If you walked into a bar in Colorado Springs twenty years ago and suggested the state would soon be a Democratic stronghold, you’d probably have been laughed out of the room. Back then, Colorado was the heart of the "Rocky Mountain Republican" identity. But things change fast. Nowadays, everyone is asking: is colorado a red or blue state, and the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at a map of land or a map of people.
Honestly, it’s blue. Deeply, unmistakably blue at the top of the ticket.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Colorado by about 11 points. While that was a slight dip from Joe Biden’s 13.5-point margin in 2020, it still firmly placed the state in the "Safe Democratic" column. To put that in perspective, Colorado voted to the left of New Jersey in 2024. That is a wild statistic when you consider that from 1968 to 2004, the state went Republican in every single presidential election except for Bill Clinton’s 1992 win.
The Death of the Swing State Label
For a long time, Colorado was the ultimate "purple" prize. It was the land of split tickets and narrow margins. You've probably heard political junkies talk about the "Blue Wall," but Colorado was more of a "Purple Hedge." Not anymore.
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The transition wasn't a fluke. It was a demographic tidal wave.
People are moving here in droves, and they aren't bringing GOP voter registrations with them. We’re talking about college-educated professionals from California, Washington, and Illinois settling in the Front Range. Cities like Denver, Boulder, and Fort Collins have become massive liberal anchors that the rest of the state simply cannot outvote.
But here is the catch. If you drive two hours in almost any direction away from I-25, you are back in "Red Colorado." The Eastern Plains and the Western Slope—outside of resort towns like Aspen or Telluride—remain deep crimson. In 2024, Donald Trump actually flipped Pueblo County back to the Republican column, and he improved his margins in several rural areas. So, while the state's electoral votes are blue, the state's geography is still very much a tug-of-war.
Why the GOP is Struggling in the High Country
It isn't just that Democrats are moving in. It’s that the Colorado Republican Party has been going through a bit of an identity crisis. Under recent leadership, the state GOP has leaned heavily into "MAGA" aesthetics and hard-right cultural issues.
In a state where nearly 50% of voters are registered as unaffiliated, that's a risky bet.
Data from the Colorado Secretary of State shows that as of late 2025, unaffiliated voters are now the largest "party" in the state. These voters tend to be socially liberal but fiscally pragmatic. When the GOP runs candidates who focus on election integrity or strict social bans, they tend to lose the suburbs of Douglas and Arapahoe counties. And in Colorado, if you lose the suburbs, you lose the state.
The Current Power Structure (2026)
As we head into the 2026 midterm cycle, the Democratic grip on the state is practically a vise.
- The Governor: Jared Polis (D) is finishing a term where he successfully branded himself as a "libertarian-leaning" Democrat, making it very hard for Republicans to paint him as a radical.
- The Legislature: Democrats hold a "supermajority" in the State House and a commanding lead in the State Senate.
- The Bench: Every major statewide office—Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer—is held by a Democrat.
The "Colorado Model" and the Future
Back in the early 2000s, a group of wealthy donors known as the "Four Horsemen" (including Tim Gill and Pat Stryker) executed a plan to flip the state. They funded infrastructure, local news outlets, and grassroots organizing. It worked so well that political scientists now call it "The Colorado Model."
But don't assume the GOP is dead here. The 2024 results showed some cracks in the blue ceiling. The Republican flip of the 8th Congressional District (a heavily contested seat in the northern suburbs) proves that when the GOP runs moderate, "kitchen table" candidates like Gabe Evans, they can still win.
So, is colorado a red or blue state? It's a blue state with a red heart and a very large, unpredictable independent brain.
Actionable Insights for Following Colorado Politics
If you're trying to figure out which way the wind is blowing in the Centennial State, don't look at Denver. Look at these three things instead:
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- Douglas County Margins: This used to be a Republican fortress. If the GOP margin here stays under 5%, they cannot win statewide.
- The Unaffiliated Vote: Watch the primary participation. Since unaffiliated voters can choose which primary to vote in, their level of engagement in the Republican vs. Democratic primary tells you which party is "winning" the center.
- Water and Land Use: These are the "hidden" political issues. In Colorado, a candidate's stance on Western Slope water rights often matters more than their stance on national culture wars.
Keep an eye on the 2026 Gubernatorial race. With Jared Polis term-limited, the field is wide open. If Republicans can find a candidate who appeals to those suburban independents, they might finally make Colorado "purple" again. If they don't, the state's transition to a "West Coast Blue" reality will be complete.