Honestly, it’s the hope that kills you. If you’re an Ireland fan, you’ve spent the last few years convinced that the old hierarchy was dead. We had the 2022 series win in New Zealand. We had the world number one ranking. We even had that 17-game winning streak. But then 2024 and 2025 happened, and suddenly, the world feels a bit more "normal" again—at least if you’re wearing black.
The recent Ireland v New Zealand matches have been a brutal reality check.
In November 2024, the All Blacks came to Dublin and snapped Ireland’s 19-game home winning run with a gritty 23-13 victory. Then, just a couple of months ago in November 2025, they did it again. This time, it was at Soldier Field in Chicago—the very place where Ireland first broke the curse back in 2016. New Zealand walked away with a 26-13 win, and it wasn’t even that close by the end.
What Went Wrong in Chicago?
Everyone wanted a repeat of 2016. The atmosphere at Soldier Field was electric, but the game turned into a nightmare for Ireland almost immediately. Two minutes in, Tadhg Beirne decided to channel his inner NFL linebacker and leveled Beauden Barrett with a shoulder check. It was a moment of madness. The yellow card was upgraded to red by the TMO, and just like that, Ireland were playing 14-man rugby against the most dangerous team on the planet.
Despite the man disadvantage, Ireland actually led 10-7 at half-time. Tadhg Furlong crashed over for a try, and Jack Crowley was slotting kicks like he’d been doing it for decades. But you can only hold back the tide for so long.
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The Second Half Collapse
The second half was basically a clinic in "Chaos Theory" by the All Blacks. They didn't panic. They just waited for the gaps to appear. And boy, did they appear. New Zealand scored three unanswered tries in the second forty.
- Tamaiti Williams (61')
- Wallace Sititi (66')
- Cam Roigard (76')
Roigard’s try was the dagger. He spotted a gap at the base of the scrum, sold a dummy that sent the Irish defense to the shops, and stepped through for a brilliant individual effort.
The Damian McKenzie Factor
If we look back at the 2024 clash in Dublin, it wasn't flashy tries that did the damage—it was the boot of Damian McKenzie. He kicked six penalties that night. Ireland were "sloppy" and "error-prone," according to Andy Farrell, and McKenzie just kept punishing them.
It’s a pattern. Ireland plays beautiful, structured, phase-based rugby. They want to keep the ball for 20 phases and wear you down. New Zealand? They’re happy to let you have the ball, wait for you to make a tiny mistake at the breakdown, and then kill you in two passes.
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The Statistics Tell a Story
When you compare the stats from the November 2025 Chicago game, the gap in efficiency is startling:
New Zealand gained 479 meters compared to Ireland’s 285. They made 6 clean breaks while Ireland only managed 2. Most telling of all? New Zealand’s ruck success rate was 98%. When they want the ball, they get it. When they have it, they keep it. Ireland, meanwhile, struggled with a lineout that Dan Sheehan admitted was a "lottery" that night.
Why Can’t Ireland Get Over the Hump?
It’s the big question. Why does this specific matchup—Ireland v New Zealand—always seem to end in heartbreak for the Men in Green lately?
- The Mental Hurdle: Even when Ireland were the best team in the world on paper (2023), the All Blacks found a way in that World Cup quarter-final. It’s a psychological edge that’s hard to quantify but easy to see.
- Discipline: In the last two meetings, Ireland conceded 13 penalties (Dublin 2024) and a red card (Chicago 2025). You cannot beat the All Blacks while beating yourselves.
- Depth and Impact: Scott Robertson (Razor) has mastered the art of the "Bomb Squad" style bench. Bringing on guys like Wallace Sititi and Pasilio Tosi in the final quarter changes the geometry of the game.
What Most People Get Wrong
There’s a narrative that Ireland is "fading." I don't buy it. They’re still a top-three team in the world. The problem is that New Zealand has evolved under Robertson. They’ve moved away from the aimless wide-wide stuff and brought back a hard, physical edge in the tight five.
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They are out-scrummaging Ireland. That’s the real shocker. In Chicago, the Irish scrum—usually a rock—collapsed in the final ten minutes.
Looking Ahead to 2026
The rivalry isn't cooling down. We already have a date circled on the calendar: July 18, 2026. Ireland travels back to the graveyard of champions—Eden Park in Auckland.
New Zealand hasn't lost at Eden Park since 1994. If Ireland wants to prove that the recent losses in Dublin and Chicago were just blips, that’s where they have to do it. But based on what we saw from Wallace Sititi and Cam Roigard recently, the All Blacks look like they’re entering another golden era.
Actionable Insights for Fans
- Watch the Breakdown: Next time these two play, don't watch the ball. Watch the "guard" and "bodyguard" positions at the ruck. New Zealand is currently winning the "speed to ball" race, which is why Ireland’s attack looks stuttery.
- Keep an eye on Sam Prendergast: He got a cameo in Chicago and showed flashes. With Jack Crowley being the "steady" hand, Prendergast might be the "chaos" factor Ireland needs to mirror the Kiwi style.
- Discipline is the Metric: If Ireland concedes more than 8 penalties in a game against the All Blacks, they lose. It's almost a mathematical certainty at this point.
The gap isn't wide, but it’s there. And until Ireland cleans up the "moments of madness" like Beirne's red card or the lineout wobbles, the All Blacks will keep enjoying their trips to Dublin and Chicago.
To get a better sense of how the tactical landscape is shifting, you should go back and re-watch the final 20 minutes of the Chicago 2025 match—specifically focusing on the All Blacks' support lines. It explains more about their dominance than any scoreboard ever could.