The question of whether is Aaron Rodgers going to the Steelers used to be a fun "what if" scenario for the future. Then it actually happened. Now, as we sit in the cold reality of January 2026, the question has shifted. It’s no longer about whether he’ll arrive, but rather if he’s packing his bags to leave for good.
Honestly, the last few days in Pittsburgh have been a total whirlwind.
One minute, we’re watching a 42-year-old Rodgers lead the Steelers to an AFC North title. The next, Mike Tomlin—the man who basically willed Rodgers to Pittsburgh in the first place—is stepping down after 19 seasons. It’s a gut-punch for a fanbase that finally thought they’d found a bridge to the next era.
The Mike Tomlin Factor: Why Everything Just Changed
If you want to understand the current rumors about Rodgers and the Steelers, you have to look at the guy who isn’t there anymore. Rodgers didn't just pick Pittsburgh because he liked the yellow bridge or the Primanti Bros. sandwiches. He came to play for Mike Tomlin.
Ian Rapoport basically confirmed what everyone was fearing on NFL GameDay Morning this Saturday. With Tomlin out, the "Rodgers in Pittsburgh" experiment is likely done.
Steelers president Art Rooney II didn't exactly hide the truth this week either. He told reporters that Rodgers’ future is heavily tied to Tomlin's departure. Think about it. You’re 42. You’ve got four MVPs. Are you really going to stick around for a "rebuilding" year under a brand-new head coach you’ve never worked with? Probably not.
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A Quick Reality Check on the 2025 Season
- The Highs: Rodgers completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns. He looked... well, like Aaron Rodgers. Efficient. Controlled.
- The Lows: That 30-6 Wild Card loss to the Houston Texans was brutal. Rodgers threw for only 146 yards. His last pass? A pick-six.
- The Stats: 7 interceptions all year. Not bad, but his pocket presence has definitely waned. He’s getting rid of the ball faster than ever because he simply can't move like he used to.
Where Does Aaron Rodgers Go From Here?
If he’s not a Steeler in 2026, what’s left? The rumors are already flying, and they’re kinda wild.
Some people are pointing toward the Minnesota Vikings. It would be the ultimate "Brett Favre" move, wouldn't it? The Vikings have J.J. McCarthy, but Kevin O’Connell has been vocal about wanting "competition" or a veteran presence. If Rodgers wants one last ride with a playoff-ready roster, Minneapolis is just a short flight from Green Bay (though the Packers fans might never forgive him).
Then there’s the "R" word. Retirement.
Rodgers was reportedly in tears during the team meeting when Tomlin announced he was leaving. He was heard apologizing for coming up short. That doesn't sound like a guy who's itching to learn a new playbook in a fourth city.
Is Aaron Rodgers Going to the Steelers for One More Year?
Despite the Rapoport reports, there is a tiny, 30% sliver of hope (if you're a betting person) that he stays. The Steelers want him back. They don't have a plan.
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Behind Rodgers, the depth chart is... thin.
- Mason Rudolph: The reliable backup who keeps coming back.
- Will Howard: A rookie with upside, but is he ready for the AFC North?
- The Unknown: The 2026 Draft class is reportedly "weak" at QB, according to scouts.
If the new coach is someone like Klay Kubiak (currently a hot name in the search), maybe Rodgers sees a system he likes. But let's be real: the odds are stacked against it. The Steelers are looking at a youth movement. They’re looking at the draft, maybe even trading up for someone like Fernando Mendoza from Indiana if they can find the capital.
What the Experts are Saying
Still Curtain’s Lior Lampert put it bluntly: Rodgers headlines the list of players who "definitely won't be back" in 2026. It’s not just about Rodgers, either. Adam Thielen is retiring. The roster is aging out.
The Steelers aren't just losing a quarterback; they're losing their identity.
Actionable Steps for Steelers Fans
Since the Aaron Rodgers era in Pittsburgh is likely ending with a whimper, here is how you should prepare for the 2026 offseason:
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- Watch the Coaching Search: The next HC hire will dictate the QB direction. If it’s a defensive-minded coach, expect a veteran "bridge" QB like Mac Jones or a return to the ground game.
- Keep an eye on the 2026 NFL Draft: Since the draft is being held in Pittsburgh this year, Omar Khan is expected to be aggressive. Look for the Steelers to scout Ty Simpson (Alabama) or Cade Klubnik (Clemson) as potential future faces of the franchise.
- Don't buy that Rodgers jersey just yet: Unless it's on the clearance rack. The "One and Done" narrative is the strongest one right now.
The truth is, Rodgers gave Pittsburgh a fun season. They won the division. They hosted a playoff game. But the magic was tied to Mike Tomlin. Without that connection, the Rodgers-Steelers marriage has likely reached its "irreconcilable differences" stage.
Whether he heads to the Vikings or heads to a dark room for another retreat, the black and gold chapter is almost certainly closed. Pittsburgh is moving on, and for the first time in 20 years, it’s going to be a complete ground-up rebuild.
Stay tuned to the local beat reporters like Brooke Pryor or Gerry Dulac. They'll have the word the second the contract officially expires or the retirement papers hit the league office. For now, enjoy the memories of that AFC North title, because the 2026 offseason is going to be a long one.
Current Status: Free Agent (Expected)
2025 Stats: 3,322 Yds, 24 TD, 7 INT
Most Likely 2026 Outcome: Retirement or Minnesota Vikings