You’ve probably seen the apocalyptic footage. Walls of orange haze swallowing New York, families fleeing Jasper in 2024, and those haunting satellite images of smoke plumes crossing the Atlantic. It’s natural to wonder, as we kick off 2026, is Canada still on fire?
The short answer? Right now, in the middle of January, the country isn't a tinderbox. But that doesn't mean the "fire" is gone. It's just hiding.
The Winter "Zombie" Reality
Most people think wildfires just die when the snow hits. I wish it were that simple. Honestly, the scariest part of the recent Canadian wildfire seasons isn't just the active flames; it's what's happening underground.
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We call them zombie fires. Scientists like Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth have been tracking how these blazes burrow into the deep, carbon-rich peat moss of the boreal forest. They can smolder under the snow for months, surviving temperatures as low as -50°C.
When the spring thaw happens, these fires don't need a lightning strike or a discarded cigarette to start. They just pop back up.
In 2025, Manitoba and Saskatchewan were absolutely hammered by these holdover fires. According to data from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS), over 8.3 million hectares burned last year. That’s essentially the second-worst season on record, trailing only the nightmare of 2023. So, while you won't see smoke on your local weather app today, the "seeds" for the 2026 season are already planted in the dirt.
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Why 2025 Changed the Conversation
Last year wasn't just another "bad year." It was a wake-up call. We saw over 6,000 wildfires across almost every province and territory.
- Manitoba and Saskatchewan: These two provinces bore the brunt of it, accounting for over half of the total area burned in 2025.
- The Human Cost: More than 85,000 people had to leave their homes last year. That includes a staggering number of First Nations communities—about three out of every five evacuees were from Indigenous land.
- The Price Tag: We're looking at billions. The 2024 Jasper fire alone cost around $1.23 billion in insured damages.
Basically, the "fire season" is becoming a "fire year." The boundaries are blurring.
The 2026 Outlook: What the Experts Are Seeing
If you’re looking at a map right now, you’ll see "Low" fire danger across the board. That’s expected. It’s January.
However, the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment for early 2026 points to a few critical factors. We’re currently in a weak La Niña state. For Western Canada, that usually means a wetter, colder winter, which is great news for dampening those zombie fires. Northern British Columbia and the Yukon have seen record-breaking cold recently—places like Faro hit -52.2°C in December.
But there’s a catch.
While the surface is freezing, the long-term soil moisture deficit in regions like the Peace River area remains a massive concern. If we get a fast spring melt followed by a hot May, we could see a repeat of 2023 or 2025.
It's Not Just About the Trees
The impact of these fires stretches way beyond the forest.
Wildfire smoke is a global traveler. A study published in The Guardian just this month noted that the smoke from Canada's 2023 season was linked to thousands of premature deaths, not just in Canada, but as far away as Europe. The fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) is small enough to enter your bloodstream.
Then there's the economy. When the smoke gets thick, trains slow down. Grain shipments to the Port of Vancouver get delayed. Tourism in the Rockies takes a nosedive because, let's be real, nobody wants to hike through a grey fog.
How to Stay Prepared in 2026
If you live in or near a forested area, "waiting and seeing" is a bad strategy. Here is what's actually happening on the ground to get ready for the 2026 season:
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- Prescribed Burns: Cities like Edmonton have started doing their own controlled burns within city limits. It looks scary, but it clears out the "fuel" that leads to uncontrollable blazes.
- The FireSmart Program: This is the gold standard for homeowners. It’s basically about making your property "fire-resistant"—clearing needles from gutters and keeping woodpiles away from the house.
- New Tech: While Canada is waiting on a new fleet of water bombers (not expected until 2029), provinces are leaning harder on satellite-detected "hotspot" tracking to kill fires before they grow.
So, is Canada still on fire? Not in the way that makes headlines today. But the landscape has changed. The drought is still there, the peat is still smoldering in spots, and the climate is getting more erratic.
Next Steps for You:
Check the FireSmoke.ca forecast regularly if you have respiratory issues, even in the "shoulder" seasons of April and October. If you own property in a high-risk zone, download the FireSmart Canada app to walk through a home assessment before the spring melt begins. Knowledge is the only thing that travels faster than a wildfire.