado is relevant—it's whether their play on the field can finally match the noise coming out of the tunnel.
Next Steps for Following the Buffaloes:
Monitor the NCAA "Count to Six" trackers usually updated after Week 8. Focus on the defensive line’s "Pro Football Focus" (PFF) grades following conference openers to see if the portal additions are actually winning their 1-on-1 battles. If the pass rush win rate is above 20%, start booking your travel for late December.