People ask it all the time. "Is Chicago a blue state?" It’s a bit of a trick question, honestly. Chicago is a city, not a state, but the way it dominates the political landscape of Illinois makes the distinction feel almost irrelevant to anyone living outside the 312 area code. If you look at a map of Illinois by county after any major election, you’ll see a literal sea of red—vast swaths of rural farmland and downstate towns that lean heavily Republican. Then you see that one dense, dark blue thumbprint in the northeast corner. That’s Chicago.
Because the population is so concentrated in the Windy City and its surrounding "collar counties," Chicago effectively decides how the entire state of Illinois functions. It's the engine. It's the vote driver. It's why Illinois has been a Democratic stronghold in presidential elections since 1992.
Understanding the "Blue State" Label in Illinois
To answer whether Chicago makes Illinois a blue state, you have to look at the numbers. They don't lie. Cook County, which houses Chicago, has over 5 million residents. To put that in perspective, the entire state of Illinois has about 12.5 million people. When you add in the suburban counties like DuPage, Lake, and Will—which have trended increasingly blue over the last decade—you have a voting bloc that is nearly impossible for Republicans to overcome in statewide races.
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It wasn't always this way.
Believe it or not, Illinois used to be a bellwether. In the mid-20th century, as goes Illinois, so went the nation. But the "Blue Wall" solidified here because of the sheer density of Chicago. It’s a phenomenon political scientists often call the "Urban-Rural Divide." While the southern tip of the state, places like Cairo or Effingham, might feel more like Kentucky or Missouri, their political influence is diluted by the massive turnout in neighborhoods like Lincoln Park, Austin, and Bridgeport.
The Power of the Chicago Machine
You can't talk about Chicago politics without mentioning the "Machine." This isn't some conspiracy theory; it’s the historical reality of the Cook County Democratic Party. For decades, under mayors like Richard J. Daley and later his son Richard M. Daley, the party controlled everything from trash pickup to judicial appointments.
While the "Machine" in its old-school, patronage-heavy form has weakened, the infrastructure remains. The Democratic Party in Chicago is exceptionally good at mobilizing voters. This is why, even if a Republican candidate for Governor wins 90 out of 102 counties in Illinois, they can still lose the election. If you don't win the suburbs and keep the margins close in the city, you’re toast.
Is Chicago a Blue State? The Downstate Perspective
If you ask someone in Springfield or Marion this question, they’ll probably give you a frustrated sigh. To them, it certainly feels like Chicago is the state. There is a persistent, underlying tension in Illinois politics regarding where tax dollars go and who sets the agenda.
Many downstate residents feel that Chicago-centric policies—specifically regarding gun control, reproductive rights, and minimum wage—are forced upon them. There have even been symbolic "separation" movements. Every few years, a handful of downstate counties pass non-binding resolutions to discuss forming a new state. It’s mostly posturing, of course. The legal hurdles to seceding and forming a 51st state are astronomical. Plus, there’s the awkward financial reality: Chicago and its suburbs actually generate the lion's share of the state's tax revenue.
- Tax Revenue: Data from the Southern Illinois University (SIU) Paul Simon Public Policy Institute has shown that the Chicago area generally sends more money to Springfield than it receives back in services.
- Infrastructure: Despite the "Chicago gets everything" narrative, downstate roads and schools are heavily subsidized by the economic output of the city’s financial and tech sectors.
It’s a complicated marriage. They need Chicago’s money; Chicago needs the rest of the state’s resources and geographic cooperation.
Why the "Blue State" Identity is Changing
It’s easy to just say "Chicago is blue" and leave it at that, but the nuances are shifting. The suburbs are the real story. In the 80s and 90s, the "Collar Counties" (DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will) were Republican bastions. They were the home of "Lehigh Valley" style conservatism.
Not anymore.
Educated, professional voters in the suburbs have moved steadily toward the Democratic column. This shift has turned Illinois from a "swing-leaning blue" state into a "solid blue" state. Even if Chicago’s population fluctuates, the suburban drift ensures that the GOP faces an uphill battle. The 2022 gubernatorial election saw JB Pritzker win comfortably, largely because he didn't just win Chicago; he dominated the surrounding areas that used to be competitive.
The Role of Demographics
Chicago’s diversity is a major factor. The city has large Black and Latino populations that historically vote Democratic by wide margins. According to the U.S. Census, Cook County is roughly 23% Black and 26% Hispanic. These communities are deeply invested in the social programs and labor protections championed by the Illinois Democratic Party. When you combine this with a highly educated white urban population, the Republican platform of fiscal austerity and social conservatism often fails to find a foothold.
The Republican Strategy: Is There a Path?
Is it impossible for a Republican to win in this "Blue State"? No, but the path is narrow. It requires a specific type of candidate—usually a moderate who can appeal to suburban families while not alienating the rural base.
Think of someone like Jim Thompson or Jim Edgar. They were "Big Tent" Republicans. In 2014, Bruce Rauner managed to win the governorship by focusing almost entirely on the state’s fiscal mess and the unpopularity of the Democratic incumbent at the time. He played the "outsider" card. However, his tenure was marked by a brutal budget impasse, and he was eventually ousted by Pritzker.
For the GOP to win today, they basically need a perfect storm:
- Low Democratic turnout in Chicago.
- A massive "protest vote" in the suburbs.
- A Republican candidate who avoids "culture war" extremes.
Right now, that’s a tall order. The nationalization of politics means that even local races are often viewed through the lens of the national party, making it harder for Illinois Republicans to distance themselves from the national GOP brand.
Actionable Insights for Navigating Illinois Politics
If you’re trying to understand or participate in the Illinois political landscape, don’t just look at the top-of-the-ticket results. The real action is often in the primaries and the local boards.
Track the Suburban Shift: Keep an eye on DuPage and Lake Counties. These are the true indicators of whether Illinois stays "Deep Blue" or moves back toward "Purple." If Republicans can't start winning 45-50% of the vote in these areas, the state's status won't change.
Follow the Money: Look at the Illinois State Board of Elections filings. You’ll see that the vast majority of political fundraising comes from a few blocks in the Loop and the wealthy North Shore suburbs. Money usually dictates the legislative agenda in Springfield.
Engage Locally: Because the state is so lopsided at the executive level, many of the most impactful decisions—property taxes, school board policies, and zoning—happen in local municipalities. In many parts of Illinois, the "real" election happens in the Democratic primary, not the general election.
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Understand the Legislative Map: Every ten years, the redistricting process (gerrymandering) occurs. Since Democrats control the state legislature and the Governor's office, they draw the maps. This essentially "locks in" the blue status of the state for a decade at a time by grouping Republican voters into fewer districts.
The reality is that Chicago isn't a state, but it is the heartbeat of Illinois. As long as the city remains a Democratic powerhouse and the suburbs continue their leftward trend, the "Blue State" label is here to stay. It’s a fascinating, often lopsided, and always loud political environment that reflects the broader tensions of the entire country.