If you look at a presidential map from the last fifty years, Alaska is almost always a solid, unmoving block of red. It’s the kind of visual that makes people assume the state is a predictable conservative bastion. But if you actually live here—or even if you just look at the weird, wild results of the last few election cycles—you’ll realize that the question of is Alaska a red or blue state isn't a simple binary. Honestly, it’s a bit of a trick question.
Alaska is a place where a "red" voter might spend their weekend protesting a new mine, and a "blue" voter likely owns three different rifles and a chest freezer full of moose meat. It’s weird. It’s fiercely independent. And while the GOP usually wins the big trophy in November, the ground is shifting in ways that have both national parties scratching their heads.
The Raw Numbers: A Crimson Baseline
Let’s get the obvious part out of the way. In the 2024 General Election, Donald Trump carried Alaska with roughly 54.5% of the vote. Kamala Harris pulled in about 41.4%. That’s a 13-point gap. In any other state, we’d call that a landslide and move on. Since 1964, Alaska has gone Republican in every single presidential election. That is a 60-year streak.
But here is where it gets interesting.
If you look at the voter registration data from late 2025 and early 2026, the largest "party" in Alaska isn’t the Republicans or the Democrats. It’s the unaffiliated and undeclared voters. We are talking about nearly 60% of the entire electorate. In Alaska, being "independent" isn't a centrist compromise; it’s a lifestyle choice. People here hate being told what to do by Lower 48 party bosses.
The Ranked Choice Revolution
You can't talk about whether Alaska is red or blue without talking about Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) and the open primary system. This is the secret sauce that makes Alaska’s politics so different from, say, Wyoming or Idaho.
In 2020, Alaskans narrowly approved a system where everyone runs on one ballot, and the top four move to the general. Then, voters rank them. In late 2024, there was a massive effort to repeal this system through Measure 2. It was a nail-biter. National groups poured money into the state to kill it, but Alaskans—specifically powered by a huge "No" vote in rural and Alaska Native communities—opted to keep it.
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Why does this matter? Because RCV allows for "ticket-splitting" on steroids. In 2022, this system helped elect a conservative Republican Governor (Mike Dunleavy), a moderate Republican Senator (Lisa Murkowski), and a moderate Democratic Congresswoman (Mary Peltola) all on the same day.
That doesn't happen in "red" states.
The Geography of the Vote: Cities vs. The Bush
Alaska’s political map is a patchwork. If you’re in the Mat-Su Valley (Wasilla and Palmer), you are in deep red country. This is the heart of the conservative base, where traditional GOP values and "leave me alone" libertarianism blend together.
Then you have The Bush.
Rural Alaska—areas like the North Slope, the Bering Strait, and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta—is a political unicorn. These regions often lean Democratic, but not for the reasons a voter in Seattle or Brooklyn might. It’s about subsistence rights. It’s about tribal sovereignty. It’s about fisheries. In the 2024 House race, while Trump was winning the state comfortably, Nick Begich III (R) had to fight tooth and nail against Mary Peltola (D) because she maintained a massive hold on these rural areas.
Anchorage is the real battleground. The state's largest city has been trending "purple" for years. While the outskirts remain conservative, the downtown and midtown corridors are increasingly electing Democrats to the state legislature. Juneau, the capital, is essentially a blue island in a sea of mountains, much like a miniature version of Burlington or Portland.
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Why the "Red" Label is Fading (Sorta)
Is Alaska a red state? On paper, yes. But the "red" here is a very specific shade of salmon-pink.
Consider the Alaska State Legislature. For years, the state house has been governed by "multiparty coalitions." These aren't just Republicans in charge. It’s a mix of Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans who jump ship from their own party to form a governing majority. They do this to protect the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)—the annual check every Alaskan gets—and to keep the state's budget from imploding.
There is a growing "moderate middle" that actually runs the show in Juneau. These politicians often ignore national culture wars to focus on things that actually matter to people living in sub-zero temperatures:
- High energy costs in rural villages.
- The collapsing king salmon populations.
- The crumbling infrastructure of the Port of Alaska.
- Protecting the PFD at all costs.
Looking Toward 2026
As we move through 2026, all eyes are on the U.S. Senate race. Dan Sullivan (R) is the incumbent, and he’s generally seen as a safe bet. However, because of Alaska's unique system, he can't just run to the right. He has to appeal to those 60% of independent voters.
Lauren French, a senior political advisor, recently noted that Alaska is far more of an "independent state" than a "hard Republican state." This complexity is why organizations like the Cook Political Report have occasionally moved Alaska races toward the "Leans Republican" or "Toss-up" categories when they would be "Safe Red" anywhere else.
The Verdict: Red, Blue, or Something Else?
If you had to pick a color, Alaska is Burgundy.
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It’s a deep, dark red that has been stained by enough blue and "independent grey" to make it look unique. It’s a state that will vote for Donald Trump by double digits but will also elect a pro-choice, pro-fish Democrat like Mary Peltola to Congress.
It’s a state where the Republican Governor often finds himself at odds with his own Republican-led legislature.
What most people get wrong is thinking that Alaska’s red status is a sign of conformity. It’s actually the opposite. Alaskans vote for candidates they like personally, regardless of the letter next to their name.
Actionable Insights for Following Alaska Politics
To truly understand which way the wind is blowing in the Last Frontier, don't just look at the top-of-the-ticket results.
- Watch the "Cross-Over" Vote: In 2024, about 27% of Alaskans crossed party lines in their top two choices on the RCV ballot. If that number grows, the state is becoming more "purple."
- Monitor the Coalition in Juneau: Check who is actually in the "Majority" in the State House. If it’s a bipartisan coalition, the state's policy will remain centrist, regardless of who is in the White House.
- Follow the PFD Debates: In Alaska, the "Permanent Fund Dividend" is the ultimate political third rail. Any candidate—red or blue—who suggests cutting the check to pay for government services is usually toast.
- Look at Rural Turnout: If rural Alaska Native communities turn out in high numbers, "Blue" or "Independent" candidates have a much higher chance of pulling off an upset.
Alaska will likely stay in the Republican column for the 2028 presidential race. But in the halls of the state capitol and in the halls of Congress, the state will continue to be a wild card that refuses to fit into a neat little box.