If you’re checking the TV schedule today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, looking for number 6 in red and pewter, I’ve got some bad news. Baker Mayfield is not playing today. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are officially out of the postseason after a chaotic end to the 2025-26 regular season that saw them tumble from the top of the NFC South.
It’s a weird feeling. For a good chunk of the year, it looked like Baker was a lock for the MVP conversation. Then the wheels just sort of fell off.
Today’s Divisional Round schedule features the Houston Texans taking on the New England Patriots at 3 PM ET, followed by the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Chicago Bears at 6:30 PM ET. The Bucs, meanwhile, are already looking at mock drafts and surgical schedules. Honestly, the way this season ended for Tampa was nothing short of a car crash in slow motion.
Why Baker Mayfield is Watching from the Couch
The question of is Baker Mayfield playing usually comes down to health, but this time it’s purely about the standings. Tampa Bay finished behind the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. Yeah, you read that right. Bryce Young and the Panthers snagged the division title with an 8-9 record after the Bucs crumbled down the stretch.
It wasn’t just one thing. It was everything.
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- The Injury Bug: Baker spent the last month of the season held together by athletic tape. He was dealing with injuries to both shoulders, his right bicep, and his knee.
- Turnover Trouble: After throwing only three interceptions in his first ten games, Mayfield tossed eight in the final seven games.
- Coaching Carousel: He was working with his third offensive coordinator in three years. That kind of instability eventually catches up to you.
The Health Toll: What Really Happened
Mayfield is tough. Maybe too tough for his own good. By the time the Week 18 "do-or-die" game against Carolina rolled around, the injury report was a novel. He was limited in practice for weeks with that throwing shoulder issue.
Local reporters like Rick Stroud and the crew at JoeBucsFan have been debating whether Todd Bowles should have benched him sooner to let him heal. But with the backup situation being what it was—especially after the team moved on from Kyle Trask—there wasn't much of a safety net.
Baker finished the 2025 season with 3,693 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. On paper, those are solid numbers. In reality, the "Good Baker" we saw during the 5-1 start vanished, replaced by a guy who clearly couldn't drive the ball downfield like he used to.
What’s Next for the Bucs and Number 6?
Now we get to the messy part. The business part.
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Baker is entering the final year of his three-year, $100 million contract in 2026. He’s set to hit the cap for a massive $51 million. That is a staggering number for a team that just missed the playoffs in the weakest division in football.
The 2026 QB Outlook
- The Draft: There is heavy buzz that Tampa might look at a rookie. Names like Trinidad Chambliss from Ole Miss are already being linked to the Bucs in the early rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft.
- The Extension: If the Bucs don’t extend him, Baker essentially becomes a "lame duck" quarterback.
- The Roster: Key players like Mike Evans aren't getting any younger, and Tristan Wirfs is coming off a brutal battle with turf toe.
The 2026 schedule is already set. We know the Bucs will be playing a second-place schedule, which includes a road trip to Dallas and home games against both Los Angeles teams. It’s not going to be easier than last year.
Actionable Insights for Bucs Fans
If you're wondering how to handle the "post-Baker" postseason, here's the reality check.
Watch the Divisional Games: Keep a close eye on the Rams vs. Bears game today. The Rams are a team the Bucs will face next year, and seeing how their defense handles a mobile quarterback might give a hint as to what Tampa needs to fix.
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Monitor the Injury Reports: We expect a formal update on Baker’s off-season surgery status within the next ten days. If he undergoes labrum surgery on that right shoulder, his availability for 2026 OTAs becomes a huge question mark.
Draft Season is Here: Start looking at the quarterback prospects in the 15-45 range. Unless Tampa trades up, that’s where they’ll likely be hunting for Mayfield's eventual successor or a high-end backup who can actually win a game if Baker’s shoulder flares up again.
The Bucs' season is over, but the Baker Mayfield drama is just getting started. It’s going to be a long, loud off-season in Tampa.